Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her views on the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause its hiking of interest rates. Filmed on June 14, 2023, after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference for the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBoothFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of Forward Guidance we invite Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro for a discussion on Powell's press conference post FOMC. With Tuesday's CPI report coming in-line with expectations, the Fed Funds rate now rests above the year over year inflation number. The number one question market participants are now asking themselves is will the Fed continue to hike, or is the hiking cycle about to reverse? Luckily, we have the perfect guest to help answer that question, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionlessResearch, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Robert Steven Kaplan, former President & CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, joins Forward Guidance to share his views on the U.S. economy, banking system, and the Fed itself. Filmed on June 12, 2023, two days before the end of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).Robert Kaplan’s website: https://www.robertstevenkaplan.com/--Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:22) Pause Likely at June Fed Meeting, According To Market Pricing(01:16) Why Kaplan Voted Against Ultra-Loose Monetary Policy (September 2020 Dissent re: Forward Guidance & Flexible Average Inflation Targeting)(05:02) Fed Has Slammed On The Brakes(06:40) Did Fed Action Exacerbate Banking Stress?(15:13) How Fed Thinks About Inverted Yield Curves(16:53) Global Economic Recovery, April 2020 to Present(24:02) Did The Fed "Monetize" The U.S. Debt?(25:10) Future Economic Outlook(29:25) In-Depth Thoughts On Banking Turmoil(39:36) Deposit Outflows Will Depend on The Credit Cycle(41:32) Interal Politics At The Federal Reserve(50:56) Fed Cuts Are Off The Table For Now(53:08) How Closely Does Fed React To Stock Market (vs. Credit Market)?(55:08) Inflation, Oil, and Energy Policy(59:34) Venture Philanthropy & Venture Capital(01:02:41) Closing Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode of Forward Guidance Eric Crittenden Chief Investment Officer at Standpoint Asset Management joins the show for a deep dive into the world of systematic macro investing.Eric walks through the current market outlook as many investors battle with recessionary concerns, but an equity market that continues climbing higher. Using a macro trend strategy and focusing on term structure, trend & liquidity, Eric explains how a systematic approach can help generate returns, as he was able to outperform the index since the launch of Standpoint in 2020. Finally, Eric shares his outlook for a variety of assets that his macro trend strategy is signalling both bullish & bearish signs for, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Standpoint Asset Management https://twitter.com/StandpointFundsFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Finding Opportunities Using A Macro Trend Strategy(04:21) Why Eric Has Been Long Japan, U.S & Europe In 2023(08:54) Generating Returns Using A Quantitative Strategy(15:27) How Market Structure Has Changed Since The 1980's(18:06) Shorting Oil In 2023(20:45) Permissionless(21:22) Market Hedging(27:53) Market Liquidity(29:49) Launching Standpoint In 2020(33:18) Artificial Intelligence(39:49) Blockworks Research(40:49) Harvesting Risk Premium(49:51) Eric's Principles For Successful Trading(55:19) What Will AI's Role Be In Financial Markets?(59:39) The Psychology Of Macro Trend(01:03:39) Gold--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today, Jack speaks with two veteran bankers about bank lending, a key engine of the real economy, and where it is headed. John Toohig, Head of Whole Loan Trading at Raymond James, and Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James, join Forward Guidance to share how the rapid surge in interest rates has drastically changed the math for community and regional banks. Now that deposits are no longer free, banks must charge far higher rates on their loans (auto, mortgage, commercial, commercial real estate, etc.) in order to earn a commensurate return. Toohig notes that some that banks have NOT yet sufficiently raised their loan yields, to account for this surge in cost of funds. There are two potential reasons for this: first, loan officers are making loans that may not make economic sense because they are incentivized to do so and/or it is to a key client relationship; and second, because many in the banking industry expect that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates which will put a ceiling on funding costs. However, bank regulators (such as the FDIC) may be in the process of forcing some banks to realized losses. Filmed on June 8, 2023.