Forward Guidance
Blockworks
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBWFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceForward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
Episodes
Mentioned books
9 snips
Oct 22, 2024 • 1h 3min
Breaking Down The Current Business Cycle | Eric Basmajian
Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Research and an expert in macroeconomic forecasting, dives into the intricate world of the business cycle. He reveals how the cyclical economy affects everything from GDP numbers to the housing sector. The discussion explores labor market dynamics, emphasizing jobless claims and the gig economy's impact. Basmajian unpacks the complexities of non-farm payrolls and revisions, while also tackling the Federal Reserve's neutral rate and its implications for monetary policy.
Oct 19, 2024 • 55min
Debating The Election’s Impact On Markets | Weekly Roundup
This week’s discussion centers on how elections and Trump may shape market dynamics. Key topics include the gold bull market, the outlook for Bitcoin, and expectations around Fed rate cuts. The hosts explore the effects of political outcomes on economic growth and delve into the strength of the dollar amid changing interest rates. They also challenge traditional economic narratives, highlighting resilience among the bottom 50% of wealth holders. Plus, a thought-provoking look at AI's impact on society adds an intriguing dimension to the conversation.
Oct 16, 2024 • 45min
The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer
In this discussion, Tony Greer, a veteran trader and founder of The Morning Navigator, shares his insights on the current dynamics of equities and commodities. He emphasizes the resilience of various market sectors and the bullish outlook on stocks amid macroeconomic shifts. The conversation takes a deep dive into the potential impacts of a Trump reelection and strategies for navigating market volatility. Greer also highlights the emerging opportunities in the gold and energy markets influenced by geopolitical tensions and currency trends.
10 snips
Oct 12, 2024 • 41min
What is Macro Telling Us? | Weekly Roundup
This week, the discussion dives into the latest inflation and labor market data, uncovering the complexities of job creation and the impact of strikes. Coordinated central banking trends are analyzed, revealing potential effects on crypto and risk assets. The podcast also explores generational economic disparities and the rising discontent among younger demographics. As political events loom, insights on Bitcoin and Ethereum alongside interest rate dynamics highlight the ever-evolving landscape of digital assets. Get ready for a macro outlook that's anything but dull!
4 snips
Oct 9, 2024 • 54min
LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream
Jonah Van Borg, a seasoned trader with nearly two decades of experience, and Avi Feldman, a crypto expert since 2017, join Felix to tackle pressing financial topics. They discuss the intricate relationship between macroeconomic trends and the cryptocurrency market. Jonah and Avi analyze Bitcoin's potential as protection against volatile economies, the risks to the Fed's credibility, and the growing wealth disparity fueled by market speculation. Their insights on regulatory uncertainties and the current bifurcation in the economy provide a thought-provoking perspective on future investments.
6 snips
Oct 5, 2024 • 57min
Stellar Jobs Report Sends Recession Odds Spiraling | Weekly Roundup
The latest jobs report reveals strong employment growth, igniting discussions around recession risks and monetary policy shifts. Global coordinated easing is boosting growth, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are swaying oil prices and market sentiments. There's excitement around the SOFR explosion and its implications for credit markets. Additionally, uncertainty around upcoming elections is creating ripples in market pricing, leading to intriguing insights on investment strategies and market health.
Oct 2, 2024 • 50min
Where The Next Big Bond Trade Is Hiding | Harley Bassman
Harley Bassman, a renowned financial expert in the bond market, shares his insights on current economic conditions. He discusses what the bond market is signaling about a potential recession and the Fed's strategies. The conversation reveals the nuances of the MBS market and the connection between immigration policies and labor market dynamics. Bassman also analyzes credit spreads and the implications for investors, providing a captivating look at the ever-evolving landscape of finance.
5 snips
Sep 27, 2024 • 47min
China's Liquidity Impulse, A Turning Point For Markets | Weekly Roundup
The podcast dives into China's economic stimulus efforts as it navigates a balance sheet recession, contrasting it with the U.S. recovery. It explores the dynamics of the oil market and the evolving labor market, questioning consumer sentiment amidst recession fears. Key discussions highlight GDP and GDI relationships, alongside the implications of central bank policies. The conversation wraps up with insights on market resilience and optimism about global liquidity, considering risks linked to high equity valuations and the rise of digital assets.
24 snips
Sep 24, 2024 • 58min
Slowing But Growing: Why The U.S. Isn’t Headed For Recession | Prometheus Research
Explore the macro framework that challenges traditional views on GDP and economic health. Delve into the manufacturing sector's struggles versus strong consumer spending, suggesting stagnation over recession. Assess nuanced labor market indicators that complicate recession predictions. Examine current inflation drivers and liquidity impacts on risk-taking post-financial crisis. Wrap up with strategies for portfolio allocation amidst a cooling economy and evolving market dynamics. It's an engaging analysis of the U.S. economic landscape!
4 snips
Sep 24, 2024 • 1h 3min
What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup
Jack Farley, the insightful host of the Monetary Matters podcast, joins the discussion to unpack the latest Federal Reserve decisions and their impacts on the markets. They explore bullish signals amidst recession fears, the complex interplay between interest rates and market volatility, and how investor sentiment is shifting. Farley also dives into private credit markets and innovative dynamics within energy sectors, including the rise of nuclear energy. Throughout, they tease the intriguing concept of the 'Banana Zone' in economics, leaving listeners hungry for more.
