Forward Guidance
Blockworks
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBWFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceForward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
Episodes
Mentioned books
Nov 16, 2023 • 1h 11min
Jason Shapiro: It’s Too Early To Get Long Bonds
Jason Shapiro, founder of Crowded Market Report, discusses his philosophy for trading markets. He believes stocks will outperform bonds based on positioning and sentiment. Topics include stock/bond correlation, gold and oil, narratives, investing vs. trading, banks and commercial real estate, correlations, Jason's long position in the Swiss Franc, and the role of stop losses.
4 snips
Nov 13, 2023 • 1h 52min
George Robertson: The Fed Has No Control, There Will Be No Recession, and Fiscal Supremacy Will Drive Stocks To “Ponzi Stage”
George Robertson, an economic analyst, argues that the fiscal stimulus will lead to a continuous economic boom. He challenges common conceptions on the risk-free yield curve and the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The podcast covers topics such as the potential for a recession, the relationship between interest rates and new home constructions, the behavior of euro dollars, and the disconnection between S&P 500 earnings and reality.
Nov 10, 2023 • 1h 23min
The Massive Bond Short | “Recession Denier” Jonny Matthews (ex-Brevan Howard) On The Duration Bubble, Correlation Trades, and Variance Swaps
Jonny Matthews, ex-Brevan Howard portfolio manager, shares insights on shorting Treasury bonds, correlation trades, and variance swaps. He discusses the challenges of currency trading, the severe slowdown in Europe, and his view on the duration bubble and recession in the U.S.
Nov 9, 2023 • 1h 3min
Interest Rate Declines Will Bring Fated "Soft Landing," Says Earnings Maestro Sam Burns
In this podcast, Sam Burns, Founder of Mill Street Research, shares his insights on the current state of equities, including the housing market, banks, commercial real estate, healthcare, commodity sectors, and Chinese stocks. He also discusses equity momentum, disinflation, global manufacturing, trade downturn, fiscal tailwinds in the U.S., and the potential for a soft landing with declining interest rates.
Nov 6, 2023 • 55min
The Bond Market Sell-Off Was Duration, Not Credit Risk | Ben Santonelli
Ben Santonelli, Portfolio Manager at Polen Capital, discusses the state of the high yield bond market and where he finds the best opportunities as debt investors can generate equity type returns. Topics include default rates, investing in high quality businesses, loan demand, liquidity, credit spreads, credit performance during a recession, margin compression, and potential refinancing issues.
Nov 3, 2023 • 49min
Althea Spinozzi on Stagflation, Term Premia, and Ultra Long-Duration Bonds
Discussion on bear market in long-duration treasuries, foreign demand for US Treasuries and complications of hedging, hedging costs and yield curves, the state of US and European economies, and building a barbell portfolio with short and long maturities.
Nov 1, 2023 • 1h 8min
Michael Kao on November Fed Meeting, Treasury Refunding, and Bond Market Bear Steepening (Co-Hosted By Michael Ippolito & Jack Farley)
Former hedge fund manager and private investor, Michael Kao, joins the hosts to discuss topics such as the Treasury refunding announcement, bear steepening in the bond market, Federal Reserve's stance on rate hikes, analysis of closed-end funds, analyzing yield spreads in the high-yield market, and predictions for CPI and real rates.
45 snips
Oct 30, 2023 • 1h 7min
“We’re In Uncharted Territory” | Warren Pies on Treasury Issuance, Housing Market, Oil, And Recession Risk
Warren Pies from 3Fourteen Research shares his views on bond supply, housing market, oil, and recession risk. He discusses the mortgage buydowns and their impact on homebuilders, predicts a recession in Q2 2024, talks about the relationship between interest rates, oil prices, and economic activity, and explores US government deficits and uncertainty.
Oct 29, 2023 • 50min
Does Historic Cheapness Of Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Indicate Funding Stress? Dave Goodson, Professor Jeremy Siegel, Jeremy Schwartz, and Jack Farley
Jeremy Siegel, Dave Goodson, Jeremy Schwartz, and Jack Farley discuss macro view on bonds, stocks, and economy, as well as analysis of securitized products including agency MBS, non-agency MBS, commercial MBS, and CLOs. They cover topics like impact of higher rates, tech company performance, attractiveness of bonds vs stocks, risks and opportunities in non-agency and MBS market, pricing of CLOs, risks in the CMBS market, and asset-backed securities market analysis.
Oct 27, 2023 • 53min
Sam Bankman-Fried Testifies At Last | Casey Wagner & Jack Farley On The Trial Of The Century
Entrepreneur and cryptocurrency exchange founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, testifies in a trial, rebutting allegations of financial crimes. Topics discussed include evidence destruction, defense strategy, misuse of funds on FTX, Sam's testimony, document retention policy, potential sentencing, and challenges of a jury in the trial.
