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Forward Guidance

Latest episodes

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Feb 12, 2025 • 52min

The Credit Cycle Is Just Getting Started | Andreas Steno Larsen

In this episode, Andreas Steno Larsen joins the show to discuss the outlook for liquidity, the uptick in the manufacturing and credit cycle, and expectations around inflation. We also delve into Powell’s QE comments, idiosyncratic drivers of gold, and much more. Enjoy!Follow Andreas Steno Larsen: https://x.com/AndreasStenoFollow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceForward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp—Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125—Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york__SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork—Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:18) Current Macro Backdrop and Market Sentiment(01:48) Liquidity Backdrop and Federal Reserve Policies(04:33) Private Sector Liquidity and Credit Creation(10:21) Treasury General Account and Debt Ceiling(17:30) Skale Ad(17:54) Future Liquidity Measures and Market Implications(21:06) Private Credit and Economic Cycle(26:55) Meta's Client Base and Market Power(27:44) Russell Index and Wage Growth Insights(29:42) Inflation and CPI Analysis(33:17) Skale Ad(33:46) Global Tariff Impacts and Dollar Outlook(36:26) European Market Performance(42:05) Gold Market Dynamics(48:22) Bond Yields and Trueflation Measure(51:19) Learn More About Andreas and his Work__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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23 snips
Feb 7, 2025 • 51min

Can Trump, Bessent, & DOGE Drive Long Bond Yields Lower? | Weekly Roundup

The discussion kicks off with speculation about how political figures like Trump might affect market dynamics. Insights are shared on the implications of recent tariffs and their effects on manufacturing trends. The cryptocurrency landscape takes center stage, highlighting volatility and regulatory influences. There's a deep dive into liquidity dynamics and how bond market demand interacts with fiscal policies. Finally, the podcast contrasts the manufacturing and construction sectors, contemplating their roles in an evolving economy.
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22 snips
Feb 5, 2025 • 49min

The U.S. Job Market Is On The Brink | Danielle DiMartino Booth

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and expert on the US economy, shares her insights on the precarious state of the U.S. job market. She discusses the impact of tariffs on employment and the gig economy, navigating the complexities of inflation and labor dynamics. DiMartino Booth addresses the risks involved with government stimulus and its influence on job stability. She also explores the Federal Reserve's evolving policies, the interconnectedness of economic indicators, and the political pressures affecting monetary decisions.
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30 snips
Feb 4, 2025 • 60min

Trading Crypto's Weekend Meltdown | 1000x

This week, the discussion dives into crypto's drastic liquidation event, analyzing why altcoins are struggling while Bitcoin stands tall. They introduce a unique strategy called 'inverse alt season' focused on short-selling amidst a bear market. Geopolitical tensions and trade wars also shape the conversation, affecting the future of cryptocurrencies as alternatives to fiat. Insights into navigating market dynamics, liquidity, and the evolving role of decentralized currencies add depth to this intriguing exploration of the crypto landscape.
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Jan 31, 2025 • 56min

Positioning For Trump's Policy Flip Flops | Weekly Roundup

Andrew Stein, a Partner at Lecker and head of research with a focus on unique investments, shares fascinating insights on market dynamics. They discuss the Fed's inflation strategy and its ripple effects on the economy. The conversation dives into Trump's fluctuating economic policies and their impact on market sentiment. Stein offers a bullish perspective on Lyft's investment potential, emphasizing growth strategies and market positioning. Additionally, they explore Bitcoin's volatility and the importance of patience in navigating the shifting landscape.
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29 snips
Jan 29, 2025 • 54min

What DeepSeek Means For Markets & The The Future Of AI | Alex Campbell

Alex Campbell, former head of commodities at Bridgewater and founder of Rose AI, dives into the market implications of China's DeepSeek AI model. He discusses the geopolitical dynamics of AI, especially between the U.S. and China, and the crucial role Taiwan plays in the chip supply chain. Campbell also tackles the challenges businesses face when integrating AI and the tension between productivity gains and employment loss. He explores the debate between open-source and proprietary AI models, highlighting the socioeconomic shifts they create.
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18 snips
Jan 24, 2025 • 49min

Trump Vs The Fed: The Battle Over Rates, Growth, & Inflation | Weekly Roundup

This week features Capital Flows, a financial markets expert known for his keen insights into macroeconomic trends. The discussion revolves around Trump's executive orders and their potential impact on inflation and market reactions. They explore the intricacies of the yield curve and warning signs for equities, while also examining recent trends in inflation and interest rates. The conversation emphasizes the significance of careful market positioning amid shifting economic indicators and the implications of changes in the Federal Open Market Committee's dynamics.
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40 snips
Jan 22, 2025 • 58min

Why FX Volatility Will Dominate Markets In 2025 | Brent Donnelly

Brent Donnelly, a seasoned expert in foreign exchange markets, shares his insights on FX volatility that could dominate in 2025. He discusses how tariffs from Mexico and Canada might influence the currency landscape and the interplay between inflation and Federal Reserve policies. Donnelly also breaks down his framework for currency trading, highlighting the significance of interest rate differentials. The conversation includes a deep dive into the dynamics of carry trades, particularly the yen carry trade, and the broader implications for global markets.
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23 snips
Jan 17, 2025 • 47min

CPI, Yields, & The Growth Debate | Weekly Roundup

This week, the discussion dives into the latest CPI data and its influence on market trends. The hosts analyze economic indicators, highlighting contrasting inflation patterns between goods and services. They explore the evolving credit cycle and the potential impact of a Bank of Japan rate hike. The conversation also touches on shifts in market sentiment, with a focus on the rotation from large-cap to equal-weight indices and implications for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. A lively debate on trading strategies for Inauguration Day adds an intriguing twist!
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38 snips
Jan 15, 2025 • 59min

What A Growth Scare Means For The Fed & Markets | Warren Pies

Warren Pies, Founder of 314 Research, provides his insights on macro investing and monetary policy. He discusses his outlook for 2025 and the current state of the housing market, emphasizing inflation fears as overblown. The conversation shifts to equity market valuations, critiquing S&P 500 assessments amidst rising bond yields. Pies also explores the Fed's decisions on interest rates and the delicate balance between unemployment and inflation. His thoughts reveal a complex landscape for both growth and value stocks.

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