The Julia La Roche Show #267 Danielle DiMartino Booth & George Goncalves: Fed Is 'Behind the Curve' as We're Already in Recession and There's More Than One Economy in America
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Jun 19, 2025 
Join Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO at QI Research, and George Goncalves, U.S. Macro Strategy Head at MUFG, as they dissect the Federal Reserve's refusal to adjust interest rates amid economic struggles. They reveal that real unemployment levels are significantly higher than reported and discuss the rising number of Americans juggling multiple jobs. Danielle predicts the U.S. is already in a recession, while George addresses the disparities in economic experiences across different demographics. Their insights shed light on the troubling state of corporate bankruptcies and consumer consumption trends.
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Record Multiple Job Holders
- 5.3% of Americans are working multiple jobs, a record high and sign of economic struggle.
- Monetary policy remains too tight for working people and small businesses, per Danielle DiMartino Booth.
Real Unemployment Understated
- The official unemployment rate understates real joblessness because labor force participation has contracted sharply.
- The real unemployment rate is around 4.5-4.6%, accounting for those who gave up searching for work.
The Cost of Delayed Rate Cuts
- The Fed's delay in cutting rates risks making future easing more intense and chaotic.
- Maintaining rate cut optionality is crucial to avoid harsher corrections.
