Forward Guidance

David Kotok, co-founder and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors, discusses the Federal Reserve's commitment to financial stability and its impact on US financial assets. He also shares insights about the Cuban financial system after his trip to Cuba. Other interesting topics include US sanctions on Cuba, concerns about the Chinese economy, and concerns about financial stability amid geopolitical conflicts.

The podcast discusses the reasons behind the recession forecast in 2022 and how the speaker's view differed, highlighting positive economic indicators and the housing market. It also explores factors that supported the economy in 2023, such as home sales and the actions of the Fed. They delve into the relationship between real incomes, household balance sheets, and the savings rate in recessions. The impact of the Federal Reserve's rate hikes on different sectors, the housing market, and corporate credit markets is discussed. They also touch on government spending, neutral rates, and financial markets. The podcast concludes with a discussion on the economic outlook and potential actions of the Federal Reserve, as well as the strength of the labor market and potential job growth. Lastly, concerns about a mix-up in the bond market are addressed, and the availability of the speaker's firm's research on Twitter is mentioned.

Cam Harvey, inventor of inverted yield curve recession signal, shares insights on his discovery of the signal in the bond market in the 1980s. The 10-year Treasury yield and 3-month Treasury yield spread has a perfect track record of preceding recessions. Harvey predicts a potential economic slowdown in the first and second quarter of 2024. The podcast discusses the effectiveness of the yield curve in forecasting recessions, the causal relationship between the inverted yield curve and recessions, and the theory behind it and the 2008 financial crisis.

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, discusses the global liquidity cycle, the Federal Reserve's injection efforts, and the correlation between liquidity, stocks, gold, and crypto. He explores the impact of liquidity on different market sectors and provides insights into future investment strategies. Howell also highlights the importance of tracking global liquidity as a leading indicator for asset prices and addresses the potential for future quantitative easing.

Andy Verity, Economics Correspondent for BBC News, discusses revelations from his book on the LIBOR scandal. The interview includes recordings of whistleblower Peter Johnson, highlighting widespread underreporting of borrowing costs. Verity argues that central bankers and bank CEOs encouraged the rigging. The podcast explores manipulation of LIBOR rates, involvement of higher-ups, government interference, and the lack of accountability. It also discusses the relationship between the justice system and politics, the unpredictable future of interest rates, and the challenges of predicting risks.

Kevin Muir, veteran trader and publisher of The Macro Tourist newsletter, discusses the U.S. fiscal deficit, buy-write ETFs, and reasons why he is bullish on inflation breakevens and Japanese equities. He believes inflation surprises will be consistently to the upside and talks about his excitement for Harley Bassman’s new mortgage ETF.

Paul Hodges, consultant and publisher of The pH Report, discusses the overcapacity in the chemical industry, low prices indicating weakened demand, the possibility of a soft landing in the US economy, the risks of overcapacity and debt crises in Asia, and China's potential money distribution impacting the global economy. Hodges also explores the impact of subprime mortgages on demand, concerns about the stock market rally and political risk, fluctuations in interest rates, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, and the value of strong point of view in research reports.

Danielle DiMartino Booth and George Goncalves discuss the 2024 Fed pivot, analyzing the potential for a recession or soft landing. They delve into topics such as the decrease in inflation, increase in real income growth, and the challenges faced by the Fed in managing the economy. They also explore revisions to non-farm payrolls data, the Digital Asset Summit London conference, credit performance, and the Federal Reserve's holdings and interest rate predictions.

Former Fed trader Joseph Wang discusses his outlook for 2024, including his stock market "crack up boom" thesis and the rise of fiscal dominance. They also dive into the Fed's QT program, the reverse repo outlook, and the impact of broader financial plumbing on markets.

Hari Krishnan, head of volatility strategies at SCT Capital Management, discusses his research on commodities, weather volatility, and the relationship between implied and realized volatility. They explore finding upside convexity in commodity options, the structural bull case for commodities, and the challenges of predicting weather compared to the stock market. They also examine the correlation between volatility and stock prices, the impact of interest rates on various markets, and the liquidity of futures contracts.