Forward Guidance

Former hedge fund manager and private investor, Michael Kao, joins the hosts to discuss topics such as the Treasury refunding announcement, bear steepening in the bond market, Federal Reserve's stance on rate hikes, analysis of closed-end funds, analyzing yield spreads in the high-yield market, and predictions for CPI and real rates.

Warren Pies from 3Fourteen Research shares his views on bond supply, housing market, oil, and recession risk. He discusses the mortgage buydowns and their impact on homebuilders, predicts a recession in Q2 2024, talks about the relationship between interest rates, oil prices, and economic activity, and explores US government deficits and uncertainty.

Jeremy Siegel, Dave Goodson, Jeremy Schwartz, and Jack Farley discuss macro view on bonds, stocks, and economy, as well as analysis of securitized products including agency MBS, non-agency MBS, commercial MBS, and CLOs. They cover topics like impact of higher rates, tech company performance, attractiveness of bonds vs stocks, risks and opportunities in non-agency and MBS market, pricing of CLOs, risks in the CMBS market, and asset-backed securities market analysis.

Entrepreneur and cryptocurrency exchange founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, testifies in a trial, rebutting allegations of financial crimes. Topics discussed include evidence destruction, defense strategy, misuse of funds on FTX, Sam's testimony, document retention policy, potential sentencing, and challenges of a jury in the trial.

Craig Manchuck, a veteran high yield bond investor, joins the podcast to discuss the end of the zero interest rate era. They explore the bond market sell-off, opportunities in the bond market, and the rise of private credit. They also talk about the impact of CLOs and passive investing on bonds, the pain from higher interest rates, and the decline of the heyday of private equity.

Aidan Garrib, Global Macro Strategy & Research at PGM Global, takes a deep dive into the Chinese economy, discussing shadow debt, the government's crackdown on credit, and his outlook for Chinese equities. The podcast also covers the recent bond market sell-off in the U.S. and potential recessionary headwinds.

Renowned economist Dr. Claudio Borio and Joseph Wang discuss the interplay of monetary and fiscal policy, risks of high debt, self-reinforcing credit expansion, high vs low inflation regimes, correlation between money and inflation, and the impact of interest rate risk on the banking system and economy.

John Toohig and Nate Stovall discuss the state of the U.S. banking industry, covering topics such as surging deposit costs, rising defaults, and a freeze on loan liquidity. They also explore declining margins in the bank loan market, the usage of held to maturity portfolios in banking, credit delinquencies and default rates, impacts of reserve methodology, challenges in the mortgage industry, interest rates and deposit growth, and market dynamics shifting from a seller's to a buyer's market.

Chris Whalen of Whalen Global Advisors discusses recent bank earnings, commercial real estate risks, U.S. banking sector outlook, Charles Schwab's financial position, challenges faced by City and Goldman Sachs, and the resilience of financial companies

Helen Thompson, Professor of Political Economy at the University of Cambridge, discusses European energy, the Federal Reserve, financial repression, and rising geopolitical tensions. Topics include wind and solar power, nuclear energy, the strong American monetary power, implications of sovereign debt, financial repression and capital controls, the future of money, U.S.-China relations, and conflicts in the Middle East.