Forward Guidance
Blockworks
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBWFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceForward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
Episodes
Mentioned books
7 snips
Oct 26, 2023 • 1h 13min
Duration Remains Unattractive, Says Veteran High Yield Bond Investor
Craig Manchuck, a veteran high yield bond investor, joins the podcast to discuss the end of the zero interest rate era. They explore the bond market sell-off, opportunities in the bond market, and the rise of private credit. They also talk about the impact of CLOs and passive investing on bonds, the pain from higher interest rates, and the decline of the heyday of private equity.
11 snips
Oct 23, 2023 • 1h 12min
A Deep Dive On China's Financial System | Aidan Garrib
Aidan Garrib, Global Macro Strategy & Research at PGM Global, takes a deep dive into the Chinese economy, discussing shadow debt, the government's crackdown on credit, and his outlook for Chinese equities. The podcast also covers the recent bond market sell-off in the U.S. and potential recessionary headwinds.
Oct 20, 2023 • 1h 2min
Dr. Claudio Borio & Joseph Wang on Fiscal Dominance, Financial Instability, and the Boundaries Of Debt-Fueled Economic Growth
Renowned economist Dr. Claudio Borio and Joseph Wang discuss the interplay of monetary and fiscal policy, risks of high debt, self-reinforcing credit expansion, high vs low inflation regimes, correlation between money and inflation, and the impact of interest rate risk on the banking system and economy.
Oct 18, 2023 • 1h 11min
John Toohig & Nate Stovall: Bank Loan Market Is “Very Frozen”
John Toohig and Nate Stovall discuss the state of the U.S. banking industry, covering topics such as surging deposit costs, rising defaults, and a freeze on loan liquidity. They also explore declining margins in the bank loan market, the usage of held to maturity portfolios in banking, credit delinquencies and default rates, impacts of reserve methodology, challenges in the mortgage industry, interest rates and deposit growth, and market dynamics shifting from a seller's to a buyer's market.
Oct 17, 2023 • 1h 8min
Chris Whalen: Banking System On “Knife’s Edge” As Fed “May Destroy The World”
Chris Whalen of Whalen Global Advisors discusses recent bank earnings, commercial real estate risks, U.S. banking sector outlook, Charles Schwab's financial position, challenges faced by City and Goldman Sachs, and the resilience of financial companies
17 snips
Oct 16, 2023 • 1h 3min
The Future Of Financial Repression | Helen Thompson on Energy, Capital Controls, and the Federal Reserve
Helen Thompson, Professor of Political Economy at the University of Cambridge, discusses European energy, the Federal Reserve, financial repression, and rising geopolitical tensions. Topics include wind and solar power, nuclear energy, the strong American monetary power, implications of sovereign debt, financial repression and capital controls, the future of money, U.S.-China relations, and conflicts in the Middle East.
9 snips
Oct 12, 2023 • 1h 28min
Mike Green & Bob Elliott: "Hard Landing" In Store For Economy In 2024
Bob Elliott, CIO at Unlimited Funds, and Mike Green, Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management, discuss the late cycle slowdown coming in 2024. They cover topics such as the impact of passive investing, the relative value of bonds vs stocks, and the signals delinquencies are giving regarding credit. They also explore the potential results of geopolitical conflict on investments like Bitcoin, gold, and bonds, and whether the Fed will cut rates in 2024.
Oct 9, 2023 • 1h 5min
Bond Bear Eyes Tactical Long In Treasury Notes | David Cervantes
The podcast discusses David Cervantes' macroeconomic views, trading preferences, and the recent sell-off in the bond market. They explore the impact of Federal Reserve bond purchases on interest rates and the relationship between public sector deficits, private sector surpluses, and the possibility of a recession.
4 snips
Oct 5, 2023 • 1h 47min
Lyn Alden: The Monetary Order Is Broken
Lyn Alden discusses the recent bond market meltdown and explains why our monetary order is broken. They explore the pros and cons of hard money and how Bitcoin could provide a solution. They also touch on topics such as the risks of buying bonds, the state of the US economy, commercial real estate, and the lack of transparency in fiat money.
7 snips
Oct 3, 2023 • 1h 37min
The Great Bond Bear Steepening | Alfonso Peccatiello
Alfonso Peccatiello, Founder & CEO of The Macro Compass, discusses the U.S bond market sell-off and its implications, bond market sentiment, the best risk/reward being short equities, the weakness in Europe, understanding the yield curve, supply & demand in the U.S bond market, bear steepening during an inverted yield curve, and whether bonds will continue selling off until something breaks.
