Forward Guidance

Leland Miller, founder of China Beige Book, sits down with Jack Farley at Camp Kotok to give a brief update on the state of the Chinese economy. Miller argues that, cyclically, Chinese growth is actually better than many economists believe. However, he reiterates his view that from a secular point of view, he expects Chinese growth to continue to encounter major headwinds. Recorded on August 5, 2023.Follow Leland Miller on Twitter https://twitter.com/ChinaBeigeBookFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadigFollow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGICFollow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADVFollow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/InterdependenceFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo___Timecodes:(04:32) Chinese Real Estate Is An Absolute Mess(06:09) China's Economic Growth Model Has Changed(09:11) China's Economic Is Cyclically Better, But Securlarly Worse, Than Many Expect

Jim Bianco, founder and CEO of Bianco Research, and Samuel Rines, managing director at Corbu LLC, join Jack Farley on beautiful Leen’s Lodge for the first week of “Camp Kotok.”Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearchFollow Samuel Rines on Twitter https://twitter.com/SamuelRinesFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadigFollow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGICFollow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADVFollow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/InterdependenceFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo___Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(08:22) The Bond Market(12:45) I'm In The No-Landing Camp - Jim Bianco(17:40) Most Of The Effects Of The Fed's Hikes Have Already Been Felt(18:55) Forward Guidance Is A Problem - Samuel Rines

