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Danielle DiMartino Booth & George Goncalves on The 2024 Fed Pivot: Recession or Soft Landing?
Forward Guidance
Revisions to Non-Farm Payrolls Data and the Birth-Death Adjustment
This chapter explores the negative revisions to non-farm payrolls data in 2023, discussing the average monthly revision and the impact of the birth-death adjustment. It also highlights the reflection of the bankruptcy cycle in the Bureau of Labor Statistics birth-death model.
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