Edward Chancellor, distinguished investor, financial historian, and author, joins Forward Guidance to discuss his latest book “The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest.” Chancellor shares with host Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (“Fed Guy”) how artificially low interest rates can distort markets and foment bubbles.“The Price of Time”: https://www.amazon.com/Price-Time-Real-Story-Interest/dp/0802160069____Follow Edward Chancellor on Twitter https://twitter.com/chancellor_e?lang=enFollow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Joseph Wang’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12/featuredJoseph Wang’s writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/____Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(00:31) How Ultra-Low Interest Rates Cause Asset Bubbles(11:03) The History Of The Gold Standard(18:54) Deflation Isn't Always Bad(30:06) Negative Interest Rates Are A Tax On Capital(37:17) Low-Rates Boost Venture Capital and Private Equity(45:27) I'm Fairly Dubious About Cryptos(46:44) Unicorns and Zombies(54:20) Elite Overproduction(57:39) How High Can Interest Rates Go?____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Since the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023, many investors have been closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s recent lending to U.S. banks, which amounts to roughly $100 Billion as of late June.What has received far less attention is the Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) system, which has extended over $1 Trillion of liquidity (10x the Fed!) to banks throughout the U.S.Kathryn Judge, Harvey J. Goldschmid Professor of Law at Columbia Law School, joins Forward Guidance to explain the history and purpose of the FHLBanks, calling them the “lender of second-to-last resort.” Judge argues that the FHLB system has grown beyond its original mission and that reform is desperately needed. Judge also opines on the SEC’s move to regulate crypto, as well as SOFR’s replacement of LIBOR. Filmed on June 29th, 2023.____Follow Kathryn Judge on Twitter https://twitter.com/ProfKateJudgeFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Kathryn Judge’s book, “Direct: The Rise of the Middleman Economy and the Power of Going to the Source”: https://kathrynjudge.com/books/direct“The Problem Lender of Second-to-Last Resort”: https://prospect.org/economy/2023-03-29-problem-lender-federal-home-loan-banks/____Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timestamps:(00:00) U.S. Banking System Is "Uneven"(03:06) What Is The Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) System?(07:24) Deregulation in 1980s and 1990s(11:22) Commercial Banks vs. Thrifts (And Glass–Steagall)(17:31) FHLB Lending During Great Financial Crisis (GFC)(25:14) "FHLB Has Never Lost Money On Advances"(33:54) FHLB's "Abuses" Must Stop(34:28) Permissionless(41:24) What Will New Bank Regulation Look Like?(50:38) Risk-Weighting In Bank Capital Regulations(53:42) Blockworks Research(54:42) Held-To-Maturity Accounting(58:37) The Rise Of Middlemen in Finance And Business(01:06:00) SEC's War With Crypto(01:08:04) The End Of LIBOR Eurodollar Contracts____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

--On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager turned private investor & Alexander Stahel, Founder & CIO at Burggraben Holding AG join the show for a discussion on the current state of global macro & how those current macro factors are impacting energy markets.Turning bearish on oil in late 2022, Michael & Alex were able to sidestep the current downward price action experienced in 2023. Expecting macro headwinds and a less bullish setup in the supply & demand fundamentals, Michael & Alex walk through what the oil bulls got wrong & what to expect in the second half of 2023.Michael also shares his framework for the U.S dollar wrecking ball, which seems to be claiming its most recent victims over in Asia, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboyFollow Alexander: https://twitter.com/BurggrabenHFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissio...Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(06:37) Why The Oil Bulls Were Wrong In 2023(13:47) Did Russian Sanctions Actually Impact Oil Supply?(23:43) Forecasting Oil Prices(31:05) European Gas Prices(33:37) The U.S Dollar Wrecking Ball(38:41) Lessons From The Asian Financial Crisis(41:34) Chinese Oil Demand(01:01:33) Why We're Not In An Oil Bull Market(01:17:23) Oil Has Further Downside Risk(01:24:13) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46mn1n3Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiMFollow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX__This episode is taken from the weekly roundup edition of the On The Margin podcast hosted by Mike Ippolito where we discuss the biggest news stories of the week.As economic data & growth remains resilient, markets continue rallying despite negative sentiment coming into the year. We discuss whats in store for the second half of the year & whether the Fed will get their soft landing? —Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_—Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/—Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

