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Forward Guidance
Joseph Wang: Bonds Will Be Crushed By Stocks As Fiscal Deficits Reignite Inflation
Jan 8, 2024
01:04:17
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Former Fed trader Joseph Wang discusses his outlook for 2024, including his stock market "crack up boom" thesis and the rise of fiscal dominance. They also dive into the Fed's QT program, the reverse repo outlook, and the impact of broader financial plumbing on markets.
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Quick takeaways
- The potential resurgence of inflation in 2024 will lead to stocks outperforming bonds.
- Deficit spending acts as helicopter money, fueling the stock market and negatively impacting the bond market.
Deep dives
Inflation and Growth in 2024
The discussion focuses on the potential resurgence of inflation in 2024 after a period of transitory disinflation. The improvement in supply chain disruptions and labor force participation has contributed to a decline in inflation. However, the speaker predicts that these improvements are coming to an end, and the strong demand, fueled by factors such as wage growth, increased household net worth, and deficit spending, will lead to a resurgence of inflation. The speaker believes that stocks will outperform bonds in this scenario.
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Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode