Forward Guidance
Blockworks
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBWFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceForward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
Episodes
Mentioned books
67 snips
Sep 12, 2025 • 55min
The Data Is Screaming Two-Speed Economy | Weekly Roundup
This week, the hosts discuss surprisingly low PPI data and the Fed's pivot from inflation concerns to labor issues. They unveil a troubling ‘two-speed’ U.S. economy, showcasing a stark division between booming sectors like AI and struggling Main Street. The conversation touches on the risks of mega-cap stocks and their buybacks, alongside the challenges facing young workers amid rising inequalities. Expect insights on market resilience and shifting investment trends as they navigate the complexities of today's economic landscape.
25 snips
Sep 10, 2025 • 45min
Former Barclays CEO’s Big Bet on Hyperliquid’s Explosive Growth | Bob Diamond & David Schamis
Bob Diamond, former CEO of Barclays and founder of Atlas Merchant Capital, and David Schamis, CIO and co-founder of the same firm, discuss their transition from traditional finance to the digital asset landscape. They dive into Hyperliquid’s rapid growth and innovative features like perpetual swaps and unique token buybacks. The conversation also touches on the regulatory environment for blockchain, the significant role of stablecoins, and how their firm is facilitating U.S. investors’ access to new financial opportunities.
89 snips
Sep 5, 2025 • 42min
The Fed Is Cornered By Stagflation After Jobs Collapse | Weekly Roundup
This week, market watchers are grappling with disappointing job growth numbers, raising concerns about the economy's direction. The potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is debated amidst rising stagflation worries. As tariffs' future hangs in the balance, the conversation turns to liquidity challenges in the economy. The allure of gold as an investment rises, signaling a need for protective strategies in uncertain times. Insights into the tech sector's relationship with AI add yet another layer to the discussion.
94 snips
Sep 3, 2025 • 56min
Why Everyone Keeps Misreading The New Macro Regime | Ben Kizemchuk
Ben Kizemchuk, a Portfolio Manager at Wellington Altus, presents his intriguing 'Four Fs' macro framework: Fiscal Dominance, Financial Repression, Fiat Currency, and Passive Flows. He reveals how these elements converge in today's economy, reshaping growth dynamics and stabilizing markets. Kizemchuk discusses the unexpected economic resilience following interest rate hikes and the critical role of government spending in promoting stability. He also explores the implications of an AI-driven future where stock markets and the economy become increasingly intertwined.
84 snips
Aug 29, 2025 • 56min
The Post-Summer Market Rotation is Here | Weekly Roundup
This week, the discussion focuses on the market shift post-Labor Day, highlighting increased volatility. There's an insightful look at inflation trends and the impact of systematic strategies on price movements. Listeners will learn about the intriguing rotation from large-cap to small-cap stocks. The complexities of government intervention in markets and comparisons between AI capital expenditure and historical gold cycles are also explored. The episode wraps up by analyzing significant treasury company holdings in Ethereum.
68 snips
Aug 27, 2025 • 48min
Trump’s Tariffs Could Stall Growth Before 2026 Surge | Alfonso Peccatiello
Alfonso Peccatiello, Founder of The Macro Compass and CIO of Palinoro Capital, dives into the complex relationship between Trump's tariffs and U.S. monetary policy. He discusses how political influences may impact the Federal Reserve and forecasts economic growth. The conversation also explores the implications of fiscal changes on financial markets, the effectiveness of QE versus fiscal deficits, and the roles of commodities and cryptocurrencies in today’s economy. It’s a lively discussion packed with insights for investors navigating these turbulent waters.
73 snips
Aug 21, 2025 • 53min
Will Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Break Markets? | Weekly Roundup
The discussion kicks off with anticipation for Powell's Jackson Hole speech, weighing its potential hawkish or dovish leanings on markets. There's an insightful dive into recent FOMC minutes and the impact of inflation expectations. The hosts tackle the curious decline in foreign participation in Treasury auctions and its implications for investors. They also dissect Trump’s plans regarding the Fed and examine the tug-of-war between recession risks and rising inflation, all while blending in some lighthearted banter.
82 snips
Aug 20, 2025 • 49min
Crypto Credit Markets Will Rewrite Risk Management | David Grider
David Grider, a Partner at Finality Capital Partners and a seasoned expert in both traditional finance and crypto investment, discusses his approach to managing a digital asset hedge fund. He highlights the rise of digital asset treasury companies and the transformative impact of new credit instruments on risk management. Grider also delves into how macro liquidity signals inform his strategies and the evolving dynamics of crypto derivatives that are reshaping institutional adoption in the crypto space.
131 snips
Aug 15, 2025 • 1h 8min
Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup
Brent Johnson, founder and CEO of Santiago Capital, shares insights on macroeconomics and his Dollar Milkshake Theory. He discusses the latest inflation data and warns of a possible 10–15% market correction, driven by upcoming rate cuts and political maneuvering. The conversation also highlights AI's dual impact on future productivity and inflation, along with the rising dynamics in gold mining stocks. Johnson urges investors to remain cautious and prepared for volatility amid changing economic tides.
29 snips
Aug 13, 2025 • 57min
Should We Be Worried About Jobs Report Revisions? | Guy Berger
Guy Berger, a Senior Fellow at the Burning Glass Institute and expert in labor market economics, shares valuable insights into job data collection and revisions. He discusses how immigration changes influence labor supply and reflects on the stability of current job markets amid cooling and tightening possibilities. Berger also deep dives into the significance of JOLTS data and weekly claims, highlighting their roles as indicators of future employment trends. His analysis emphasizes understanding revisions in the context of broader economic factors.
