Forward Guidance

In this episode, Craig Fuller joins the show to discuss how tariffs and Trump’s trade war are impacting shipping and supply chains. We dig into the differences between today and the COVID shock, the impact on small vs large businesses, bonded warehouses, the de minimis exemption, how this whole trade disruption is likely to unfold, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Craig: https://x.com/FreightAlley Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions. Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworksEligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:06) Tariff Shock vs COVID (07:31) Front Running & Stress Points (11:20) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ondo) (12:41) Inventory Buffers (15:36) Impact on Small vs Large Businesses (22:55) How Will All this Unfold? (33:36) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ondo) (35:36) Point of No Return? (42:58) Tracking Shipping (45:37) De Minimis Exemption (48:45) Chinese Exporters (51:51) Demand Destruction & Inflation (53:25) Learn More About Craig’s Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Neil Dutta, an economist at Renaissance Macro, predicts a looming recession in 2025, breaking down the troubling indicators of the labor market and inflation. He discusses the roles of tariffs and wages in shaping the economic landscape, alongside the impact of rising oil prices. Dutta also weighs in on the Federal Reserve's strategies ahead of their upcoming FOMC meeting and shares insights on how the long bond might react to a recession. His practical approach sheds light on the complexities of our current economic climate.

This week, strong jobs data raises eyebrows as experts predict potential declines ahead. The impact of tariffs on economic health sparks debate, revealing the cloudy effects on investment. Trump's financial proposals are dissected, showcasing the trade-offs between defense spending and deficit management. Insights into Treasury strategies highlight liquidity concerns, while the discussion on navigating bond yields underscores the complexities of today’s market. With a blend of economic analysis and market innovation, the hosts steer through the turbulent financial landscape.

Bob Elliott, from Unlimited Funds, dives into the reversal of U.S. Dollar capital flows following Trump's tariffs. He discusses the U.S. balance of payments problem and the growing skepticism among global investors. Elliott sheds light on trade policy impacts on economic growth and investment strategies, emphasizing foreign investor behaviors. He also highlights the necessity of diversifying portfolios beyond U.S. assets in this shifting economic landscape.

This week, Danny Dayan joins the show to discuss his “Doom Loop” of factors weakening the dollar and increasing inflation, why inflation expectations are unanchored, and the importance of remaining nimble in fast-moving markets. We also delve into how we’re seeing equities, rate cuts, and bonds through 2025, whether the Fed can rescue growth, why the inflation problem is worse than the growth problem and more. Enjoy!—Follow Danny: https://x.com/DannyDayan5 Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceForward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx —Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv —At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ —Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(02:40) Beware the Doom Loop(13:21) Ondo Ad(13:48) Dollar Weakness or Normalization?(16:15) Dollar & Bonds(23:13) Hard Data & The Doom Loop(25:06) Real Rates & Inflation(31:48) Ondo Ad(32:17) Inflation Expectations Are Unanchored(38:13) Trading The Current Regime(47:24) Gold Market(49:18) Having Perspective In Fast-Moving Markets(55:06) Can the Fed Rescue Growth?(59:32) Inflation is the Bigger Problem(09:30) What Will the Fed Do?—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and now chief investment officer at Maelstrom, dives into current economic dynamics. He discusses how Trump's concessions are shifting markets and the US-China trade tensions amidst high tariffs. Hayes highlights the decoupling of Bitcoin from US assets, exploring its role as a global liquidity tool. The conversation also covers monetary policy challenges, the Fed’s stance on quantitative easing, and the implications of the Supplementary Leverage Ratio on banking liquidity and crypto investments.

Quinn Thompson, a macro investor renowned for his insights on capital flows, joins the conversation to dissect the latest economic challenges. They analyze Powell's hawkish speech and its implications for interest rates. The duo debates the impact of tariffs on trade dynamics and how they ripple through the economy. Thompson highlights Bitcoin as a strategic investment after traditional trades. They also discuss the yield curve's role in predicting growth slowdowns and the broader economic landscape, keeping the conversation lively and engaging.

Explore the advantages of systematic macro trading versus discretionary strategies in today's complex markets. Discover how global economic factors like deficits and tariffs are challenging the Federal Reserve's plans. Learn about the impact of inflation and interest rates on investment decisions, while the hosts share insights on adapting to changing market conditions. The discussion also delves into the philosophical differences between trading approaches and the critical need for investors to be flexible in a volatile landscape.

Mel Mattison, an insightful author and fintech executive, shares his expertise on macroeconomics and market predictions. He argues we're nearing another inflationary bubble and discusses the growing risks of entitlement obligations. Mel predicts gold prices could skyrocket to $50,000/oz and explores the implications of yield curve distortions on markets. He also highlights the challenges of sovereign debt and strategies for navigating the complexities of current financial landscapes, including the potential impact on the FX market.

Market experts dive into the recent sell-off and its implications for investment strategies. They analyze the shift from bullish to bearish sentiment and the effects of the Federal Reserve's actions. Geopolitical tensions, especially involving Taiwan, are explored alongside their impact on global trade and the bond market. The discussion also covers cryptocurrency strategies, focusing on Bitcoin's role as a potential safe haven and portfolio management tactics in a volatile environment. Expect insights on navigating the economic landscape ahead!