Forward Guidance Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup
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Aug 15, 2025 
Brent Johnson, founder and CEO of Santiago Capital, shares insights on macroeconomics and his Dollar Milkshake Theory. He discusses the latest inflation data and warns of a possible 10–15% market correction, driven by upcoming rate cuts and political maneuvering. The conversation also highlights AI's dual impact on future productivity and inflation, along with the rising dynamics in gold mining stocks. Johnson urges investors to remain cautious and prepared for volatility amid changing economic tides.
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How Brent And Tyler First Met
- Brent met Tyler in San Francisco after a cold outreach and discovered they lived across the street.
- That chance meeting turned into a long friendship and repeated podcast appearances.
Elevated Inflation Unless Markets Crash
- Brent expects inflation and rates to remain elevated unless a crash forces them down.
- He sees markets higher over years but not in a straight, low-volatility line.
Political Narrative Shields Trump From Fed Outcomes
- Trump has set up Powell as a political scapegoat regardless of outcome.
- That narrative protects Trump politically whether the Fed eases or resists cuts.
