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Aidan Garrib, Global Macro Strategy & Research at PGM Global, takes a deep dive into the Chinese economy, discussing shadow debt, the government's crackdown on credit, and his outlook for Chinese equities. The podcast also covers the recent bond market sell-off in the U.S. and potential recessionary headwinds.
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Quick takeaways
- China is diversifying its economy by implementing a credit crackdown and redirecting credit growth from real estate to high-growth sectors like industrial robotics and infrastructure development.
- China aims to globalize the Renminbi without replacing the US dollar as the global reserve currency by increasing its use in commodity trade and improving infrastructure for international transactions.
Deep dives
China's Economy and Growth Plans
The Chinese economy is often misunderstood by Western investors. China's policymakers have been reallocating capital and focusing on higher value-added, consumption-driven growth rather than solely relying on the reopening trade. The structural features of China's economy, such as a declining working-age population, have influenced this shift in strategy.
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