____Follow John Toohig on Twitter https://twitter.com/RJWholeLoansToohig’s latest edition of “Let’s Talk Loans” on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lets-talk-loans-vol-54-john-toohig/?trackingId=aQYzOQTGTamI1nI%2FRdRp4A%3D%3DFollow Randy Woodward on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheBondFreakFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(13:45) Liquidity In Seconday Loan Market(27:25) Permissionless(28:03) Commercial Real Estate(35:22) There's Something Far Scarier Than Higher Borrowing Costs(41:41) The Giant Flaw In The "Banks Don't Need Deposits Because They Create Deposits" Argument
44:38 Money Is Being Destroyed Right Now, That Means Less Lending"(51:49) Blockworks Research(52:49) Bankers Are Paying WAY More Attention To The Fed And Rates (And Nick Timiraos) Than They Were Pre-2020(57:29) Bank Regulators Are Encouraging Some Banks To Realize Losses(01:01:15) "Social Media Risk" For Banks(01:07:13) Why Don't The Banks Just Make Loans At Higher Rates?(01:10:34 Cracks Are Already Starting To Appear In Subprime Credit(01:14:37) Why Hasn't Credit Contraction Been Faster, Given These Headwinds?____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack is joined by an anonymous trader known only by their Twitter handle @Citrini7, who has the absolute “hottest hand” when it comes to picking Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks. Citrini is very optimistic about the boost that the adoption of AI will provide to semiconductor companies, data service providers, and optical fiber companies, and he describes in depth some of the stocks from his AI basket he thinks are most poised to benefit, which in aggregate are up ~50% this year.Quoting George Soros’ saying that, “when I see a bubble, I rush in to buy it,” Citrini thinks AI might prove to be a bubble, but that if it is a bubble, it is in the early stages. Filmed on June 2, 2023.Follow Citrini7 on Twitter https://twitter.com/Citrini7Citrini Substack https://citrini.substack.com/Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Timestamps:00:00 Intro03:51 Is Artificial Intelligence (AI) Already A Bubble?28:21 The Lipstick Effect32:50 How Can These Rich Valuations Be Justified?41:57 Permissionless42:34 The Losers of The Rise of Artificial Intelligence50:43 Blockworks Research

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has sued both Binance and Coinbase, and Casey Wagner, senior policy reporter at Blockworks, is here to break it all down.Recent Reporting by Casey Wagner on Blockworks:“Coinbase Put in House Hot Seat Hours After SEC Lawsuit Released”: https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-in-house-hot-seat“Regulation by Enforcement Is Unsustainable, CFTC Chair Tells Congress”: https://blockworks.co/news/regulation-by-enforcement-unsustainable“Coinbase Stock Tanks 16% Following SEC Lawsuit”: https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-stock-tanks-16-following-sec-lawsuit“SEC Labels 10 Tokens Securities in Binance Lawsuit”: https://blockworks.co/news/sec-10-tokens-securities____Follow Casey Wagner on Twitter https://twitter.com/caseywagnerrFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Vincent Daniel of Seawolf Capital returns to Forward Guidance to share his latest thinking on bank stocks, market structure, and long/short investing.Immortalized in “The Big Short,” Vincent’s interview with Jack and his partner Porter Collins in January 2022 can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_b_HCd0ir3k&t=10s____Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.4% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance____Follow Vincent Daniel on Twitter https://twitter.com/VD718Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Timestamps:(00:00) The Current Setup(06:49) Did SVB Response Fuel Recent Stock Market Rally?(09:22) The Perils Of Shorting Stocks(13:07) Debt Ceiling Resolution(21:17) Public.com(22:21) Passive & Vol Targeting Funds(26:24) Outlook on Stocks(29:47) Importance of Stop-Losses(31:12) How Much Research Before Taking A Position?(32:33) Concentration Risk/Reward: How Many Positions?(34:10) Why Vincent (and Porter) Shorted Banks Before Silicon Valley Bank Collapse(39:31) Banks' Moats Are Less Valuable Now, Says Vincent(42:58) Bank Run Risk Is Higher Now Than During Great Financial Crisis(44:52) Core Tier 1 Is Nonsense(54:01) Private Equity(01:02:30) Can High Debt Levels Hanlde High Interest Rates?(01:06:09) Slaying The Inflation Dragon(01:07:57) Vincent's Views On Bank Stocks Going Forward(01:12:46) Energy Stocks(01:17:00) "The Fed Put Never Died”(01:19:19) Views On Recession Risk: "It's Hard For Me To See A Reflationary Boom"(01:21:52) Uranium____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Alex Etra Senior Macro Strategist at Exante Data & Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro join the show for a discussion on the path ahead for H2 2023. Reflecting on the record bond losses in 2022, Alex shares his outlook on what to expect in the second half of 2023 as bond fund managers experience inflows and tech related equities continue surging higher despite the bearish sentiment in the broader market. We then move on to some of the monetary plumbing implications amidst the debt ceiling resolution and what impact it could have on markets as the U.S Treasury looks to re fill is dwindling Treasury General Account. To hear all this & more. you'll have to tune in!--Referenced In The Show: Back to 2019: https://fedguy.com/back-to-2019/ Money: Inside and Out: https://moneyinsideout.exantedata.com/ --Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissio...Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Preparing For June FOMC(05:23) Will The Fed Hike, Skip Or Cut?(07:25) Back To 2019(10:35) Permissionless(11:13) The Mechanics of The Treasury Cash-Futures Basis Trade(19:07) The Path Ahead In H2 2023(25:47) Reflecting On The Bond Markets Performance In 2022(34:21) Will A New Investor Class Replace Japanese Investors?(38:31) Equity Flows(43:46) Blockworks Research(44:46) Why Are Equity Markets Performing So Well In 2023?(51:51) The Mechanics of The U.S. Treasury, General Account(01:01:04) Quantitative Tightening: Is The Reverse Repo Heading Higher?(01:05:32) How Alex Tracks Market Flows--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Warren Mosler, founder of Valance Co., Inc. and author of “The 7 Deadly Innocent Frauds of Economic Policy,” is widely viewed as the intellectual godfather of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), a framework for understanding money and debt which underscores a government’s ability to print money to pay for goods and services without relying necessarily on borrowing or taxation. Mosler joins Forward Guidance to apply these ideas to today’s financial issues. He argues why a failure to raise the U.S. debt ceiling would be truly catastrophic, and he makes the case that the Fed’s rate hikes are actually contributing to inflation, rather than fighting it, because the government is printing more money in order to pay its debt. Filmed on May 30, 2023.____Follow Warren Mosler on Twitter https://twitter.com/wbmoslerFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Warren’s website: https://moslereconomics.com/Warren’s book and other writings: https://moslereconomics.com/mandatory-readings/____Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.____(00:00) Risk Of Government Unwind Would Be Catastrophic(07:24) "Money Is Just A Series Of Dots Going On And Off In People's Bank Accounts"(14:52) The Federal Reserve Prints Money(19:07) The Government Spends First, Taxes and Borrows Second(31:23) Permissionless(32:01) Quantitative Easing Does Not Have An Actual Effect On The Economy(33:17) High Interest Rates Mean More Deficit Spending(48:29) Challenging The Narrative of Volcker As The Slayer Of Inflation Dragon(54:00) Challenging The Wage Price Spiral(01:01:13) Currency Itself Is A "Public Monopoly"(01:04:04) We Are NOT In A Recession, Says Mosler(01:11:21) Is The Solution To Inflation To Cut Government Spending?(01:16:30) Blockworks Research(01:17:28) The Debt Ceiling(01:24:08) The Dollar