Forward Guidance
Blockworks
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBWFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceForward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
Episodes
Mentioned books
Apr 21, 2024 • 42min
Chris Whalen: “Higher For Longer” Interest Rate Regime Is Bad For Banks
Financial analyst Chris Whalen discusses the impact of 'Higher For Longer' interest rates on banks. Topics include banking net interest income, commercial real estate, consumer deposits, mid-size vs. big banks, Bank of America's performance, and the effects of the interest rate regime on banks' core business.
33 snips
Apr 18, 2024 • 1h 35min
The Great Liquidity Debate | Michael Howell & George Robertson on Monetary vs. Fiscal Flows And What Is Truly Driving This Bull Market
Guests Michael Howell and George Robertson debate the true drivers of the bull market, with Michael focusing on global liquidity and central bank balance sheets while George dismisses their influence. Topics include contrasting views on the Fed, impact of liquidity on markets, Bitcoin ETF availability, government influence on Treasury yields, and predictions of a market downturn by 2025.
20 snips
Apr 15, 2024 • 1h 33min
Mark Dow: The Bears Are Making Stuff Up About Fed/Treasury Plumbing To Excuse The Fact That They Were Wrong
Mark Dow, with vast experience in the global monetary system, challenges the notion that monetary plumbing drives asset price fluctuations. He discusses the limited impact of QE on mortgage spreads and questions the wealth effect. Dow highlights the psychology behind stock market valuations and the misattributed influence of interest rates.
29 snips
Apr 8, 2024 • 1h 11min
The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield”
Jonathan Treussard from Treussard Capital Management discusses the definition of bubbles and the risks of 'engineered yield'. He finds US market valuations high, preferring cheaper European and Japanese markets. The conversation covers private credit, ethical concerns, stock market valuations with focus on Nvidia, and the impact of a potential new Cold War on global economic dynamics.
8 snips
Apr 4, 2024 • 1h 40min
Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold
Rupert Mitchell, a former investment banker experienced in Chinese IPOs, discusses how cheaply produced Chinese EVs will impact the global market. He touches on topics like tires, refiners, gold miners, and the dominance of China in the electric vehicle industry. Mitchell explains the potential 'bloodbath' awaiting middle-market global EV makers due to Chinese competition.
Apr 1, 2024 • 1h 20min
The "Beijing Put" | Jason Hsu's Bull Case For Chinese Stocks
Jason Hsu dives into the Chinese equity market, highlighting the potential for onshore Chinese stocks. Topics include the real estate market dynamics, China's push to move up the value chain, and the affordability of Chinese stocks. Regulatory scrutiny on tech, the banking system's resilience, and the impact of the Japanese real estate bust are also discussed.
9 snips
Mar 29, 2024 • 1h 7min
Inflation Isn’t Going Away And Investors Own The Wrong Assets | Larry McDonald on “When Markets Speak”
Larry McDonald discusses the shift from tech to natural resources due to impending inflation. Topics include macroeconomics, hard assets investment, inflationary landscape, commodities market, NVIDIA valuation, Bitcoin as a hedge, S&P 500 sector changes, effects of inflation on purchasing power, impact of interest rates, US dollar as reserve currency, and contrarian investing strategies.
25 snips
Mar 28, 2024 • 40min
Joseph Wang, Michael Howell, Julian Brigden, and Jonny Matthews on 2024 Macro Outlook | Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (Recorded March 19, 2024)
Macro analysts Joseph Wang, Michael Howell, Julian Brigden, and Jonny Matthews share their 2024 outlook on global economy, stocks, bonds, currencies, and Bitcoin. Discussions include U.S. outperforming global economy, loose financial conditions, central bank policies, Bitcoin as hedge, Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts dilemma, and future of US dollar and cryptocurrencies.
61 snips
Mar 26, 2024 • 1h 13min
Russell Napier On The Rise And Fall Of The Age Of Debt And China’s Choice Between Deflation and Devaluation
Russell Napier, founder of Orlock Advisors, discusses China's monetary policy decisions, Bitcoin as a hedge, real estate bubbles, foreign exchange reserves impact, stock market dynamics in Asia, and potential US implications of Chinese monetary policy. They explore historical shifts in monetary policy, China's role in global monetary dynamics, and the challenges of managing credit growth and debt levels.
Mar 18, 2024 • 2h 28min
Dr. Ingo Sauer on Hyperinflation, Central Bank Insolvency, and The ECB (European Central Bank)
Dr. Ingo Sauer discusses hyperinflation in 1923, central bank insolvency, and the ECB. He argues that impairment of central bank assets, not money printing, caused extreme inflation. Sauer shares concerns about the ECB's balance sheet. The podcast explores historical hyperinflation events, currency devaluation post-World War I, and central bank solvency. It also delves into the impact of hyperinflation in Germany, differences between central bank money and bank money, and central bank management of yield curves and risks.
