Forward Guidance AI’s CapEx Frenzy Hits Wall of Fed Hawkishness | Weekly Roundup
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Nov 20, 2025 This week, the hosts tackle NVIDIA's impressive earnings and its major impact on the AI landscape. The conversation shifts to how rising bond issuance by tech giants is reshaping risk assessments. They explore mixed signals from the Fed and the implications for market liquidity. In the crypto space, they discuss unexpected forces driving recent downturns and potential signal changes ahead. The podcast also highlights geopolitical currency dynamics and their warning signs for global markets.
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AI CapEx Is Now A Credit Story
- NVIDIA earnings keep the AI capex cycle alive and market sentiment tied to its guidance.
- Credit markets, not equity buyers, will likely become the marginal risk-drivers for AI capex going forward.
Monitor Credit Crowding From Mega-Caps
- Watch small-business credit access as big tech bonds crowd out Main Street borrowers.
- Expect financing to centralize toward mega-caps, reducing credit availability for smaller firms.
Real Rates Are Draining Liquidity
- Rising real rates are sucking liquidity and pressuring risky assets across growth and crypto.
- Forward inflation is rolling over even as nominal yields rise, creating a liquidity squeeze.