Forward Guidance

Mohamed El-Erian, an influential economist and global finance expert, offers keen insights on the U.S. debt crisis and inflationary pressures. He discusses four key strategies for addressing national debt and the implications of stablecoins in the economy. The conversation touches on Bitcoin’s potential as a neutral reserve asset and examines complex economic dynamics affecting growth. El-Erian also explores the Federal Reserve's challenges in maintaining its inflation target amid evolving market conditions.

Matt Hougan, a prominent figure in the crypto industry and currently with Bitwise, shares his bullish outlook for Bitcoin in 2025. He highlights the crucial role stablecoins will play in U.S. debt markets and discusses why the U.S. government needs them. The conversation also covers the optimism of institutions compared to retail investors, Bitcoin's rising correlation to gold, and potential growth within decentralized finance. It's an enlightening talk about the future of crypto and its integration into mainstream finance.

This week, we discuss the latest inflation data, the reversal of US exceptionalism, and Trump’s bold tariff bet potentially backfiring. We also delve into how we’re thinking about yields, whether 60/40 is compelling right now, why we’re in a crypto bear market, and more. Enjoy!—Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthompFollow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceForward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx—Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1e0GanjFY1lh2TKOFL7QQwGi6KY9nWhwl/view?usp=sharing—Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125—Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission!https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york—Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.—Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:42) Upcoming Digital Asset Summit(02:16) CPI Takeaways(05:51) Reversal of US Exceptionalism(08:45) Ledger Ad(09:34) Recession vs Growth Scare(14:11) Trump's Bold Tariff Game(20:09) The Long Foreign Markets-Short US Trade(24:36) Ledger Ad(25:21) The Long Foreign Markets-Short US Trade (Con't)(31:11) It's a Bear Market(32:36) Bitcoin and Crypto Market Analysis(34:26) Bond Market & Yields(39:11) 60/40 Portfolio(42:34) Hedging Strategies(45:08) Crypto Market Prospects—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro at Stonex, shares his keen insights on inflation forecasts and macroeconomic trends. He discusses the economic challenges posed by Trump's shifting tariffs and their impact on inventory management. Deluard critiques media narratives on stagflation and offers a fresh perspective on consumer resilience. He also analyzes the recent drop in Treasury yields and the implications of rising foreign yields on U.S. markets, highlighting the evolving landscape of global investments.

This week, we discuss the Trump trade shakeout, whether fear and volatility are presenting great buying opportunities, and the bond market after February’s NFP. We also delve into the outlook for the oil market, the subsectors Tony’s watching, destructive Bitcoin thinking and more. Enjoy!—Follow Tony: https://x.com/TgMacroFollow Quinn: https://x.com/qthompFollow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceForward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx—Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1j8QLpaGApqV5sOpojjcRKCilxnOcrF7M/view?usp=sharing—Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125—Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission!https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york—Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.—Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(02:43) Bitcoin and Crypto Market(07:17) Equities and Recession Narratives(14:14) Ledger Ad(14:59) European Market Outlook(18:59) Thoughts on Buying the Dip(27:32) Ledger Ad(28:18) Bond Market and NFP(32:28) Oil Market Outlook(37:51) Equity Subsectors(40:10) Trading Strategies and Market Sentiment(43:52) Crypto Market Advice(48:45) Sectors that Will Lead Us Higher(51:37) Maintaining Emotional Composure in Trading(54:15) Learn More About Tony & Collab Plans—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Mohamed El-Erian, President of Queens College, Cambridge, shares his insights on the precarious economic landscape. He discusses the February jobs report, highlighting rising unemployment and the looming threat of stagflation. The conversation shifts to inflation trends, particularly in goods versus services, and the impact of tariffs on the economy. El-Erian also analyzes global dynamics, contrasting Europe’s unexpected growth with challenges in China and Japan. Finally, he explores Bitcoin's role in the macroeconomic scene, considering its potential as a digital asset.

Jeff deGraaf, founder of Renaissance Macro Research with over 35 years of market insight, discusses why he believes a recession is unlikely. He breaks down the current market regime and explores the resilience of various S&P sectors amid economic uncertainties. Jeff compares U.S. markets to those in Europe and China, examines the outlook for yields, credit spreads, and offers perspectives on both gold and Bitcoin. His analysis highlights the investment landscape for 2025, focusing on how policy uncertainty impacts market reactions.

Jim Carson, a macro investor known for his expertise in stagflation and market dynamics, joins the discussion. They explore how market declines typically lead economic downturns and the pivotal role interest rates play. The conversation touches on Trump's political impact on the economy, oil and gold outlooks, and the complexities surrounding inflation. Insights into large versus small-cap stock performance and a forecast for potential market drawdowns add depth to the analysis, making it a compelling listen for investors.

Andy Constan, a finance expert known for his insights on monetary policy, delves into the nuances of Quantitative Tightening 2.0. He emphasizes the Fed's shift in its SOMA portfolio and its effects on financial markets. Topics include the intricate ties between QT, the debt ceiling, and Treasury's management strategies. Andy also talks about the ramifications of long-term asset holdings, the deficit's impact on market stability, and the anti-growth nature of cryptocurrencies like DOGE. It's a deep dive into the future of our economic landscape.

This week dives into insights from the Fed Meeting Minutes, revealing tensions between monetary policy and the debt ceiling. The discussion covers the Treasury's new issuance strategies amidst quantitative tightening and the challenges of inflation trends affecting markets. Blockchain innovations are highlighted, showcasing a gas-free transaction model. As oil production stagnates, geopolitical influences reshape markets, while crypto lingers in a cautious space. Plus, the hosts share their excitement for the upcoming Canada-U.S. hockey showdown!