To get $1,000 off an annual subscription to QI Pro, Danielle DiMartino Booth’s institutional-grade research service, go to https://quillintelligence.com/register/qi-pro-friends-of-farley/.$3,000 instead of $4,000 for the first year, offer ends in July. Interested parties may request a sample report of QI Pro by emailing Danielle DiMartino Booth at danielle@dimartinobooth.com.Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance on a mission to dispute the notion that the U.S. economy is strong.Booth challenges the apparently-rosy economic data and points to where the data is either very lagging or, as she says about the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) data, “painfully corrupted.”Booth explains why she expects inflation to continue to fall very sharply, and why she expects the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates at least one more time in July (and perhaps again in September). Filmed on June 20, 2023.--Follow Danielle: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBoothFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(00:47) Laying Inflation To Rest(07:43) Shortages Have Become Gluts(09:32) Housing Is Strong, Right?(14:04) Hidden Cracks In The Labor Market(16:49) Official Bureau of Labor Data Is "Painfully Corrupted"(24:23) Global Economic Impulse Is Disinflationary(28:56) Liquidity Is NOT Increasing, Says Danielle(35:04) QI Pro Discount(39:06) Fed Will Likely Hike Rates In July (And Maybe September), Says Danielle--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today’s special guest is a true expert in global money. Robert McCauley’s life work on the international monetary system is authoritative and seminal, and he joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang to answer questions such as:- how do Eurodollars actually work?- is the rest of the world long or short dollars? (the answer may surprise you)- how does the level of the dollar mechanically impact offshore dollar credit?McCauley confirms many rumors about Eurodollars (offshore dollars), as well as debunks several of their myths. He shares his view on the dollar’s role in the future of global money, and he details the astronomically large sums in the FX swap market used to hedge dollar exposure. McCauley also asks Joseph Wang a question about the fall of LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offered Rate) and the rise of SOFR (secured overnight financing rate). Filmed on June 21, 2023.Robert McCauley is the Senior Fellow at the Global Economic Governance Initiative at the Boston University Global Development Policy Center. He previously served as senior advisor to the monetary & economics department at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), as well as at the New York Fed.--Robert McCauley’s Eighth Edition of “Manias, Panics, and Crashes”:https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2023/03/22/manias-panics-and-crashes-a-history-of-financial-crises/On Amazon:https://www.amazon.com/Manias-Panics-Crashes-History-Financial/dp/303116007XRobert McCauley’s papers referenced during the show:“The Global Domain of the Dollar: Eight Questions”:https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2021/02/09/the-global-domain-of-the-dollar-eight-questions/“Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards: huge, missing and growing”:https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212h.pdf“Seven decades of international banking”:https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2109e.pdf“The International Economic and Financial Order After the Pandemic and War,” pages 123-128:https://media.iese.edu/research/pdfs/76606.pdf“London as a financial centre since Brexit: evidence from the 2022 BIS Triennial Survey”: https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull65.pdfJoseph Wang’s latest piece on SOFR (paywalled): https://fedguy.com/long-live-sofr/--Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Joseph Wang’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(01:33) Origin Of The Eurodollar System(19:46) Eurodollar Deposits Rarely Take Losses, But Silicon Valley Bank's Eurodollars Are In Limbo And May Be Lost(26:12) Can Non-U.S. Banks Print Dollar Deposits At Will?(39:50) Banking As A Percentage of GDP Peaked Many Years Ago(43:14) Is The Rest Of The World Long Dollars, Or Short Dollars?(53:49) Is The De-Dollarization Narrative Just A Lot Of Hot Air?(01:11:49) Who's Going To Buy U.S. Treasurys?(01:20:38) The Dollar's Role Does Not Give The U.S. An "Exorbitant Privilege"(01:24:29) $35 Trillion Dollar Hidden Debt Via FX Swaps(01:38:05) Robert McCauley's Question For Joseph Wang On SOFR & LIBOR--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

