Forward Guidance Should We Be Worried About Jobs Report Revisions? | Guy Berger
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Aug 13, 2025 Guy Berger, a Senior Fellow at the Burning Glass Institute and expert in labor market economics, shares valuable insights into job data collection and revisions. He discusses how immigration changes influence labor supply and reflects on the stability of current job markets amid cooling and tightening possibilities. Berger also deep dives into the significance of JOLTS data and weekly claims, highlighting their roles as indicators of future employment trends. His analysis emphasizes understanding revisions in the context of broader economic factors.
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Two Surveys Drive The Jobs Report
- The jobs report combines a household survey (CPS) and an establishment survey that produce different measures like unemployment and payrolls.
- Establishment payrolls drive nonfarm payrolls and are subject to monthly and annual revisions due to responses and modeling.
Treat Early Releases As Blurry Signals
- Expect early releases to be a noisy but valuable blurry signal; waiting months would reduce timeliness without preventing reliance on other imperfect sources.
- Use other high-frequency private indicators (ADP, LinkedIn, Indeed) to supplement the initial BLS read.
Why Revisions Keep Happening
- Revisions come from late respondent returns and BLS recalculation of seasonal factors and business birth-death adjustments.
- Low response rates and higher business churn since the pandemic have increased the modeled portion and revision magnitude.