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Forward Guidance

The World’s Greatest Carry Trade May About To Be Unwound | Nicholas Glinsman

Nov 21, 2023
01:10:35
Snipd AI
Nicholas Glinsman, veteran macro investor and co-founder at Malmgren-Glinsman Partners, discusses the potential unwinding of the "greatest carry trade in the world," shorting the yen and buying non-yen-denominated assets. He explains the implications of the Bank of Japan moving away from yield curve control and potentially raising interest rates. Other topics include the U.S. election, European sovereign debt crisis, and the impact of sustained inflation on the yen.
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Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The "greatest carry trade in the world," shorting the yen and buying non-yen-denominated assets, may be unwound as the Bank of Japan changes its yield curve control and potentially raises interest rates, with massive implications for global markets.
  • The Federal Reserve is likely to stay behind the curve and avoid cutting rates too early, in order to prevent a similar situation to the high inflation caused by the Arthur Burns Fed.

Deep dives

The US Treasury market may return to 4.5-5.5% yields

The summary indicates that the US Treasury market is currently pressed for perfection, but the author believes that perfection has not been reached. They predict that the market will return to 4.5-5.5% yields. Factors such as easing financial conditions and upcoming fiscal announcements contribute to this prediction.

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