George Goncalves

Joseph Wang, a former senior trader at the New York Fed and author of "Central Banking 101," teams up with George Goncalves, Head of US Macro Strategy at MUFG Securities. They delve into the Federal Reserve's strategy for 2025, examining the impact of rising interest rates and political shifts. The duo discusses the challenges of small businesses amidst high rates, the implications of trade tariffs, and potential rate cuts. They explore how these factors could influence market sentiment, the economy, and future Federal Reserve policies.

Join Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO at QI Research, and George Goncalves, U.S. Macro Strategy Head at MUFG, as they dissect the Federal Reserve's refusal to adjust interest rates amid economic struggles. They reveal that real unemployment levels are significantly higher than reported and discuss the rising number of Americans juggling multiple jobs. Danielle predicts the U.S. is already in a recession, while George addresses the disparities in economic experiences across different demographics. Their insights shed light on the troubling state of corporate bankruptcies and consumer consumption trends.

George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG, dives into the complexities shaping the economy as we approach 2025. He discusses the critical decision framework for the upcoming Trump administration: endure short-term pain for long-term stability or continue aggressive spending. Goncalves highlights the pivotal moment when the 10-year yield exceeds 4.75%, warning of potential market upheaval. Additionally, he analyzes the Fed's need to cut rates to mitigate recession risks and examines the disparities in economic recovery across different sectors.

Danielle DiMartino Booth and George Goncalves discuss the 2024 Fed pivot, analyzing the potential for a recession or soft landing. They delve into topics such as the decrease in inflation, increase in real income growth, and the challenges faced by the Fed in managing the economy. They also explore revisions to non-farm payrolls data, the Digital Asset Summit London conference, credit performance, and the Federal Reserve's holdings and interest rate predictions.

George Goncalves, a bond strategist and expert, shares his insights on the U.S. economy and the bond market. He dives into the intricate dynamics of bond rates and Federal Reserve actions, drawing parallels to the 2008 financial crisis. The discussion illuminates the Fed's balance sheet, liquidity trends, and the pressing need for interest rate cuts to support small and mid-sized businesses. Goncalves also explores the implications of recent economic indicators and emphasizes the importance of understanding risk in banking strategies.