Forward Guidance

Jim Bianco, Mark Yusko, & Jurrien Timmer discuss whether macro will be a headwind or tailwind for crypto, impact of real interest rates, future of banking system, possibility of a recession in 2024, and final verdict on macro's influence on crypto.

Mark Yusko, founder of Morgan Creek Capital, discusses macro factors affecting the crypto market. He explores venture capital returns, valuing frameworks, and his stance as a China bull. They also delve into human behavior in investing, risks, and the impact of exponential growth on network value. The podcast touches on blockchain networks, privacy protection units, and China's strategy in cyber warfare.

Jim Bianco, economist and founder of Bianco Research, discusses various topics on the podcast including the impact of oil prices on interest rates, the skepticism towards Fed's rate cuts, the lasting impact of remote work on the economy, unique factors of the current economic situation, the importance of crypto being attached to real world assets, and the impact of digital finance and mobile money systems.

Andrew Beer, managing member of DBI, discusses the need for fee reduction in hedge funds. He explores trend following strategies, the rise of the 'pod model' in multi-manager hedge funds, and the flaws in picking hedge fund managers. Beer also addresses the tech rally, the value factor, and China's appeal to the hedge fund community.

Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Research, discusses the U.S. business cycle and leading indicators suggesting an upcoming recession. Topics covered include housing and auto growth, consumer credit trends, unemployment rates, and the mechanics of higher interest rates. The podcast also explores the bull market in stocks, the possibility of the U.S. economy already being in a recession, and predictions on Fed interest rate hikes and the likelihood of a recession by 2025.

Jeremy Schwartz, Chief Investment Officer of WisdomTree, and Professor Jeremy Seigel, renowned finance professor at Wharton, talk about the labor market, stock market, interest rate sensitivity of the U.S. economy, and the banking system. They explore the relationship between interest rates and the unemployment rate, the impact of rising interest rates on banks and the market, and the worrisome trend of banks modifying and extending loans.

Milton Berg, technical analysis legend and stock market expert, revisits the program to urge caution in the stock market. He discusses eight reasons why the bull market will end soon and highlights the weakness of banks. Berg also analyzes market gaps, put-call ratios, and the impact of Federal Reserve actions on the money supply. Additionally, he explores the influence of solar and lunar cycles on the stock market and discusses the value of his Twitter presence and upcoming book.

Aahan Menon, Founder of Prometheus Research, discusses his macro outlook, the wave of U.S. Treasury issuance, and potential headwinds for assets. Topics include measuring liquidity, the impact of Treasury issuance on the bond market, and the state of credit. They also talk about shorting assets and the democratization of finance by Prometheus Macro.

John Toohig, Thomas LaSalvia, and Victor Calanog discuss the challenges and opportunities in commercial real estate (CRE) due to the recent interest rate shock. They analyze the decline in CRE prices, the uncertainty in the office sector, low payoff rate in CMBS universe, importance of loan-to-value ratios and cash flow, and hedging interest rate risk. They also discuss the state of the multi-family market and rising insurance costs, along with uncertainties and struggles in investing and banking.

David Rosenberg, Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates, discusses the recession within the next six months, prior Fed tightening cycles, the incoming credit crunch, the impact of higher interest rates, deficit spending, and the three stages of every bear market.