Forward Guidance

Anthony Dilweg, veteran real estate investor, discusses the challenges facing commercial real estate, particularly office spaces. He predicts over a billion square footage of U.S. office space will be obsolete. However, he also highlights investment opportunities for well capitalized players in the market distress. The podcast covers topics such as the parallels between football and real estate, the impact of remote work trends, the difficulties in valuing real estate assets, and the potential economic consequences of a commercial real estate meltdown.

Geopolitical analyst Marko Papic discusses the Russia-Ukraine war, highlighting its limited market impact. He also believes the Israel-Hamas conflict will be contained. The podcast explores gold's recent rally and the shift away from the US dollar. Papic delves into China's global ambitions and predicts a buying opportunity in China. The upcoming US presidential election and its potential consequences are also discussed.

Jens Nordvig, founder of Exante Data and Marketreader Inc., discusses the potential decrease in interest rates, the depreciation of the US dollar against 'risk-off' currencies, and the correlation between US interest rates, the dollar, and global growth. He also explores the unique characteristics of the US dollar and its impact on currency valuation, as well as the tactical shorting of the dollar and the long-term outlook for interest rates. The episode also touches on the upcoming Digital Asset Summit in London and the intersection of macroeconomics and crypto.

Nicholas Glinsman, veteran macro investor and co-founder at Malmgren-Glinsman Partners, discusses the potential unwinding of the "greatest carry trade in the world," shorting the yen and buying non-yen-denominated assets. He explains the implications of the Bank of Japan moving away from yield curve control and potentially raising interest rates. Other topics include the U.S. election, European sovereign debt crisis, and the impact of sustained inflation on the yen.

Jason Shapiro, founder of Crowded Market Report, discusses his philosophy for trading markets. He believes stocks will outperform bonds based on positioning and sentiment. Topics include stock/bond correlation, gold and oil, narratives, investing vs. trading, banks and commercial real estate, correlations, Jason's long position in the Swiss Franc, and the role of stop losses.

George Robertson, an economic analyst, argues that the fiscal stimulus will lead to a continuous economic boom. He challenges common conceptions on the risk-free yield curve and the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The podcast covers topics such as the potential for a recession, the relationship between interest rates and new home constructions, the behavior of euro dollars, and the disconnection between S&P 500 earnings and reality.

Jonny Matthews, ex-Brevan Howard portfolio manager, shares insights on shorting Treasury bonds, correlation trades, and variance swaps. He discusses the challenges of currency trading, the severe slowdown in Europe, and his view on the duration bubble and recession in the U.S.

In this podcast, Sam Burns, Founder of Mill Street Research, shares his insights on the current state of equities, including the housing market, banks, commercial real estate, healthcare, commodity sectors, and Chinese stocks. He also discusses equity momentum, disinflation, global manufacturing, trade downturn, fiscal tailwinds in the U.S., and the potential for a soft landing with declining interest rates.

Ben Santonelli, Portfolio Manager at Polen Capital, discusses the state of the high yield bond market and where he finds the best opportunities as debt investors can generate equity type returns. Topics include default rates, investing in high quality businesses, loan demand, liquidity, credit spreads, credit performance during a recession, margin compression, and potential refinancing issues.

Discussion on bear market in long-duration treasuries, foreign demand for US Treasuries and complications of hedging, hedging costs and yield curves, the state of US and European economies, and building a barbell portfolio with short and long maturities.