The Next Big Trade Is Hiding In Plain Sight | Citrini

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May 16, 2025

James from Citrini Research, a macro policy expert, shares insights on how Trump's economic policies shape today's investment landscape. He argues that the trade war's pause was necessary and discusses potential boosts for equities from upcoming legislation. James highlights robotics as a key investment area, noting China's lead and the implications for labor markets. He also touches on emerging technologies like AI, detailing how companies can capitalize on advancements in automation and military spending to navigate a complex economic environment.

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INSIGHT

Trump-Era Constraints Limit Risk

Trump's policies face hard constraints like debt refinancing and the need for Congressional support.
Market worries about recession were overblown because these constraints limit policy extremity.

INSIGHT

Buy Secular Themes at Cyclical Prices

AI investment shifted from infrastructure to actual revenue impact.
The ideal strategy is buying secular stories at cyclical prices for maximum returns.

INSIGHT

Robotics: Secular Growth Amid Cyclicality

Robotics is a growing secular opportunity despite a weak automotive cycle.
The US lags in robotics, while China leads especially on cost-effective humanoid robots.

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In this episode, James of Citrini Research returns to unpack his framework for understanding Trump-era macro policy, highlighting why the trade war pause was inevitable, the return of the three-legged stool, and how the "big beautiful bill" could fuel equities. He also outlines why robotics might be the next great secular investment, breaks down China’s robotics lead, and more. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:54) Trump, Tariffs & Macro Overview

(10:48) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger, Ondo)

(12:54) Taxes, Deregulation & Fiscal

(18:45) Deficit, Defense & DOGE

(22:57) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger, Ondo)

(25:43) AI & Robotics

(35:28) Macro Impact of AI & Robotics

(39:08) Investing in Robotics

(44:52) China vs USA

(48:44) Subsidizing to Build Reliance

(51:53) Citrini's Core Thesis

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.