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Forward Guidance
How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI)
Jul 23, 2024
Economist Nouriel Roubini & financial analyst Stephen Miran discuss 'Activist Treasury Issuance', its impact on asset values, avoiding a recession, and potential divergence from the Fed's policy. They delve into the history of Treasury's policies and the implications of unconventional fiscal policy.
01:16:22
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Quick takeaways
- Activist Treasury Issuance (ATI) reshapes monetary policy dynamics by deviating from traditional issuance guidelines.
- ATI functionally resembles quantitative easing (QE) in manipulating interest rate risk through altering Treasury issuance structure.
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The Impact of Activist Treasury Issuance on Monetary Policy
Activist Treasury issuance, referred to as ATI, has been reshaping monetary policy dynamics in the US by altering the balance between short-term bills and longer-term debt issuance by the Treasury. By deviating from traditional guidelines of issuing bills, ATI resembles a backdoor form of quantitative easing, pushing long-term treasury prices higher and yields lower. The Treasury's unconventional fiscal intervention through ATI is estimated to be equivalent to a notable policy rate cut by the Federal Reserve, impacting economic growth, inflation rates, and financial conditions.
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