Forward Guidance cover image

Forward Guidance

Latest episodes

undefined
Nov 16, 2023 • 1h 11min

Jason Shapiro: It’s Too Early To Get Long Bonds

Jason Shapiro, founder of Crowded Market Report, discusses his philosophy for trading markets. He believes stocks will outperform bonds based on positioning and sentiment. Topics include stock/bond correlation, gold and oil, narratives, investing vs. trading, banks and commercial real estate, correlations, Jason's long position in the Swiss Franc, and the role of stop losses.
undefined
Nov 13, 2023 • 1h 52min

George Robertson: The Fed Has No Control, There Will Be No Recession, and Fiscal Supremacy Will Drive Stocks To “Ponzi Stage”

George Robertson, an economic analyst, argues that the fiscal stimulus will lead to a continuous economic boom. He challenges common conceptions on the risk-free yield curve and the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The podcast covers topics such as the potential for a recession, the relationship between interest rates and new home constructions, the behavior of euro dollars, and the disconnection between S&P 500 earnings and reality.
undefined
Nov 10, 2023 • 1h 23min

The Massive Bond Short | “Recession Denier” Jonny Matthews (ex-Brevan Howard) On The Duration Bubble, Correlation Trades, and Variance Swaps

Jonny Matthews, ex-Brevan Howard portfolio manager, shares insights on shorting Treasury bonds, correlation trades, and variance swaps. He discusses the challenges of currency trading, the severe slowdown in Europe, and his view on the duration bubble and recession in the U.S.
undefined
Nov 9, 2023 • 1h 3min

Interest Rate Declines Will Bring Fated "Soft Landing," Says Earnings Maestro Sam Burns

In this podcast, Sam Burns, Founder of Mill Street Research, shares his insights on the current state of equities, including the housing market, banks, commercial real estate, healthcare, commodity sectors, and Chinese stocks. He also discusses equity momentum, disinflation, global manufacturing, trade downturn, fiscal tailwinds in the U.S., and the potential for a soft landing with declining interest rates.
undefined
Nov 6, 2023 • 55min

The Bond Market Sell-Off Was Duration, Not Credit Risk | Ben Santonelli

Ben Santonelli, Portfolio Manager at Polen Capital, discusses the state of the high yield bond market and where he finds the best opportunities as debt investors can generate equity type returns. Topics include default rates, investing in high quality businesses, loan demand, liquidity, credit spreads, credit performance during a recession, margin compression, and potential refinancing issues.
undefined
Nov 3, 2023 • 49min

Althea Spinozzi on Stagflation, Term Premia, and Ultra Long-Duration Bonds

Discussion on bear market in long-duration treasuries, foreign demand for US Treasuries and complications of hedging, hedging costs and yield curves, the state of US and European economies, and building a barbell portfolio with short and long maturities.
undefined
Nov 1, 2023 • 1h 8min

Michael Kao on November Fed Meeting, Treasury Refunding, and Bond Market Bear Steepening (Co-Hosted By Michael Ippolito & Jack Farley)

Former hedge fund manager and private investor, Michael Kao, joins the hosts to discuss topics such as the Treasury refunding announcement, bear steepening in the bond market, Federal Reserve's stance on rate hikes, analysis of closed-end funds, analyzing yield spreads in the high-yield market, and predictions for CPI and real rates.
undefined
Oct 30, 2023 • 1h 7min

“We’re In Uncharted Territory” | Warren Pies on Treasury Issuance, Housing Market, Oil, And Recession Risk

Warren Pies from 3Fourteen Research shares his views on bond supply, housing market, oil, and recession risk. He discusses the mortgage buydowns and their impact on homebuilders, predicts a recession in Q2 2024, talks about the relationship between interest rates, oil prices, and economic activity, and explores US government deficits and uncertainty.
undefined
Oct 29, 2023 • 50min

Does Historic Cheapness Of Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Indicate Funding Stress? Dave Goodson, Professor Jeremy Siegel, Jeremy Schwartz, and Jack Farley

Jeremy Siegel, Dave Goodson, Jeremy Schwartz, and Jack Farley discuss macro view on bonds, stocks, and economy, as well as analysis of securitized products including agency MBS, non-agency MBS, commercial MBS, and CLOs. They cover topics like impact of higher rates, tech company performance, attractiveness of bonds vs stocks, risks and opportunities in non-agency and MBS market, pricing of CLOs, risks in the CMBS market, and asset-backed securities market analysis.
undefined
Oct 27, 2023 • 53min

Sam Bankman-Fried Testifies At Last | Casey Wagner & Jack Farley On The Trial Of The Century

Entrepreneur and cryptocurrency exchange founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, testifies in a trial, rebutting allegations of financial crimes. Topics discussed include evidence destruction, defense strategy, misuse of funds on FTX, Sam's testimony, document retention policy, potential sentencing, and challenges of a jury in the trial.

Get the Snipd
podcast app

Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
App store bannerPlay store banner

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode

Save any
moment

Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways

Share
& Export

Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode