Maggie Lake Talking Markets Episode 107: Are Bonds Warning of Trouble? With George Goncalves.
Nov 20, 2025
Join George Goncalves, Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at MUFG, as he dives into the current bond market landscape amid looming Nvidia earnings. He discusses potential risks with Fed rate cuts and their impact on the equity market, highlighting how market sentiment is shifting. Explore the effects of inflation on Fed policy, the implications of demographic shifts, and the vital role of Treasuries as a safe haven. Goncalves also warns of complacency reminiscent of past market peaks and recommends cautious strategies for investors.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Fed Optionality Replaces Certainty
- Markets priced out many Fed cuts and now less than 50-50 for a December cut, reducing certainty for investors.
- George Goncalves argues the Fed should cut because deteriorating labor-market signals and layoffs warrant easing.
Jobs Market Drives Everything
- The labor market remains the central driver of consumer spending and the economy's health.
- George Goncalves says jobs trump other data for determining whether policy should ease.
Fed Debates Neutral Rate And Timing
- The Fed struggles with uncertainty over the neutral rate and fears missing inflation again.
- Goncalves thinks a 3% policy rate is nearer the 'sweet spot' and delay risks problems.
