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Forward Guidance

Latest episodes

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Sep 17, 2024 • 52min

Fed Is Easing Into Major Regime Shift | Darius Dale

Darius Dale, an expert on Federal Reserve policies and global macroeconomics, shares his insights on critical economic shifts. He discusses the potential for front-loading interest rate cuts and challenges the recession narrative concerning the labor market. Dale explores the evolving fiscal impulse and its significance for growth, alongside the effects of Japan's monetary policies and China's economic state on global markets. With a keen eye on asset allocation, he emphasizes strategic decision-making amidst changing market regimes.
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Sep 13, 2024 • 1h 7min

Richard Koo: China’s “Balance Sheet Recession” Has Already Started | (Jack’s Final Episode)

Richard Koo, a senior adviser at CSIS and chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, shares insights on the onset of China's balance sheet recession. Koo explains how this economic phenomenon shifts focus from profit maximization to debt reduction, echoing lessons from Japan's past. He discusses China's economic model and its reliance on exports, highlighting the difficulties of navigating trade deficits. The conversation touches on the implications of persistent trade issues and the risks associated with China's economic strategies.
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Sep 12, 2024 • 1h 28min

CDO Whisperer Brett Jefferson on Securitization Markets and TruPS CDO Relics

Brett Jefferson, a leading expert in securitization and trust preferred CDOs, shares insights on niche investment opportunities in the podcast. He discusses the intricacies of trust preferred CDOs, particularly their role during economic downturns and how his fund capitalizes on inefficiencies in the market. Jefferson also delves into the dynamics of private credit, the risks of collateralized loan obligations, and the impact of regulatory changes since the 2008 financial crisis, offering a unique perspective on the evolving landscape of structured finance.
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Sep 11, 2024 • 1h 21min

Structured Credit Maven Laila Kollmorgen on CLO’s Rally and Opportunity To Differentiate As Fundamentals Soften and Prices Climb | VanEck Fireside Chat #6

Laila Kollmorgen, a Portfolio Manager specializing in CLO Tranche at Pinebridge Investments, shares insights on the booming market for collateralized loan obligations (CLOs). She discusses their appealing structure and how they outperformed during recent market turmoil. The conversation delves into the selective investment opportunities arising as credit fundamentals soften and prices rise. Laila also compares CLOs to CDOs, emphasizing their resilience in the face of past financial crises and the critical factors in making informed investment decisions.
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Sep 10, 2024 • 1h 22min

Bitcoin's Path To $3 Million Dollars | Matthew Sigel

Matthew Sigel, a leading voice in digital assets research at VanEck, offers compelling insights into Bitcoin's future as a reserve asset. He discusses its potential to reach $3 million and the growing importance of Bitcoin among younger demographics. The conversation touches on miners adapting to new technologies, including AI, and their financial implications. Sigel also dives into regulatory challenges and the emergence of stablecoins, painting a vivid picture of Bitcoin's evolving role in the global economy.
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Sep 6, 2024 • 1h 7min

Gold Stocks Are Undervalued | Imaru Casanova (VanEck Fireside Chat #4)

Imaru Casanova, a Portfolio Manager specializing in Gold and Precious Metals at VanEck, discusses the undervaluation of gold stocks amidst rising gold prices. She highlights the importance of cash flow over earnings in mining evaluations and emphasizes common mistakes investors make. Casanova also delves into the effects of jurisdiction on mining company valuations and the unique strategies of royalty companies. The conversation uncovers both opportunities and risks in the dynamic gold market, making it a critical listen for investors.
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Sep 5, 2024 • 1h 23min

There Will Be No Recession | Jonny Mathews

Jonny Mathews, an expert in economic trends and market opportunities, argues that a recession isn't on the horizon. He highlights how real consumption is expected to drive GDP higher in Q3 and anticipates a moderation in unemployment. Mathews discusses promising market opportunities in fixed income, the gold market's dynamics, and the outlook for the UK and China. He also touches on the role of AI in productivity and the implications of corporate earnings, presenting a compelling case for optimism in the current economic landscape.
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Sep 5, 2024 • 2h 4min

The Labor Market Is Cooling | Talmon Smith & Jack Farley (Driving Back from Camp Kotok)

Talmon Smith, a New York Times contributor and economic analyst, teams up with financial journalist Jack Farley, to explore the cooling labor market. They discuss the implications of interest rates on hiring and the concept of a soft landing for the economy. The duo dives into modern monetary theory (MMT), dissecting its role in government finance. They also analyze the challenges faced by first-time home buyers and the dynamics of private credit in today's economic landscape.
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Aug 29, 2024 • 1h 17min

India Is The Most Promising Emerging Market | Angus Shillington

Angus Shillington, an emerging markets investment expert, sheds light on India's standout potential as the most promising emerging market. He discusses how India's demographic advantages contribute to its growth and why it has outperformed the S&P 500. The conversation dives into the risks associated with Chinese investments, particularly due to regulatory issues. Shillington also highlights the booming semiconductor market and contrasts the stability of Indian equities with the volatility in China, making a compelling case for strategic investment in India.
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Aug 27, 2024 • 30min

Markets Will Get A Deficit President No Matter What | Jim Bianco & Jeremy Schwartz

In this insightful discussion, Jim Bianco, a financial markets expert, and Jeremy Schwartz, an investment strategist, tackle key issues affecting today’s economy. They explore the Federal Reserve’s policy and its potential impact on inflation, as well as the concept of a neutral interest rate. The duo delves into the significance of market deficits and political electoral shifts, emphasizing their implications for stock and bond performance. The conversation is packed with analysis on how these factors may shape future investment strategies.

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