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Forward Guidance
Danielle DiMartino Booth & George Goncalves on The 2024 Fed Pivot: Recession or Soft Landing?
Jan 11, 2024
01:02:38
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Danielle DiMartino Booth and George Goncalves discuss the 2024 Fed pivot, analyzing the potential for a recession or soft landing. They delve into topics such as the decrease in inflation, increase in real income growth, and the challenges faced by the Fed in managing the economy. They also explore revisions to non-farm payrolls data, the Digital Asset Summit London conference, credit performance, and the Federal Reserve's holdings and interest rate predictions.
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Quick takeaways
- 2024 will mark the end of direct fiscal stimulus, leading to decreased income and spending expectations
- Rate cuts are necessary to sustain economic growth and support the banking system, private enterprise, and consumers
Deep dives
Outlook for 2024 and the Distinguishing Feature
The podcast episode discusses the outlook for 2024 and highlights the potential distinguishing feature of the year. The guest predicts that 2024 will be the year that direct fiscal stimulus finally ends, marking a shift in approach for US households. This change is expected to manifest in decreased income and spending expectations, falling inflation expectations, and wage disinflation. The guest suggests that this shift could impact US GDP, particularly the consumption-driven portion. The episode emphasizes the significance of this change and its potential long-term effects.
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Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode