Forward Guidance
Blockworks
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBWFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceForward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
Episodes
Mentioned books
Mar 14, 2024 • 1h 5min
Nick Halaris: Commercial Real Estate Hanging In There Despite "Crushing" Interest Rate Shock
In this podcast, Nick Halaris discusses the impact of rising interest rates on commercial real estate deals, the resilience of multi-family housing, and the potential bottoming out of the office market. He also shares insights on the single-family housing market and the challenges faced by investors in a shifting real estate landscape.
20 snips
Mar 12, 2024 • 59min
Liz Ann Sonders: There's No Such Thing As A Typical Interest Rate Cutting Cycle
Liz Ann Sonders from Charles Schwab discusses U.S. equities, highlighting the strength in a few large cap stocks. She challenges the idea of a typical Fed interest rate cutting cycle and its impact on the stock market. The podcast also explores Bitcoin accessibility through ETFs and the economic stimulus impact, along with the influence of AI on market performance.
4 snips
Mar 8, 2024 • 52min
The Fate Of The Fed's Balance Sheet | Lou Crandall & Joseph Wang on Draining of Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility, Timeline of QT Taper, and 2024 Tax Refund Data
Discussions on the decline of Fed's balance sheet and basis trade, Lou's accurate prediction on BTFP renewal, insights on QT tapering, money market data indicating QT continuation, exploring US fiscal spending impacts
Mar 7, 2024 • 55min
The Erosion of Institutional Accountability | Dr. Luigi Zingales on Bank Failures, Whistleblowing, and The Fed
The podcast discusses the erosion of institutional accountability, focusing on bank failures and whistleblowing. It explores potential solutions like the abolition of NDAs and the role of activist investors. The conversation touches on the future of financial technology, including Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) and the impact on commercial banks. The episode also delves into the complexities of the American economy post-financial crisis and the challenges faced by the commercial real estate sector.
43 snips
Mar 4, 2024 • 1h 42min
Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929
Renowned market technician Milton Berg shares bearish outlook on the stock market rally, highlighting signs of a potential peak. Discussion on unique strength and weakness of current bull market, indicators pointing towards market top, and reasons for leaning bearish. Insights on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, earnings cycle, and potential scenarios for market decline.
7 snips
Mar 3, 2024 • 57min
Remi Tetot on AI, Crypto, and Uranium
Topics include caution around stock market valuations, cyclical nature of Nvidia's data center business, skepticism towards AI hype, discussions on Fed's balance sheet and rate cuts, insights into the crypto market trends and investment strategies, uranium supply and demand dynamics, and Remi's long idea on homebuilders.
Feb 29, 2024 • 1h 6min
Claudia Sahm: The Fed Itself Is The Biggest Risk To A Soft Landing
Exploring the risk of recession and the role of the Federal Reserve, labor market indicators, issues in commercial real estate, and the impact on financial markets. Discussion on the failed notion of 'technical recession,' potential triggers for GDP declines, and the importance of Fed's data-driven decisions. Insightful analysis on Bitcoin as a macro asset and the VanEck Bitcoin Trust ETF, along with labor market trends and the Fed's monetary policies.
5 snips
Feb 27, 2024 • 1h 5min
Adrian Helfert on Stock/Bond Allocation, Equity Broadening, and Credit Market Richness
Adrian Helfert discusses stock/bond allocation, equity breadth, and credit market richness. He emphasizes overweighting stocks over bonds. The podcast also explores stock market valuations, return attribution, and the notion of 'equity duration'. Additionally, it delves into comparisons to the Dot Com Bubble and the outlook on credit and duration risk in the bond market.
41 snips
Feb 26, 2024 • 1h 26min
Overheated Stock Market To Correct Before Continuing Rally | Le Shrub on Le Shrub on AI, CRE, and China
Topics covered in the podcast include shorting credit during the Great Financial Crisis, challenges in commercial real estate, a prediction of a stock market correction, the impact of AI on company valuations, Bitcoin as a macroeconomic asset, inflation types, and Treasury operations on the stock market
Feb 23, 2024 • 52min
Real Estate Crisis Hits Two German Banks | Josef Pschorn on Deutsche Pfandbriefbank and Aareal Bank
An in-depth discussion on the potential crisis at Deutsche Pfandbrief Bank, negative net interest margin challenges, and comparison to Greek and Spanish banks. Insights into the liability structure, bail-in-ability of AT1 debt, and long-term liabilities. Exploration of risks in European banking, real estate market dynamics, and strategies for overcoming challenges in the evolving banking environment.
