Forward Guidance
Blockworks
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBWFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceForward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
Episodes
Mentioned books
24 snips
Jul 30, 2025 • 56min
The Fed Is Fueling A New Inflation Wave | Danny Dayan
In this discussion, Danny Dayan, a global macro hedge fund expert, explores how the Fed's approach may be fueling a new wave of inflation. He reveals the breakdown of traditional rate transmission mechanisms and the impact of immigration and tariffs on the labor market. Dayan warns of a structurally weaker dollar and a potential 'doom loop' dynamic. He shares his portfolio strategies while highlighting the challenges of interpreting contemporary macroeconomic data and the need for the Fed to adapt to changing financial conditions.
35 snips
Jul 26, 2025 • 52min
Welcome to Peak Monetary Policy Theater | Weekly Roundup
This week, the hosts delve into the drama surrounding the Federal Reserve's independence, sparked by a visit from Trump. They explore the effects of this politicization on future monetary policy. The conversation shifts to the surprising divergence in inflation expectations and commodity prices. With real yield correlations breaking down, they analyze the evolving role of the dollar. Humor adds a light touch as they navigate the complexities of market dynamics, highlighting challenges in housing affordability and the intricacies of debt management.
31 snips
Jul 25, 2025 • 57min
Threat to Fed Independence is Un-Anchoring Inflation Expectations | Jens Nordvig
Jens Nordvig, a PhD Economist and founder of Exante Data, discusses the challenges facing the Federal Reserve amidst waning independence and inflation concerns. He highlights how shifting capital flows and trade tariffs are reshaping global investment and troubling the dollar's status. Nordvig explains the trend of de-dollarization, with central banks diversifying reserves away from the U.S. dollar and increasing gold holdings. He also analyzes how these dynamics could signal a long-term downtrend for the dollar, urging investors to reconsider their strategies in this evolving landscape.
68 snips
Jul 18, 2025 • 1h 6min
The Great Ponzi-fication Of Markets | Weekly Roundup
Le Shrub, Chief Meme Strategist and author of Shrub Stack, discusses his barbell portfolio strategy and the 'Golden Age of Grift' thesis. He examines bond market dysfunction and why Ethereum is emerging as a high-yield asset. The conversation dives into risk scenarios, including potential yield shocks and the influence of private equity and crypto in 401(k)s to stabilize the system. With humor, Le Shrub critiques market behaviors, hedge fund strategies, and the challenges of investing in a rapidly shifting economic landscape.
72 snips
Jul 16, 2025 • 1h 2min
We’re Entering The Final Phase Of Fiscal Dominance | David Beckworth
David Beckworth, a Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center and host of Macro Musings, discusses the rising threats of fiscal dominance where government solvency overtakes price stability. He highlights alarming debt levels and persistent deficits. The conversation dives into the role of stablecoins, Treasury strategies, and the importance of reforming the Fed's operations to maintain its credibility. Beckworth warns that without significant structural changes, the independence of the Federal Reserve could be jeopardized, impacting economic stability.
50 snips
Jul 9, 2025 • 1h 11min
The Only Assets That Beat Fiat Debasement | Raoul Pal & Julien Bittel
Raoul Pal, co-founder of Real Vision, and Julien Bittel, head of macro research at GMI, dive deep into their innovative "Everything Code" framework. They reveal how global debt cycles and liquidity dictate asset prices while highlighting the alarming rate of fiat debasement. The duo examines the societal impact of AI on labor, the evolution of recessions, and the likelihood of escalating liquidity similar to past asset booms. Plus, they explore why tech stocks and cryptocurrencies stand out in today's tumultuous financial landscape.
14 snips
Jul 4, 2025 • 35min
Unpacking The Crypto Treasury Meta
Dan Kang, who heads investor relations for DeFi DevCorp and has a rich background with Kraken, joins Tom Lee from Fundstrat, a Bitcoin advocate for over eight years, and David Greider, a partner at Finality Capital, to discuss the rise of crypto treasury vehicles. They explore how institutions like MicroStrategy are innovating in crypto acquisition, the shift from equity to novel debt structures, and the risks involved if market valuations shift. Their insights illuminate the transformative power of crypto strategies in today's financial landscape.
86 snips
Jul 4, 2025 • 1h 13min
All Roads Lead To Debasement | Weekly Roundup
This discussion delves into surprising labor market data and the hidden impacts of immigration on the workforce. The hosts critique both political parties for their failures while exploring the looming deficit and its implications. They highlight the U.S. shifting towards 'EM-ification' and the challenges of inequality. Currency debasement is framed as inevitable, raising questions about the future of the dollar. With insights into market volatility and government policy effects, the conversation captures a complex economic landscape.
37 snips
Jul 2, 2025 • 36min
Bringing The Long Tail Of Markets Onchain
Austin Campbell, a professor at NYU Stern with extensive experience in finance and stablecoins, joins the discussion on the intersection of TradFi and crypto. He explores how instant settlement and transparency can revolutionize traditional markets. Campbell delves into stablecoin demand dynamics and the emerging landscape of tokenized structured products. The conversation also touches on the advantages of perpetual swaps over options and the practical limits of decentralization, revealing exciting innovations shaping the future of finance.
53 snips
Jun 30, 2025 • 34min
The Stablecoin Future, Macro Moves & Big Tech Embracing Crypto | Permissionless IV Recap
The discussion kicks off with insights from the Permissionless IV conference, highlighting key trends in cryptocurrency. They dive into the future of stablecoins and their crucial role in addressing fiscal deficits. Big Tech's ambitions in the crypto space are unpacked, raising questions about centralization. The episode also reflects candidly on past predictions, revealing lessons learned amid the shifting landscape of decentralized finance and the competition with traditional financial institutions.