James Lavish, hedge fund veteran, managing director of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, and author of “The Informationist” newsletter, joins Forward Guidance to share his vision for the future of money.Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm.____Follow James Lavish on Twitter https://twitter.com/jameslavishFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction (03:52) The "Disease" Of Debt(16:03) The Fiscal Debt Spiral(28:25) Hard Assets As A Standard For Global Money(42:25) Valuing Bitcoin As A Call Option(49:22) Imagining A Deflationary Monetary System(58:36) Why Just Bitcoin?(01:03:51) Lavish's Bitcoin Opportunity Fund(01:09:47) Lavish: A Lot of Crypto Projects Are, In Fact, Securities(01:11:44) The Economy & The Federal Reserve(01:15:04) Tether(01:17:15) Optimal Macro Environment For Bitcoin____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital and Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors join Forward Guidance to discuss and debate all things liquidity.Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidanceFollow Michael Howell on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercap___Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspringFollow 2 Gray Beards on Twitter https://twitter.com/2GrayBeardsFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_More info on Damped Spring Advisors: https://dampedspring.com/More info on Crossborder Capital: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/Michael Howell’s Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/____Timecodes:(00:00) // Defining Global Liquidity(04:07) // Only Looking At Federal Reserve Liquidity Is A Big, Big Mistake(11:23) // Why Has Michael Howell's Global Liquidity Index (GLI) Been Rising?(18:49) // The U.S. Treasury's Issuance Composition Has Been A Huge Factor For Liquidity(31:36) // Is This "Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE)"?(44:06) // Inverted Yield Curve & Repo(53:19) // Michael Howell's Bull Case For Stocks(59:10) // The "Short All Assets" Trade(01:07:43) // Will The Fed Return To Outright Quantitative Easing (QE)?(01:11:41) // Is Liquidity Going To Expand? Yes, It Is - Michael Howell(01:17:44) // Final Points On Term Premia, Fiscal Arithmatic, And The Dollar____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 Partners, joins Forward Guidance to share his outlook for the challenges facing the Federal Reserve. Brigden argues that nominal economic growth in the U.S. remains too high, and that inflation is at risk of re-accelerating after its steady fall over the past year.Brigden expects that the rally in the U.S. stock market is fueling economic growth and in particular is preventing the increase in unemployment that normally accompanies the Fed’s interest rate hikes. As such, Brigden argues that markets are perched on a “knife’s edge” and that either stocks must halt their advance and start to decline, or bond must sell off drastically and the Federal Reserve must continue to hike interest rates.Filmed on July 26, 2023, shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference at the close of the meeting of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Brigden is also co-host of “Insider Talks” on Real Vision Pro.Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. Follow Julian Brigden on Twitter https://twitter.com/JulianMI2Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(00:30) Something Has To Crack(11:01) Hyperfinancialization Means Employment Will Stay High As Long As Stocks Keep Going Up(22:09) Recession Risk(26:41) What's More Likely, A Fall in Stocks Or A Fall In Bonds?(32:34) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Comparison To Subprime Mortgages In 2007(36:17) Is The Bond Market Still The "Smart Money"?(40:30) Is Liquidity Rising Or Falling?(43:26) Inverted Yield Curves Predict Recessions... Right? (Maybe No Longer!)(45:40) U.S. Housing Market(49:32) Julian's Bear Case For The U.S. Dollar(01:06:47) German Economy Is Very Sluggish(01:08:34) China(01:14:41) Will Japanese Interest Rates Be At Zero Forever?____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Mark Cabana, head of US Rates Strategy at BofA Global Research, joins Forward Guidance to share insights on today’s very strange bond market. Cabana, a former officer at the Markets Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, explains his bullish case for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which he expects to fall modestly as the Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycle approaches an end. Cabana also discusses the U.S. Treasury’s renewed issuance of Treasury bills as well as the SEC’s new ruling on money markets. Filmed on July 18, 2023.--Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(00:29) This Is A Very Strange Bond Market(05:59) Funding Pressures For Banks Have Eased, Looking At Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) Issuance Data(14:38) Migration Of Deposits Into Money Market Funds (MMFs) Has Slowed(23:00) Who's Going To Buy The Bonds?(31:51) Deep Dive on Treasury Bond Yields(34:29) Why (And When) Will The Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates?(42:47) Will Quantitative Tightening (QT) Continue For A Long Time?(46:32) 10-Year Treasury Is Very Clean Expression Of End-Of-Cycle Trade(49:54) SEC's New Rule For Money Market Funds--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6TFollow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiMFollow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX--In this episode I join the On The Margin podcast with Blockworks' very own newsletter writer Byron Gilliam for a wide raging discussion on the top stories of the week.With the recent Ripple vs SEC ruling, we discuss what impact this has for not only Ripple, but the crypto industry more broadly as many view this as a big win for the industry. We then dive deep into earnings with a number of companies reporting this week, and many more reporting next week. Will the big tech led bull run continue, or is this new bull market approaching a mania phase? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Byron: https://twitter.com/bgilliam1982Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Peter Atwater, Adjunct Professor of Economics at William and Mary, and author of “The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity” joins Forward Guidance to diagnose the sentiment that’s driving the current (unofficial) bull market in risk.Follow Peter Atwater on Twitter https://twitter.com/Peter_AtwaterFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Peter Atwater’s book, “The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity”: https://peteratwater.com/the-confidence-map-2/“The Confidence Map” on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Confidence-Map-Charting-Chaos-Clarity/dp/0593539559#:~:text=The%20Confidence%20Map%20is%20a,that%20too%20often%20feels%20senseless.____Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(00:38) Blue Sky Optimism Has Gripped The Stock Market(06:13) The Bubble Can ALWAYS Get Bigger(15:56) Sentiment On Recession Has Changed Massively(21:28) The Confidence Map(33:00) Passive Investing(39:09) Finding Extreme Sentiments In Markets(43:04) U.S. Banking System(45:46) The K-Shaped Recovery, 3 Years Later(57:04) Psychology Of The Federal Reserve(01:01:14) Commercial Real Estate (CRE)--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Rory Johnston, oil buff and founder of CommodityContext.com, returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he is now “cautiously bullish” on the price of oil because of Saudi Arabia’s significant cuts to its production quota. He also shares in details his reading of crack spreads, crude differentials, speculative positioning, and shape of futures curve. Filmed on July 12th, 2023.____Follow Rory Johnston on Twitter https://twitter.com/Rory_JohnstonFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Johnston’s latest Substacks on Commodity Context:https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/b93afa41-17dc-4d6e-9e75-ea9ca7da95f9https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/120157df-fe5d-45b5-b19a-ed3a8bab88f7https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/b93afa41-17dc-4d6e-9e75-ea9ca7da95f9____Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(00:21) An "Exhausting" Oil Market(02:59) The Cautious Bull Case For Oil(11:28) OPEC Cuts Can Support Higher Oil Prices(24:20) Has The Chinese Re-Opening Been A Flop?(31:36) Guyana(34:22) Deconstructing The "Capital Discipline" Narrative About Oil Companies(49:13) The Russian Supply Question(54:55) Price Cap(59:02) Differentials Between Different Types Of Crude Oil(01:03:10) The Washout Of The Way-Too-Long Oil Bulls(01:09:02) Futures Curve(01:15:07) Recession Risk____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass, returns to Forward Guidance to discuss why there's no U.S. recession as of yet, how long is the lag of rate hikes' effect on the economy, and why bonds haven't performed well despite a rapid fall in inflation. Jack and Alfonso debate whether central banks print money, and Alfonso poses a spirited challenge to the predictive power of liquidity (bank reserves) on risk assets. Filmed on July 12, 2023.Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlfFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_The Macro Compass: https://t.co/zmbDLZ99iN--Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissio...--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--(00:00) Introduction(00:20) The Recession That Didn't Show Up(11:35) How Big Is The Tightening of Credit Availability?(20:15) Is Quantitive Easing (QE) "Money Printing"? Jack & Alf Debate(29:45) Money Printing Type #1: Fiscal Deficits(38:47) Money Printing Type #2: Bank Lending(46:53) Money Printing Type #3: Non-Bank Lending(49:20) Can "Liquidity" Explain Market Returns? Alf Says No!(01:00:43) Why Haven't Bonds Performed As Inflation Has Fallen?(01:06:34) When Recession?—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.