Forward Guidance
Blockworks
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBWFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceForward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
Episodes
Mentioned books
32 snips
Feb 5, 2025 • 49min
The U.S. Job Market Is On The Brink | Danielle DiMartino Booth
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and expert on the US economy, shares her insights on the precarious state of the U.S. job market. She discusses the impact of tariffs on employment and the gig economy, navigating the complexities of inflation and labor dynamics. DiMartino Booth addresses the risks involved with government stimulus and its influence on job stability. She also explores the Federal Reserve's evolving policies, the interconnectedness of economic indicators, and the political pressures affecting monetary decisions.
30 snips
Feb 4, 2025 • 60min
Trading Crypto's Weekend Meltdown | 1000x
This week, the discussion dives into crypto's drastic liquidation event, analyzing why altcoins are struggling while Bitcoin stands tall. They introduce a unique strategy called 'inverse alt season' focused on short-selling amidst a bear market. Geopolitical tensions and trade wars also shape the conversation, affecting the future of cryptocurrencies as alternatives to fiat. Insights into navigating market dynamics, liquidity, and the evolving role of decentralized currencies add depth to this intriguing exploration of the crypto landscape.
8 snips
Jan 31, 2025 • 56min
Positioning For Trump's Policy Flip Flops | Weekly Roundup
Andrew Stein, a Partner at Lecker and head of research with a focus on unique investments, shares fascinating insights on market dynamics. They discuss the Fed's inflation strategy and its ripple effects on the economy. The conversation dives into Trump's fluctuating economic policies and their impact on market sentiment. Stein offers a bullish perspective on Lyft's investment potential, emphasizing growth strategies and market positioning. Additionally, they explore Bitcoin's volatility and the importance of patience in navigating the shifting landscape.
37 snips
Jan 29, 2025 • 54min
What DeepSeek Means For Markets & The The Future Of AI | Alex Campbell
Alex Campbell, former head of commodities at Bridgewater and founder of Rose AI, dives into the market implications of China's DeepSeek AI model. He discusses the geopolitical dynamics of AI, especially between the U.S. and China, and the crucial role Taiwan plays in the chip supply chain. Campbell also tackles the challenges businesses face when integrating AI and the tension between productivity gains and employment loss. He explores the debate between open-source and proprietary AI models, highlighting the socioeconomic shifts they create.
28 snips
Jan 24, 2025 • 49min
Trump Vs The Fed: The Battle Over Rates, Growth, & Inflation | Weekly Roundup
This week features Capital Flows, a financial markets expert known for his keen insights into macroeconomic trends. The discussion revolves around Trump's executive orders and their potential impact on inflation and market reactions. They explore the intricacies of the yield curve and warning signs for equities, while also examining recent trends in inflation and interest rates. The conversation emphasizes the significance of careful market positioning amid shifting economic indicators and the implications of changes in the Federal Open Market Committee's dynamics.
49 snips
Jan 22, 2025 • 58min
Why FX Volatility Will Dominate Markets In 2025 | Brent Donnelly
Brent Donnelly, a seasoned expert in foreign exchange markets, shares his insights on FX volatility that could dominate in 2025. He discusses how tariffs from Mexico and Canada might influence the currency landscape and the interplay between inflation and Federal Reserve policies. Donnelly also breaks down his framework for currency trading, highlighting the significance of interest rate differentials. The conversation includes a deep dive into the dynamics of carry trades, particularly the yen carry trade, and the broader implications for global markets.
23 snips
Jan 17, 2025 • 47min
CPI, Yields, & The Growth Debate | Weekly Roundup
This week, the discussion dives into the latest CPI data and its influence on market trends. The hosts analyze economic indicators, highlighting contrasting inflation patterns between goods and services. They explore the evolving credit cycle and the potential impact of a Bank of Japan rate hike. The conversation also touches on shifts in market sentiment, with a focus on the rotation from large-cap to equal-weight indices and implications for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. A lively debate on trading strategies for Inauguration Day adds an intriguing twist!
38 snips
Jan 15, 2025 • 59min
What A Growth Scare Means For The Fed & Markets | Warren Pies
Warren Pies, Founder of 314 Research, provides his insights on macro investing and monetary policy. He discusses his outlook for 2025 and the current state of the housing market, emphasizing inflation fears as overblown. The conversation shifts to equity market valuations, critiquing S&P 500 assessments amidst rising bond yields. Pies also explores the Fed's decisions on interest rates and the delicate balance between unemployment and inflation. His thoughts reveal a complex landscape for both growth and value stocks.
29 snips
Jan 10, 2025 • 1h 14min
Global Yields Nearing A Breaking Point | Weekly Roundup
This week delves into the encroaching growth scare and how the dollar is triggering a global margin call. Discussions spotlight global yields nearing a breaking point and the housing affordability crisis plaguing many. The challenges of public spending and strong job reports provide a backdrop to navigating current economic uncertainties. Impact on the housing market from rising yields is examined, raising concerns over homeownership amidst skyrocketing mortgage rates.
69 snips
Jan 8, 2025 • 42min
FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann
Joe McCann, Founder and CEO of Asymmetric Fund, discusses the intersection of macroeconomics and crypto. He shares his tactical bearish outlook on risk assets and analyzes the ongoing dollar rally. The conversation dives into Bitcoin's resilience against dollar fluctuations and the potential for a strategic Bitcoin reserve. McCann also presents his crypto shopping list and highlights key investment opportunities for 2025, stressing the need for adaptive financial strategies in a shifting economic landscape.
