Forward Guidance Trump’s Tariffs Could Stall Growth Before 2026 Surge | Alfonso Peccatiello
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Aug 27, 2025 Alfonso Peccatiello, Founder of The Macro Compass and CIO of Palinoro Capital, dives into the complex relationship between Trump's tariffs and U.S. monetary policy. He discusses how political influences may impact the Federal Reserve and forecasts economic growth. The conversation also explores the implications of fiscal changes on financial markets, the effectiveness of QE versus fiscal deficits, and the roles of commodities and cryptocurrencies in today’s economy. It’s a lively discussion packed with insights for investors navigating these turbulent waters.
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Politics Can Reshape Fed Voting
- Political control of the Fed can change rate dynamics more than economic fundamentals.
- Alf expects Trump to steer FOMC composition toward dovish votes, shifting policy outcomes.
Front End vs Long-End Signals
- The front end of the yield curve reflects near-term Fed actions while the long end prices inflation and growth premia.
- Alf sees steepening and twist steepening as markets pricing political inflation risk at the long end.
Tilt Into High-Beta Nominal Growth Assets
- Consider allocating to uncapped exposures like metals and crypto when nominal growth and neutral policy collide.
- Alf highlights high-beta commodities and crypto as asymmetric plays if policy loosens and growth rises.