Forward Guidance
Blockworks
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBWFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceForward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
Episodes
Mentioned books
73 snips
Aug 21, 2025 • 53min
Will Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Break Markets? | Weekly Roundup
The discussion kicks off with anticipation for Powell's Jackson Hole speech, weighing its potential hawkish or dovish leanings on markets. There's an insightful dive into recent FOMC minutes and the impact of inflation expectations. The hosts tackle the curious decline in foreign participation in Treasury auctions and its implications for investors. They also dissect Trump’s plans regarding the Fed and examine the tug-of-war between recession risks and rising inflation, all while blending in some lighthearted banter.
82 snips
Aug 20, 2025 • 49min
Crypto Credit Markets Will Rewrite Risk Management | David Grider
David Grider, a Partner at Finality Capital Partners and a seasoned expert in both traditional finance and crypto investment, discusses his approach to managing a digital asset hedge fund. He highlights the rise of digital asset treasury companies and the transformative impact of new credit instruments on risk management. Grider also delves into how macro liquidity signals inform his strategies and the evolving dynamics of crypto derivatives that are reshaping institutional adoption in the crypto space.
131 snips
Aug 15, 2025 • 1h 8min
Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup
Brent Johnson, founder and CEO of Santiago Capital, shares insights on macroeconomics and his Dollar Milkshake Theory. He discusses the latest inflation data and warns of a possible 10–15% market correction, driven by upcoming rate cuts and political maneuvering. The conversation also highlights AI's dual impact on future productivity and inflation, along with the rising dynamics in gold mining stocks. Johnson urges investors to remain cautious and prepared for volatility amid changing economic tides.
29 snips
Aug 13, 2025 • 57min
Should We Be Worried About Jobs Report Revisions? | Guy Berger
Guy Berger, a Senior Fellow at the Burning Glass Institute and expert in labor market economics, shares valuable insights into job data collection and revisions. He discusses how immigration changes influence labor supply and reflects on the stability of current job markets amid cooling and tightening possibilities. Berger also deep dives into the significance of JOLTS data and weekly claims, highlighting their roles as indicators of future employment trends. His analysis emphasizes understanding revisions in the context of broader economic factors.
84 snips
Aug 8, 2025 • 57min
The Financial Repression Endgame | Weekly Roundup
This discussion dives into the volatility of September's rate cut odds and Trump’s nomination of Stephen Miran to the Fed. It reveals the chaos in commercial real estate and public pensions while portraying the economic landscape as a slow-moving trainwreck. Listeners can expect insights on varying tariff scenarios, the impact of fiscal policies, and how wealth distribution shapes today's economy. The hosts also tackle the duality of gold and Bitcoin in uncertain markets and analyze the intricacies of semiconductor investments.
62 snips
Aug 6, 2025 • 1h 11min
Markets Haven’t Priced In The End of Fiscal Tailwinds | Andy Constan
Andy Constan, Founder & CIO of Damped Spring Advisors, offers a compelling analysis of macroeconomic trends impacting today's markets. He emphasizes a cautious Federal Reserve at a critical juncture, alongside fiscal policies that might induce contraction as tariffs come into play. Contradicting the prevailing 'run it hot' market narratives, Constan presents data indicating a slowdown is already underway. His insights shed light on the complex interplay of government financing strategies and economic indicators that could shape the financial landscape.
83 snips
Aug 1, 2025 • 60min
Will Market Euphoria Cool Off In August? | Weekly Round-Up
The podcast dives into the recent euphoria in the markets, questioning if it's sustainable. It highlights disappointing labor market data and the implications of potential stagflation. The hosts analyze the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and inflation on growth, particularly for low-income consumers. They discuss navigating volatility, shifts in investment strategies, and the influence of currency devaluation on assets like gold and Bitcoin. The conversation wraps up with insights on generational shifts in investment attitudes.
128 snips
Jul 30, 2025 • 51min
Breaking Down The FOMC Meeting with Joseph Wang, Brent Donnelly & Bob Elliot
Joseph Wang, known as Fed Guy, dissects Federal Reserve policies; Brent Donnelly shares insights on market dynamics, while Bob Elliott discusses investment strategies. They analyze the recent FOMC meeting's hawkish stance and its contrast with market expectations. Key topics include the divergence of tech versus traditional manufacturing profits, the complexities of the U.S. dollar, and the implications of potential rate cuts. The trio also explores tactical trading strategies and the evolving landscapes of bonds, gold, and cryptocurrencies amid economic uncertainty.
22 snips
Jul 30, 2025 • 56min
The Fed Is Fueling A New Inflation Wave | Danny Dayan
In this discussion, Danny Dayan, a global macro hedge fund expert, explores how the Fed's approach may be fueling a new wave of inflation. He reveals the breakdown of traditional rate transmission mechanisms and the impact of immigration and tariffs on the labor market. Dayan warns of a structurally weaker dollar and a potential 'doom loop' dynamic. He shares his portfolio strategies while highlighting the challenges of interpreting contemporary macroeconomic data and the need for the Fed to adapt to changing financial conditions.
27 snips
Jul 26, 2025 • 52min
Welcome to Peak Monetary Policy Theater | Weekly Roundup
This week, the hosts delve into the drama surrounding the Federal Reserve's independence, sparked by a visit from Trump. They explore the effects of this politicization on future monetary policy. The conversation shifts to the surprising divergence in inflation expectations and commodity prices. With real yield correlations breaking down, they analyze the evolving role of the dollar. Humor adds a light touch as they navigate the complexities of market dynamics, highlighting challenges in housing affordability and the intricacies of debt management.
