Forward Guidance
Blockworks
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBWFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceForward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
Episodes
Mentioned books
38 snips
Sep 13, 2024 • 1h 7min
Richard Koo: China’s “Balance Sheet Recession” Has Already Started | (Jack’s Final Episode)
Richard Koo, a senior advisor at CSIS and chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, is a pioneer of the balance sheet recession concept. He discusses China's current economic turmoil, asserting that its balance sheet recession has already begun. Koo explains the shift from profit maximization to debt repayment, highlighting the implications for corporate behavior. He contrasts China's trade surplus challenges with historical insights from Japan and Korea, emphasizing the importance of effective fiscal policy to navigate these turbulent economic times.
Sep 12, 2024 • 1h 28min
CDO Whisperer Brett Jefferson on Securitization Markets and TruPS CDO Relics
Brett Jefferson, a leading expert in securitization and trust preferred CDOs, shares insights on niche investment opportunities in the podcast. He discusses the intricacies of trust preferred CDOs, particularly their role during economic downturns and how his fund capitalizes on inefficiencies in the market. Jefferson also delves into the dynamics of private credit, the risks of collateralized loan obligations, and the impact of regulatory changes since the 2008 financial crisis, offering a unique perspective on the evolving landscape of structured finance.
18 snips
Sep 11, 2024 • 1h 21min
Structured Credit Maven Laila Kollmorgen on CLO’s Rally and Opportunity To Differentiate As Fundamentals Soften and Prices Climb | VanEck Fireside Chat #6
Laila Kollmorgen, a Portfolio Manager specializing in CLO Tranche at Pinebridge Investments, shares insights on the booming market for collateralized loan obligations (CLOs). She discusses their appealing structure and how they outperformed during recent market turmoil. The conversation delves into the selective investment opportunities arising as credit fundamentals soften and prices rise. Laila also compares CLOs to CDOs, emphasizing their resilience in the face of past financial crises and the critical factors in making informed investment decisions.
8 snips
Sep 10, 2024 • 1h 22min
Bitcoin's Path To $3 Million Dollars | Matthew Sigel
Matthew Sigel, a leading voice in digital assets research at VanEck, offers compelling insights into Bitcoin's future as a reserve asset. He discusses its potential to reach $3 million and the growing importance of Bitcoin among younger demographics. The conversation touches on miners adapting to new technologies, including AI, and their financial implications. Sigel also dives into regulatory challenges and the emergence of stablecoins, painting a vivid picture of Bitcoin's evolving role in the global economy.
5 snips
Sep 6, 2024 • 1h 7min
Gold Stocks Are Undervalued | Imaru Casanova (VanEck Fireside Chat #4)
Imaru Casanova, a Portfolio Manager specializing in Gold and Precious Metals at VanEck, discusses the undervaluation of gold stocks amidst rising gold prices. She highlights the importance of cash flow over earnings in mining evaluations and emphasizes common mistakes investors make. Casanova also delves into the effects of jurisdiction on mining company valuations and the unique strategies of royalty companies. The conversation uncovers both opportunities and risks in the dynamic gold market, making it a critical listen for investors.
8 snips
Sep 5, 2024 • 1h 23min
There Will Be No Recession | Jonny Mathews
Jonny Mathews, a veteran macro trader and partner at Brevin Howard, dives into why he believes a recession isn't looming. He argues that real consumption is set to boost GDP in Q3 while unemployment is expected to stabilize. Mathews shares insights on market opportunities, the dynamics of fixed income, and the importance of household savings. He also touches on trading strategies, particularly the outlook for gold and the impact of AI on productivity, all with a sense of cautious optimism for the future.
Sep 5, 2024 • 2h 4min
The Labor Market Is Cooling | Talmon Smith & Jack Farley (Driving Back from Camp Kotok)
Talmon Smith, a New York Times contributor and economic analyst, teams up with financial journalist Jack Farley, to explore the cooling labor market. They discuss the implications of interest rates on hiring and the concept of a soft landing for the economy. The duo dives into modern monetary theory (MMT), dissecting its role in government finance. They also analyze the challenges faced by first-time home buyers and the dynamics of private credit in today's economic landscape.
8 snips
Aug 29, 2024 • 1h 17min
India Is The Most Promising Emerging Market | Angus Shillington
Angus Shillington, an emerging markets investment expert, sheds light on India's standout potential as the most promising emerging market. He discusses how India's demographic advantages contribute to its growth and why it has outperformed the S&P 500. The conversation dives into the risks associated with Chinese investments, particularly due to regulatory issues. Shillington also highlights the booming semiconductor market and contrasts the stability of Indian equities with the volatility in China, making a compelling case for strategic investment in India.
4 snips
Aug 27, 2024 • 30min
Markets Will Get A Deficit President No Matter What | Jim Bianco & Jeremy Schwartz
In this insightful discussion, Jim Bianco, a financial markets expert, and Jeremy Schwartz, an investment strategist, tackle key issues affecting today’s economy. They explore the Federal Reserve’s policy and its potential impact on inflation, as well as the concept of a neutral interest rate. The duo delves into the significance of market deficits and political electoral shifts, emphasizing their implications for stock and bond performance. The conversation is packed with analysis on how these factors may shape future investment strategies.
20 snips
Aug 26, 2024 • 1h 17min
Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession
Michael Drury, an economic expert, dives into the intricate relationship between China's challenges and the global economy. He reveals how China's trillion-dollar surplus is influencing global markets and discusses its opaque investment strategies. Drury argues that the U.S. economy is more resilient than perceived and why he believes a recession isn't imminent. The conversation also touches on inflation dynamics, the complexities of international trade, and suggests that understanding these factors is crucial for navigating future economic uncertainties.
