Forward Guidance

Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro at StoneX, discusses the hidden forms of government stimulus and why they will be less of a factor in 2024, leading to a slowing US economy. He reaffirms his long-term inflationary view and explains why he is bearish on US stocks and prefers international stocks. Other topics include the shift from monetary policy to fiscal policy dominance, the impact of higher interest rates and quantitative tightening, and the complexity of inflation.

Mike Singleton, an expert in business cycles and economic downturns, discusses various topics including the forthcoming recession, the best time to buy bonds, and the potential causes of an imminent economic downturn. The conversation also explores the correlation between credit spreads and the bond market, the composite PMI and its relationship with manufacturing and services, and the potential impacts of different economic policies on growth.

Mark Neuman, Founder & CIO of Constrained Capital, discusses the origins of ESG, measuring ESG investing, underowned stocks within indices, Silicon Valley Bank, incentives and outcomes, ExxonMobil, Tesla, market stress, correlations, portfolio emergencies, the trend of ESG investing, Hero- a vertically integrated farming venture, and exploring the potential and pushback of the ESG movement.

Marshall Stocker, co-Head of Emerging Markets at Morgan Stanley, discusses the importance of country selection in generating excess returns, highlights investment opportunities in Greece, examines the risks in South Africa and India, debates the possibility of a US debt downgrade, and shares insights on China's equity market and potential economic stimulus.

Former FDIC Chair Bill Isaac discusses his handling of bank failures in the 1970s and 1980s, the impact of high interest rates on the banking system, and the fiscal imprudence of the U.S. Congress. He argues that inflation, rather than debt, is the true problem and debates the need for zero interest rates after the 2008 financial crisis. Isaac also explores the challenges banks face with rising interest rates and emphasizes the importance of prudence and moderation in the banking system.

Michael Ericson and Dan Siciliano discuss the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs), their role in the banking system, and the declining advances from FHLBs to US banks. They talk about the FHLB's mission, capitalization, implicit government guarantee, and their support for affordable housing. They also discuss liquidity pressures in the banking system and how FHLBs manage interest rate risk.

Ivy Zelman, founder and CEO of Zelman & Associates, shares her outlook on the U.S. housing market. Topics discussed include the resilience of the housing market, comparing the 2020 housing boom to the early 2000s boom, commercial real estate, housing's impact on banking, forecasts for single-family housing, supply of housing, outlook on homebuilding industry, negative outlook on home improvement industry, market for mortgage-backed securities, and the Fed's support with free money.

Danielle DiMartino Booth CEO & Chief Strategist, QI Research joins Forward Guidance for a special episode from Camp Kotok.We discuss the past 3 years in both the economy and markets, Fitch's recent AAA downgrade on U.S debt & the lingering stress in commercial real estate. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!--Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance--Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Danielle on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBoothFollow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADVFollow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/InterdependenceFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(00:51) Fitch's AAA Debt Downgrade(07:00) S&P's Debt Downgrade vs Fitch's Debt Downgrade(11:41) We Took MMT On A Test Drive & It Crashed Into The Wall(15:06) The Path Ahead For U.S Debt Issuance(19:58) Commercial Real Estate(23:19) Where Are We In The Cycle?(26:25) Oppenheimer Or Barbie?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Dennis Lockhart, Former President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, joins Forward Guidance for a special interview to discuss one of the most important topics of the past 3 years... inflation.Lockhart outlines how the Fed decided on their 2% inflation target, the impact of higher interest rates in the Fed's current inflation fight & why the Fed has now shifted to their quantitative tightening policy stance after years of quantitative easing. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADVFollow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/InterdependenceFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(00:23) Inflation(05:08) The Impact Of Higher Interest Rates(08:00) The Fed Cannot Influence Fiscal Policy(10:58) How The Fed Reached Their 2% Target(16:55) Could Secular Inflation Forces Change The Fed's 2% Target?(21:11) The Shift From Quantitative Easing To Quantitative Tightening--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

David Kotok, chief investment officer and co-founder of Cumberland Advisors, welcomes Jack Farley to “Camp Kotok” with an interview. Kotok explains the origins of “Camp Kotok” and makes the case that, contrary to popular understanding, Fitch’s recent downgrading of U.S. debt is, in fact, a big deal. Filmed on August 5, 2023.David Kotok's analysis on the debt ceiling: https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/cost-debt-ceiling-crisisAbout Camp Kotok: https://www.cumber.com/about/camp-kotokFollow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGICFollow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADVFollow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/InterdependenceFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadigFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo___Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(00:10) The History Of Camp Kotok(11:11) Fitch's Downgrade Of U.S. Treasury Debt(20:56) 2023 Debt Ceiling Drama Imposed Real Cost On Borrowing Rates(28:58) Alternatives To The Global Dollar System(31:29) Anecdote From Municipal Bond Market(35:46) Will Interests Rates Go Even Higher?(38:32) The Federal Reserve's Assistance To The U.S. Banking Sector In 2023