With the VIX at a 3-year low, Kris Sidial, tail risk manager & co-chief investment officer of The Ambrus Group, returns to Forward Guidance to tell Jack about what it’s like hedging tail risk during a volatility bear market (bull market in risk, bear market in vol). Sidial sheds light on the spectacular rise of Zero Day To Expiration (0DTE) Options and explains why he thinks their proliferation poses a serious risk to market structure. That being said, Sidial thinks implied volatility could continue to decline for a while. Filmed on June 23, 2023.--Follow Kris Sidial on Twitter https://twitter.com/KsidiiiFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Ambrus’ paper on Zero Day To Expiration (0DTE) Options:https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5f6299603ceb25330f902e7d/t/644beff4e8d2ee6519d85da2/1682698232481/Ambrus+Capital+-+Dispelling+False+Narratives+About+0DTE+Options.pdf--Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissio...Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timecodes:(00:16) Market Volatility Is At A Three-Year Low(07:34) Implied Volatility Could Go Even Lower(15:14) Tail Risk Strategies(36:01) The Stunning Rise Of Zero Days To Expiration (0DTE) Options(41:29) Huge Amounts Of Unregulated Leverage In 0DTE Options(52:31) Market Crash Is "Inevitable" Because Of Zero Day To Expiration Options(01:04:14) Banks' Hedging Of Interest Rate Risk(01:07:52) Performance Reporting of Tail Fund Risk Funds--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46mn1n3Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiMFollow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX__This episode is taken from the weekly roundup edition of the On The Margin podcast hosted by Mike Ippolito where we discuss the biggest news stories of the week.With Bitcoin breaking past $30,000, equity indices reaching new bull market territory and many speculating that the Fed has finished hiking, we walk through the liquidity backdrop and if we are entering a new bull market, or not? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!—Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_—Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/—Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital returns to Forward Guidance with a much-needed update on global liquidity.--Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/crossbordercapFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissio...Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:02) Rising Liquidity Is Supporting A New Bull Market(07:07) Are Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE) and Yield Curve Control Already Here?(27:06) We're In A Liquidity Cycle Upturn(32:42) Falling Inflation Has Boosted Liquidity & Price / Earnings (P/E) Multiples(40:58) Liquidity Is Rising In China & Japan(47:20) Howell's Not Very Bullish On Bonds(54:53) Stocks Will Likely Continue To Outperform Bonds(56:06) When Will The Fed Start Cutting Interest Rates?(01:00:08) Internals Of Stock Market Indicate Global Economic Slowdown Is Likely Already Behind Us(01:03:00) Liquidity Is High In Chinese Financial System(01:13:25) Inflows Into Emerging Markets Are "Very Unusual"(01:16:20) How To Measure Bank of Japan's Liquidity Injections(01:17:25) Bank of England (BOE) and European Central Bank (ECB) Are Less Important Than Fed & People's Bank of China (PBOC)(01:18:29) The Fiscal Endgame (Rates Have To Stay High To Prevent Further Debt Build-up)(01:31:42) When Will Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE) Turn Into Outright QE?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Louis Camhi, founder and chief investment officer of RLH Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to provide a strategic update on the world of SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies).___Follow Louis Camhi on Twitter https://twitter.com/valwithcatalystFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks____Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissio...Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/___Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos___Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction (00:58) "A Lot Of The Optionality of SPACs Is Dead"(17:25) State of SPAC Dealflow In Summer 2023(32:08) Warrant Arbitrage(59:43) SPAC LIquidiation Wave in December 2022 Because of Stock Buyback Tax Threat In Inflation Reduction Act(01:06:49) "SPACs Are A Bull Market Product"(01:20:02) How SPAC Yields Have Changed With RIsing Interest Rates(01:29:17) Macroeconomic Implications(01:32:07) View on Banks(01:38:26) Cannabis___Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.