Forward Guidance

Former Fed trader Joseph Wang discusses his outlook for 2024, including his stock market "crack up boom" thesis and the rise of fiscal dominance. They also dive into the Fed's QT program, the reverse repo outlook, and the impact of broader financial plumbing on markets.

Hari Krishnan, head of volatility strategies at SCT Capital Management, discusses his research on commodities, weather volatility, and the relationship between implied and realized volatility. They explore finding upside convexity in commodity options, the structural bull case for commodities, and the challenges of predicting weather compared to the stock market. They also examine the correlation between volatility and stock prices, the impact of interest rates on various markets, and the liquidity of futures contracts.

Andrei Stetsenko, Partner at Farley Capital, shares insights on investing in India's high-growth, high-quality companies. He discusses India's favorable demographics, accelerating urbanization, and growing infrastructure. Stetsenko highlights the common mistake of short-term thinking in investing and shares thoughts on payments, banking, and airlines industries. He also addresses the valuation differences between India and the U.S. stock markets.

Carson Block discusses the risks associated with Blackstone Mortgage Trust and the potential impact on the company's dividend and loan book due to a 'perfect macro storm'. He highlights that 73% of the CLO borrowers aren't covering interest expenses, and 27% can't pay the risk free rate. Block predicts a liquidity crisis due to expiring rate swaps and challenges in refinancing loans. Blackstone Mortgage Trust is facing potential liquidity problems and deterioration of assets.

The speaker discusses their bearish outlook on the stock market and private equity, highlighting high levels of bullish sentiment. They explore the challenges of short selling Blackstone and discuss the risks associated with private equity. The chapter also delves into the speaker's bearish outlook on stocks and private equity, as well as their predictions for further decline in rates on the yield curve. Additionally, they share their bearish stance on the stock market, their oil outlook, and promote an upcoming conference. They explore the concept of dollar cost averaging and index funds. The chapter also discusses the psychology behind people's financial decisions and the importance of sizing trades appropriately.

Carolyn Sissoko and Joseph Wang discuss the Fed's potential interest rate cuts in 2024, the collateral supply effect, and the merging of credit allocation facilities and money markets. They also touch on the rise of "Too Big To Fail," the separation of bank lending and money markets, central bank digital currencies, and the impact of the Fed's interest rate hikes on the financial system. Finally, they analyze the gamble in private equity and leveraged loans and discuss the outlook for stocks.

Daniel Neilson, economics professor and author, compares stablecoins to Eurodollars and discusses liquidity, par settlement, and the fragility of stablecoins. They explore the role of forward markets in the crypto world, the solvency of Tether and USDC, and the challenges of creating liquid forward markets in the crypto space.

Thomas Majewski, founder of Eagle Point Credit, discusses the advantages of Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs), private credit, and bank capital relief trades. Topics include CLO resilience in challenging times, impact of rising interest rates, liability structure of BDCs, and preference for CLO equity over senior tranches.

Kathy Jones, Chief Fixed Income Strategist at Schwab, discusses the bull case for bonds, caution on private credit & leveraged loans. Topics include the inverted yield curve, declining term premia, bond market tracking, bond supply's effect on price, the state of mortgage-backed securities, investment options beyond treasury strategy, and bond market sentiment.

Dan Siciliano, Chair of the Council of FHLBs, and Michael Ericson, President of the Chicago Federal Home Loan Bank, discuss the current health of the banking system. They cover topics such as the collapse of SVB, how the FHLB operates, credit risk, the role of the FHLB vs the Fed, and bank credit worthiness. They also share lessons learned from the March bank panic and discuss Silvergate Bank and Silicon Valley Bank.