Forward Guidance

Explore the world of small cap value investing, finding great stocks and avoiding 'value traps'. Learn the role of macro in the economy, strategies for generating short ideas, and insights on corporate malfeasance. Discover essential resources for value investing and the challenges in the small cap market.

Financial expert Andrzej Skiba discusses the rising risks in private credit lending. Topics include the definition of private credit, the risky nature of the deals, the lack of data on performance during defaults, the illiquidity of the asset class, and the interplay between private credit and the rest of the fixed income universe.

Danny Dayan, an economist and risk analyst, discusses various intriguing topics including the risks of a recession, the impact of an overheating economy, trading strategies with options, analyzing the strength of the US economy, demographics' influence on the economy, the impact of refinancing, and future plans.

Financial analyst Martin Pelletier and economist Joseph Wang discuss topics such as stock market concentration, cash-futures treasury basis trade, structured products, and New York Community Bank. They analyze the impact of passive investing on tech stocks, address concerns about NYCB's earnings report, and explore levering up the basis trade in fixed income and treasuries. They also discuss the performance of regional bank stocks, the Canadian banking sector, and investment opportunities in the market.

An analysis of the Chinese economy reveals its reliance on rolling loans and accumulating credit, leading to an exponential breakdown. The impending collapse of China's real estate bubble and its potential economic impact is discussed, along with the challenges faced in transitioning to high-tech industries. Bitcoin's role as a hedge against devaluation and insights into the Chinese real estate market are explored. China's struggle with debt, technology, and economic slowdown is examined, including concerns about intellectual property rights. The bearish stance on the stock market, short position on Chinese banks, and investing in the Chinese tech sector as an alternative are discussed. China's economic situation and potential remedies, such as debt deflation and reflation, are explored. Concerns about inflation and deflation in China, the interplay between the US and China, and the risks of a big dollar rally are also discussed.

In this podcast, Sertrini, a successful stock market predictor, discusses their previous predictions and their performance. They also talk about the potential overvaluation of Super Micro and the importance of identifying new winners in the market. The speakers also discuss topics such as inflation, growth, and consumer spending, as well as the concept of asymmetric risk in investing in China. They also share their recommended stock picks and the challenges of generating alpha in the AI industry.

Dean Curnutt, founder and CEO of Macro Risk Advisors, discusses the bear market in volatility and worrisome positive correlation between stocks and bonds. He explores the impact of stock-bond correlation on investors and observations in the bond market. Curnutt also talks about Bitcoin as a hedge, VIX as a measure of implied volatility, and market predictions. He delves into the impact of Federal Reserve cuts, debt duration, and historical movements of the VIX. Curnutt explores option pricing, volatility risk premium, and unique market dynamics in 2022. Additionally, he discusses stock correlation and common options mistakes made by institutional investors.

Joseph Wang discusses the hawkish Fed conference, asset prices, rates, and the timing of quantitative tightening. They also explore the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy, the role of the discount window, and the bullish outlook for equity markets.

Plumbing savant John Comiskey predicts U.S. Treasury issuance to exceed $1.1 trillion in Q2 2024. Topics include understanding the balance sheet discrepancy, Bitcoin as a macro asset, forecasting the monetary system, and the goals of the U.S. Treasury.

Chris Whalen, financial advisor and founder of Whalen Global Advisors, discusses the challenges in the US banking sector, particularly in commercial real estate. He highlights the impact of COVID, rising interest rates, and potential credit events. Whalen also explores the consequences of interest rate shocks, the importance of risk management for banks, and the proposals of Basel 3. Additionally, he delves into gain on sale accounting, mortgage servicing rights, and the future outlook for the banking sector.