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New paper published by Hudson Bay Capital, written by Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran, “ATI: Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy”:
https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/635102_Activist_Treasury_Issuance_-_Hudson_Bay_Capital_Research.pdf
Nouriel Roubini’s book discussed in the interview, “Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy”: https://www.amazon.com/Political-Cycles-Macroeconomy-Alberto-Alesina/dp/0262510944
Nouriel Roubini’s latest book, “Megathreats”: https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/nouriel-roubini/megathreats/9780316284059/?lens=little-brown
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:18) What Is "Activist Treasury Issuance" (ATI)?
(08:00) The Mechanics Of How The U.S. Treasury Has Altered Engaged In "Activist Treasury Issuance"
(20:52) VanEck Ad
(24:21) Activist Treasury Issuance Played A Role In Boosting Asset Values, And In Avoiding A Recession (And Might Have Caused A "No Landing" Instead of a "Soft Landing")
(29:53) History of Treasury's "Bill Share": GFC, Money Market Reform, March 2020 Panic
(33:44) How Much Does Current Treasury Issuance Differ From Historical Issuance Patterns?
(45:43) Permissionless Ad
(46:46) Does Government Borrowing "Crowd Out" Private Investment?
(59:09) Will ATI Continue In The Next Presidential Administration?
(01:07:20) Long-Term Interest Rates Could Rise and Force a "Meaningful Repricing of Risk Assets"
(01:10:49) It's Not Just The Fed - U.S. Treasury Has "Forward Guidance" Now Too
(01:13:02) Nouriel Roubini's Closing Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
