Forward Guidance

A federal court ruling has thrown Trump's tariff strategy into disarray, raising questions about international trade and market responses. The conversation shifts to stealthy bailouts through Treasury bills and Japan's perplexing inflation situation. AI's productivity promises burst into the mix, alongside fears of a housing and credit crunch. Not to be missed, the emergence of stablecoins as significant players in U.S. debt buying hints at changing financial dynamics. Buckle up for a whirlwind analysis of economic uncertainty!

David Cervantes, founder of Pinebrook Capital and expert in macro analysis, shares his insights on the evolving U.S. economy. He discusses the impact of fiscal stimulus and labor market changes, driven by immigration. Cervantes highlights the paradox of rising interest payments amid potential economic growth and the shifting strategies of retail vs. hedge fund investors. He delves into asset performance trends, particularly in small caps and defense, while forecasting market positioning in light of recent Fed policies. This conversation is packed with forward-thinking investment strategies!

This week, the discussion dives into the alarming U.S. fiscal pivot and escalating deficits, sparking concerns for bond markets and Bitcoin. The hosts debate Japan's role as a potential harbinger of sovereign debt risks and the feasibility of quantitative easing amidst economic strain. They analyze the housing market crisis and explore why Bitcoin and foreign equities could be the smartest long-term investments. Generational divides in financial perspectives are also highlighted, contrasting Boomers with the emerging crypto-savvy crowd.

Kevin Muir, author of the MacroTourist newsletter, dives into the complexities of fiscal dominance and Modern Monetary Theory. He discusses how higher interest rates can stimulate markets and the implications of the U.S. deficit on economic resilience and long-term risks. Muir tackles Trump's economic policies, potential capital controls, and foreign capital movements. He also shares insights into bond and equity markets, positioning for FX volatility, and a looming private credit unwind—equipping listeners with a deeper understanding of today’s economic landscape.

This week dives into the implications of the Trump-China tariff deal and the structural shifts in political markets. The discussion highlights unsustainable U.S. fiscal deficits and their potential impact on the dollar and bonds. The hosts analyze how AI-driven productivity might influence tech valuations and explore current risks in crypto and tech stocks. They also reflect on generational investment differences and the challenges of adjusting strategies amid rising inflation and shifting capital flows.

James from Citrini Research, a macro policy expert, shares insights on how Trump's economic policies shape today's investment landscape. He argues that the trade war's pause was necessary and discusses potential boosts for equities from upcoming legislation. James highlights robotics as a key investment area, noting China's lead and the implications for labor markets. He also touches on emerging technologies like AI, detailing how companies can capitalize on advancements in automation and military spending to navigate a complex economic environment.

Luke Gromen, President of Forest for the Trees, dives deep into the complexities of the U.S.-China trade dynamics. He highlights why the U.S. struggles with real interest rates and the critical role the bond market plays. Gromen uncovers the hidden costs of distancing from China and the certainty of dollar devaluation. He argues fiscal austerity efforts are destined to fail and emphasizes the significant implications of tariff changes on the economy. Expect a thought-provoking discussion on global competitiveness and financial stability!

This week, the hosts unpack the Federal Reserve's latest meeting, discussing its reactive stance amid rising inflation and unemployment. They tackle misconceptions about quantitative easing and emphasize the impact of trade negotiations on inflation. Bitcoin's resilience against traditional equities is explored, along with worries about Asian currencies. Additionally, they analyze the risks and rewards in today’s market, factoring in fiscal deficits and rising layoffs. The conversation is rich with insights on navigating the complexities of the current economic landscape.

In this episode, Craig Fuller joins the show to discuss how tariffs and Trump’s trade war are impacting shipping and supply chains. We dig into the differences between today and the COVID shock, the impact on small vs large businesses, bonded warehouses, the de minimis exemption, how this whole trade disruption is likely to unfold, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Craig: https://x.com/FreightAlley Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions. Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworksEligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:06) Tariff Shock vs COVID (07:31) Front Running & Stress Points (11:20) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ondo) (12:41) Inventory Buffers (15:36) Impact on Small vs Large Businesses (22:55) How Will All this Unfold? (33:36) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ondo) (35:36) Point of No Return? (42:58) Tracking Shipping (45:37) De Minimis Exemption (48:45) Chinese Exporters (51:51) Demand Destruction & Inflation (53:25) Learn More About Craig’s Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Neil Dutta, an economist at Renaissance Macro, predicts a looming recession in 2025, breaking down the troubling indicators of the labor market and inflation. He discusses the roles of tariffs and wages in shaping the economic landscape, alongside the impact of rising oil prices. Dutta also weighs in on the Federal Reserve's strategies ahead of their upcoming FOMC meeting and shares insights on how the long bond might react to a recession. His practical approach sheds light on the complexities of our current economic climate.