Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 Partners, joins Forward Guidance to share his outlook for the challenges facing the Federal Reserve. Brigden argues that nominal economic growth in the U.S. remains too high, and that inflation is at risk of re-accelerating after its steady fall over the past year.Brigden expects that the rally in the U.S. stock market is fueling economic growth and in particular is preventing the increase in unemployment that normally accompanies the Fed’s interest rate hikes. As such, Brigden argues that markets are perched on a “knife’s edge” and that either stocks must halt their advance and start to decline, or bond must sell off drastically and the Federal Reserve must continue to hike interest rates.Filmed on July 26, 2023, shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference at the close of the meeting of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Brigden is also co-host of “Insider Talks” on Real Vision Pro.Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. Follow Julian Brigden on Twitter https://twitter.com/JulianMI2Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(00:30) Something Has To Crack(11:01) Hyperfinancialization Means Employment Will Stay High As Long As Stocks Keep Going Up(22:09) Recession Risk(26:41) What's More Likely, A Fall in Stocks Or A Fall In Bonds?(32:34) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Comparison To Subprime Mortgages In 2007(36:17) Is The Bond Market Still The "Smart Money"?(40:30) Is Liquidity Rising Or Falling?(43:26) Inverted Yield Curves Predict Recessions... Right? (Maybe No Longer!)(45:40) U.S. Housing Market(49:32) Julian's Bear Case For The U.S. Dollar(01:06:47) German Economy Is Very Sluggish(01:08:34) China(01:14:41) Will Japanese Interest Rates Be At Zero Forever?____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Mark Cabana, head of US Rates Strategy at BofA Global Research, joins Forward Guidance to share insights on today’s very strange bond market. Cabana, a former officer at the Markets Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, explains his bullish case for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which he expects to fall modestly as the Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycle approaches an end. Cabana also discusses the U.S. Treasury’s renewed issuance of Treasury bills as well as the SEC’s new ruling on money markets. Filmed on July 18, 2023.--Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(00:29) This Is A Very Strange Bond Market(05:59) Funding Pressures For Banks Have Eased, Looking At Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) Issuance Data(14:38) Migration Of Deposits Into Money Market Funds (MMFs) Has Slowed(23:00) Who's Going To Buy The Bonds?(31:51) Deep Dive on Treasury Bond Yields(34:29) Why (And When) Will The Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates?(42:47) Will Quantitative Tightening (QT) Continue For A Long Time?(46:32) 10-Year Treasury Is Very Clean Expression Of End-Of-Cycle Trade(49:54) SEC's New Rule For Money Market Funds--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6TFollow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiMFollow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX--In this episode I join the On The Margin podcast with Blockworks' very own newsletter writer Byron Gilliam for a wide raging discussion on the top stories of the week.With the recent Ripple vs SEC ruling, we discuss what impact this has for not only Ripple, but the crypto industry more broadly as many view this as a big win for the industry. We then dive deep into earnings with a number of companies reporting this week, and many more reporting next week. Will the big tech led bull run continue, or is this new bull market approaching a mania phase? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Byron: https://twitter.com/bgilliam1982Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Peter Atwater, Adjunct Professor of Economics at William and Mary, and author of “The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity” joins Forward Guidance to diagnose the sentiment that’s driving the current (unofficial) bull market in risk.Follow Peter Atwater on Twitter https://twitter.com/Peter_AtwaterFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Peter Atwater’s book, “The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity”: https://peteratwater.com/the-confidence-map-2/“The Confidence Map” on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Confidence-Map-Charting-Chaos-Clarity/dp/0593539559#:~:text=The%20Confidence%20Map%20is%20a,that%20too%20often%20feels%20senseless.____Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(00:38) Blue Sky Optimism Has Gripped The Stock Market(06:13) The Bubble Can ALWAYS Get Bigger(15:56) Sentiment On Recession Has Changed Massively(21:28) The Confidence Map(33:00) Passive Investing(39:09) Finding Extreme Sentiments In Markets(43:04) U.S. Banking System(45:46) The K-Shaped Recovery, 3 Years Later(57:04) Psychology Of The Federal Reserve(01:01:14) Commercial Real Estate (CRE)--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Rory Johnston, oil buff and founder of CommodityContext.com, returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he is now “cautiously bullish” on the price of oil because of Saudi Arabia’s significant cuts to its production quota. He also shares in details his reading of crack spreads, crude differentials, speculative positioning, and shape of futures curve. Filmed on July 12th, 2023.____Follow Rory Johnston on Twitter https://twitter.com/Rory_JohnstonFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Johnston’s latest Substacks on Commodity Context:https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/b93afa41-17dc-4d6e-9e75-ea9ca7da95f9https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/120157df-fe5d-45b5-b19a-ed3a8bab88f7https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/b93afa41-17dc-4d6e-9e75-ea9ca7da95f9____Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(00:21) An "Exhausting" Oil Market(02:59) The Cautious Bull Case For Oil(11:28) OPEC Cuts Can Support Higher Oil Prices(24:20) Has The Chinese Re-Opening Been A Flop?(31:36) Guyana(34:22) Deconstructing The "Capital Discipline" Narrative About Oil Companies(49:13) The Russian Supply Question(54:55) Price Cap(59:02) Differentials Between Different Types Of Crude Oil(01:03:10) The Washout Of The Way-Too-Long Oil Bulls(01:09:02) Futures Curve(01:15:07) Recession Risk____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass, returns to Forward Guidance to discuss why there's no U.S. recession as of yet, how long is the lag of rate hikes' effect on the economy, and why bonds haven't performed well despite a rapid fall in inflation. Jack and Alfonso debate whether central banks print money, and Alfonso poses a spirited challenge to the predictive power of liquidity (bank reserves) on risk assets. Filmed on July 12, 2023.Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlfFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_The Macro Compass: https://t.co/zmbDLZ99iN--Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissio...--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--(00:00) Introduction(00:20) The Recession That Didn't Show Up(11:35) How Big Is The Tightening of Credit Availability?(20:15) Is Quantitive Easing (QE) "Money Printing"? Jack & Alf Debate(29:45) Money Printing Type #1: Fiscal Deficits(38:47) Money Printing Type #2: Bank Lending(46:53) Money Printing Type #3: Non-Bank Lending(49:20) Can "Liquidity" Explain Market Returns? Alf Says No!(01:00:43) Why Haven't Bonds Performed As Inflation Has Fallen?(01:06:34) When Recession?—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode Michael Robbins, CIO of Larson Financial & Professor Of Quantitative Investing at Columbia University joins the show for a discussion on the quantitative investing strategy.Authoring the book "Factor Investing and Machine Learning for Institutional Investing" Michael takes us back to the very basics in answering what is quantitive investing, what actually causes markets to go up, why most investors are NOT stock pickers and how a quantitive strategy can help manage risk & create sizeable returns. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Referenced In The Show:Selling Fast and Buying Slow: Heuristics and Trading Performance of Institutional Investors: https://www.nber.org/papers/w29076Quantitative Asset Management: Factor Investing and Machine Learning for Institutional Investing: http://quantitativeassetmanagement.com/--Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissio...Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(00:39) What Is Quantitative Investing?(02:24) Selling Fast & Buying Slow(05:26) What Causes Stocks To Go Up?(09:02) Are Rising Rates Actually Bad For Stocks?(15:11) Stock vs Bond Arbitrage Strategies(17:37) The VXX ETF(24:11) Most People Are NOT Stock Pickers(29:54) Risk Management(35:14) What Are The Biggest Mistakes Investors Make?(44:31) Being Early Is The Same As Being Wrong(49:37) What Indicators Are Worth Following With A Quantitative Strategy?(56:41) Liquidity(01:00:07) The Five Factors Of Investing(01:05:55) Investing Using Artificial Intelligence--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Steven Kelly, Associate Director of Research at the Yale Program on Financial Stability, returns to Forward Guidance to update Jack on the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming plans to increase capital requirements for U.S. banks. Filmed on July 11, 2023.____Follow Steven Kelly on Twitter https://twitter.com/StevenKelly49Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Kelly’s latest “Without Warning” Substack: https://www.withoutwarningresearch.com/p/the-macro-story-of-svb-isnt-just____Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(02:45) Bank Capital Ratios, Explained(18:52) Busting Myths About Banks' Interest Rate Hedging(38:15) Accounting For Unrealized Losses(46:56) How Much Money Is Leaving the Banking System?(54:16) U.S. Banking System Is "Stable But More Fragile"(01:02:47) The Basel III Endgame(01:05:54) Interest Rates And Financial Stability____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Vítor Constâncio witnessed firsthand severe recessions, inflationary bouts, and a global financial crisis, as former Vice President of the European Central Bank (ECB) (2010 to 2018) and Governor of The Bank of Portugal (1985-1986, 2000-2010). He brings this considerable experience to examine the current challenges facing central bankers at the ECB as well as the Fed.Constâncio argues that while U.S. inflation is driven by a strong demand generated by loose fiscal policy, the primary agent of European inflation was the surge in energy prices in 2022. However, he recognizes that what began as supply-side pressure has broadened out to other sectors of the Euro area economy, so the ECB’s hiking of interest rates to 4% was necessary. Constancio expects that a mild recession in Europe will tame inflation and that substantial further rate hikes from the ECB will likely not be needed. Filmed on July 6, 2023.____Follow Vítor Constâncio on Twitter https://twitter.com/VMRConstancioFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(00:48) Euro Area Inflation Is Mostly Due To Energy Shock, Not Demand(08:13) I Would Support A Pause In Interest Rate Hikes, Says Constancio(10:11) Recession In Europe Is Likely For 2023(14:35) ECB Unlikely To Cut Interest Rates During A Mild Recession(16:20) There Pressure on The European Central Bank (ECB) To Follow The Federal Reserve?(20:44) Exploring The Logic Of Negative Interest Rates(25:29) Interest Rates' Impact On The Economy(32:04) Fixed vs. Floating Mortgages(34:48) ECB's Reaction Function During The 2008 Great Financial Crisis(44:16) Recent Bank Failures (Silicon Valley Bank)(49:51) Credit Suisse(51:51) Basel III Regulation of Held-To-Matuity Accounts and Interest Rate Hedging(54:47) Fighting Inflation In 1970s Portugal____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode of Forward Guidance Jay Shabat Senior Analyst at Skift & Author of both Airline Weekly & Railroad Weekly joins the show for a discussion on the state of the Airline & Railroad industries in 2023.After the pandemic shock of 2020, Jay walks through how the ensuing 3 years have shaped the industries stating that airline demand continues surging, but freight demand is painting a different picture. Does airline & railroad demand give a useful insight into the health of the U.S economy? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Follow Airline Weekly: https://airlineweekly.com/Follow Railroad Weekly: https://railroadweekly.substack.com/--Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissio...Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(00:52) The State Of Airlines In 2023(03:09) How The Pandemic Impacted The Airline Industry(10:32) We're Not Seeing An Economic Slowdown Yet(20:40) International Travel(25:06) Why Airlines Aren't A Great Business(29:15) The Airline Industry Would Have Gone Bankrupt If Not For Government Assistance(36:20) The State Of Freight In 2023(51:44) Consolidation In The Freight Industry(57:40) What Can Freight Tell Us About The U.S Economy?(01:10:02) How Do Airlines Hedge?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.