Forward Guidance
Blockworks
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBWFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceForward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
Episodes
Mentioned books
63 snips
Dec 5, 2025 • 1h
AI & Central Planning Are Propping Up the Economy | Weekly Roundup
The discussion dives into the paradox of a seemingly robust economy with hidden fragility. Key topics include the implications of AI-driven growth and debt-fueled spending. The hosts analyze market concentration and its relationship with small businesses facing recession. They also touch on the metals trade and geopolitical pressures leading up to 2026. Additionally, there's a look at the potential impacts of Federal Reserve dynamics and how these intersect with current market behaviors and trends.
33 snips
Dec 3, 2025 • 54min
The Hidden Fractures Behind America’s “Resilient” Economy | Aahan Menon
Aahan Menon, a macro investor and founder of Prometheus Macro, explores the deceptive strength of the U.S. economy, driven by AI investments and consumer spending from wealth rather than wages. He discusses the disconnect between nominal and real growth, the instability in the bond market, and how traditional recession indicators are losing relevance. Aahan also shares insights into liquidity transmission and offers practical trading advice, emphasizing the need for adaptive risk management and realistic expectations for investors.
70 snips
Nov 27, 2025 • 57min
The AI Economy Is Leaving Labor Behind | Weekly Roundup
This week, the hosts explore the Fed's surprising rate-cut shifts, highlighting how market reactions are more about positioning than fundamentals. They discuss AI's role in boosting capital expenditure while masking deep economic issues and the alarming trend of AI replacing entry-level jobs. The conversation also touches on political pressures leading up to 2025 and the true cost of living being significantly underestimated. A debate on the risks of AI investments rounds out the discussion, emphasizing the implications for labor and future economic policies.
52 snips
Nov 26, 2025 • 55min
AI Is Ushering in an Entirely New Economic Paradigm | Jordi Visser
Jordi Visser, a founder and expert in exponential technology trends and AI innovation, shares insights on how these advancements are reshaping the economy. He discusses the limitations of traditional macro models, emphasizing why AI and deflation might be more pivotal than usual data metrics. Jordi explains the infinite demand for AI infrastructure and contrasts today’s tech investment strategies with the dot-com era. He also elaborates on the implications of wealth concentration, Bitcoin's role as a digital asset, and how emerging technologies could redefine economic paradigms.
41 snips
Nov 20, 2025 • 1h 2min
AI’s CapEx Frenzy Hits Wall of Fed Hawkishness | Weekly Roundup
This week, the hosts tackle NVIDIA's impressive earnings and its major impact on the AI landscape. The conversation shifts to how rising bond issuance by tech giants is reshaping risk assessments. They explore mixed signals from the Fed and the implications for market liquidity. In the crypto space, they discuss unexpected forces driving recent downturns and potential signal changes ahead. The podcast also highlights geopolitical currency dynamics and their warning signs for global markets.
63 snips
Nov 19, 2025 • 52min
Why Cross-Border Flows Matter More Than Rate Cuts | Capital Flows
Felix Jauvin, a researcher focused on macro and cross-border capital flows, discusses the intricate dynamics of today's financial landscape. He explains how credit growth and geopolitical shifts are currently shaping liquidity more than the Federal Reserve's actions. Felix emphasizes the resilient state of household balance sheets, why recession risks remain low, and emerging trends in auto-loan stress. He also delves into cross-border capital flows and their impact on U.S. assets, alongside insights into the contrasting roles of gold and Bitcoin in today's economy.
83 snips
Nov 14, 2025 • 51min
Hawkish Fed, Credit Stress & A K-Shaped America | Weekly Roundup
Markets are feeling the pinch from a pointless government shutdown and a hawkish Fed, raising concerns about rising credit stress and over-leveraged AI companies. The discussion dives into the widening inequality in a K-shaped recovery, highlighting divergent economic experiences. With tech giants dominating the market, the hosts question whether this concentration poses national security risks. The impact of a hawkish policy on fragile conditions, along with the complexities of decentralization in Bitcoin, adds further intrigue to this week's analysis.
61 snips
Nov 12, 2025 • 1h 2min
LTCM Co-Founder on Risk, Leverage & Simplicity | Victor Haghani
Victor Haghani, co-founder of Long-Term Capital Management and founder of Elm Wealth, shares invaluable insights on risk and leverage in the investing world. He draws contrasts between LTCM's era and today's highly leveraged hedge-fund environment. Victor discusses the pitfalls of return chasing and the importance of fat tails in risk management. He emphasizes the effectiveness of his Dynamic Index Investing approach, advocating for simplicity and discipline over complexity in portfolio construction. Victor's lessons underscore the significance of long-term success and strategy commitment.
79 snips
Nov 7, 2025 • 51min
America’s Two-Tier Economy Is Breaking Down | Weekly Roundup
This week, the hosts explore America's faltering two-tier economy, highlighting stagnation on Main Street amid booming tech sectors. They delve into the struggle of the Fed to manage market imbalances and discuss how younger generations turn to crypto as an escape route from traditional systems. The impact of automation on jobs and the risks of a government shutdown are examined, alongside the evolving landscape of Bitcoin and crypto markets. Finally, the balance between fiscal policy and market distortion raises questions about the future.
8 snips
Nov 5, 2025 • 1h 10min
The Next Chapter For Blockworks | Empire
The discussion kicks off with the surprising closure of Blockworks' newsroom, highlighting the shifting landscape for crypto journalism. 2025 is framed as a pivotal year for the crypto industry, signaling a new bull market. The hosts delve into MegaETH's ICO and its implications for token distribution. Securitize's public plans and Western Union's USDPT on Solana spark intrigue, while the potential acquisition of ZeroHash by Mastercard raises strategic questions. Personal investment strategies add a touch of individual perspective to the broader industry analysis.
