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Forward Guidance

Latest episodes

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Dec 21, 2023 • 1h 17min

Stablecoins Are The New Eurodollars | Daniel Neilson on Death Spirals, Liquidity Runs, and The Fragility of Par

Daniel Neilson, economics professor and author, compares stablecoins to Eurodollars and discusses liquidity, par settlement, and the fragility of stablecoins. They explore the role of forward markets in the crypto world, the solvency of Tether and USDC, and the challenges of creating liquid forward markets in the crypto space.
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Dec 19, 2023 • 1h 7min

Thomas Majewski on CLOs, Private Credit, and Bank Capital Relief Trades

Thomas Majewski, founder of Eagle Point Credit, discusses the advantages of Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs), private credit, and bank capital relief trades. Topics include CLO resilience in challenging times, impact of rising interest rates, liability structure of BDCs, and preference for CLO equity over senior tranches.
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Dec 12, 2023 • 56min

Kathy Jones: The Bull Case For Bonds, And The Need For “Caution” on Private Credit & Leveraged Loans

Kathy Jones, Chief Fixed Income Strategist at Schwab, discusses the bull case for bonds, caution on private credit & leveraged loans. Topics include the inverted yield curve, declining term premia, bond market tracking, bond supply's effect on price, the state of mortgage-backed securities, investment options beyond treasury strategy, and bond market sentiment.
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Dec 11, 2023 • 1h 30min

The Banking System Is Healing | Dan Siciliano & Michael Ericson

Dan Siciliano, Chair of the Council of FHLBs, and Michael Ericson, President of the Chicago Federal Home Loan Bank, discuss the current health of the banking system. They cover topics such as the collapse of SVB, how the FHLB operates, credit risk, the role of the FHLB vs the Fed, and bank credit worthiness. They also share lessons learned from the March bank panic and discuss Silvergate Bank and Silicon Valley Bank.
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Dec 7, 2023 • 1h 1min

Felix Zulauf: The End Of The Liquidity Cycle Approaches

Renowned macro investor Felix Zulauf predicts the end of the liquidity cycle in early 2024, leading to struggles for stocks and bonds. He warns about extreme positioning in the bond market and the potential decline of the US dollar. Zulauf discusses assessing sentiment in the stock market, the impact of interest rates, and the vulnerability of the market at the end of a rally. He also touches on digital assets, inflation predictions, and the significance of geopolitical risks including ongoing conflicts and the potential for World War III.
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Dec 4, 2023 • 1h 2min

Dr. Barry Eichengreen & Joseph Wang on Dollar Dominance, “Problematic” Levels of Government Debt, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), and Central Bank Digital Currencies

Dr. Barry Eichengreen and Joseph Wang discuss dollar dominance, problematic government debt levels, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). They explore the challenges faced by emerging markets, the reasons behind the US dollar's dominance as a global reserve currency, and the potential future of dollar dominance. They also touch upon political polarization and government debt levels, the impact of artificial intelligence on productivity, and China's economic slowdown.
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Dec 1, 2023 • 1h 48min

Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg

Anthony Dilweg, veteran real estate investor, discusses the challenges facing commercial real estate, particularly office spaces. He predicts over a billion square footage of U.S. office space will be obsolete. However, he also highlights investment opportunities for well capitalized players in the market distress. The podcast covers topics such as the parallels between football and real estate, the impact of remote work trends, the difficulties in valuing real estate assets, and the potential economic consequences of a commercial real estate meltdown.
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Nov 29, 2023 • 1h 21min

Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact

Geopolitical analyst Marko Papic discusses the Russia-Ukraine war, highlighting its limited market impact. He also believes the Israel-Hamas conflict will be contained. The podcast explores gold's recent rally and the shift away from the US dollar. Papic delves into China's global ambitions and predicts a buying opportunity in China. The upcoming US presidential election and its potential consequences are also discussed.
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Nov 24, 2023 • 1h 10min

Jens Nordvig: Interest Rates Have Peaked, The U.S. Dollar Is Overvalued

Jens Nordvig, founder of Exante Data and Marketreader Inc., discusses the potential decrease in interest rates, the depreciation of the US dollar against 'risk-off' currencies, and the correlation between US interest rates, the dollar, and global growth. He also explores the unique characteristics of the US dollar and its impact on currency valuation, as well as the tactical shorting of the dollar and the long-term outlook for interest rates. The episode also touches on the upcoming Digital Asset Summit in London and the intersection of macroeconomics and crypto.
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Nov 21, 2023 • 1h 11min

The World’s Greatest Carry Trade May About To Be Unwound | Nicholas Glinsman

Nicholas Glinsman, veteran macro investor and co-founder at Malmgren-Glinsman Partners, discusses the potential unwinding of the "greatest carry trade in the world," shorting the yen and buying non-yen-denominated assets. He explains the implications of the Bank of Japan moving away from yield curve control and potentially raising interest rates. Other topics include the U.S. election, European sovereign debt crisis, and the impact of sustained inflation on the yen.

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