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Forward Guidance

Latest episodes

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Jan 16, 2024 • 1h 39min

Andy Verity on LIE-BOR: Shocking New Evidence Suggest Interest Rate Scandal Is Much, Much, Bigger Than Originally Reported

Andy Verity, Economics Correspondent for BBC News, discusses revelations from his book on the LIBOR scandal. The interview includes recordings of whistleblower Peter Johnson, highlighting widespread underreporting of borrowing costs. Verity argues that central bankers and bank CEOs encouraged the rigging. The podcast explores manipulation of LIBOR rates, involvement of higher-ups, government interference, and the lack of accountability. It also discusses the relationship between the justice system and politics, the unpredictable future of interest rates, and the challenges of predicting risks.
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Jan 14, 2024 • 1h 22min

Kevin Muir: The Market Has Priced In Too Many Fed Cuts Since Government Money Printing Will Keep Nominal Growth High

Kevin Muir, veteran trader and publisher of The Macro Tourist newsletter, discusses the U.S. fiscal deficit, buy-write ETFs, and reasons why he is bullish on inflation breakevens and Japanese equities. He believes inflation surprises will be consistently to the upside and talks about his excitement for Harley Bassman’s new mortgage ETF.
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Jan 13, 2024 • 1h 59min

Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening

Paul Hodges, consultant and publisher of The pH Report, discusses the overcapacity in the chemical industry, low prices indicating weakened demand, the possibility of a soft landing in the US economy, the risks of overcapacity and debt crises in Asia, and China's potential money distribution impacting the global economy. Hodges also explores the impact of subprime mortgages on demand, concerns about the stock market rally and political risk, fluctuations in interest rates, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, and the value of strong point of view in research reports.
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Jan 11, 2024 • 1h 3min

Danielle DiMartino Booth & George Goncalves on The 2024 Fed Pivot: Recession or Soft Landing?

Danielle DiMartino Booth and George Goncalves discuss the 2024 Fed pivot, analyzing the potential for a recession or soft landing. They delve into topics such as the decrease in inflation, increase in real income growth, and the challenges faced by the Fed in managing the economy. They also explore revisions to non-farm payrolls data, the Digital Asset Summit London conference, credit performance, and the Federal Reserve's holdings and interest rate predictions.
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Jan 8, 2024 • 1h 4min

Joseph Wang: Bonds Will Be Crushed By Stocks As Fiscal Deficits Reignite Inflation

Former Fed trader Joseph Wang discusses his outlook for 2024, including his stock market "crack up boom" thesis and the rise of fiscal dominance. They also dive into the Fed's QT program, the reverse repo outlook, and the impact of broader financial plumbing on markets.
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Jan 5, 2024 • 1h 13min

Hari Krishnan on Commodity Tail Hedging, Weather Volatility, And “Disaster” VIX Trades

Hari Krishnan, head of volatility strategies at SCT Capital Management, discusses his research on commodities, weather volatility, and the relationship between implied and realized volatility. They explore finding upside convexity in commodity options, the structural bull case for commodities, and the challenges of predicting weather compared to the stock market. They also examine the correlation between volatility and stock prices, the impact of interest rates on various markets, and the liquidity of futures contracts.
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Jan 4, 2024 • 1h 7min

Dispatches From India | Andrei Stetsenko, Partner at Farley Capital

Andrei Stetsenko, Partner at Farley Capital, shares insights on investing in India's high-growth, high-quality companies. He discusses India's favorable demographics, accelerating urbanization, and growing infrastructure. Stetsenko highlights the common mistake of short-term thinking in investing and shares thoughts on payments, banking, and airlines industries. He also addresses the valuation differences between India and the U.S. stock markets.
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Jan 2, 2024 • 49min

Carson Block: “Perfect Macro Storm” To Hit Blackstone Mortgage Trust

Carson Block discusses the risks associated with Blackstone Mortgage Trust and the potential impact on the company's dividend and loan book due to a 'perfect macro storm'. He highlights that 73% of the CLO borrowers aren't covering interest expenses, and 27% can't pay the risk free rate. Block predicts a liquidity crisis due to expiring rate swaps and challenges in refinancing loans. Blackstone Mortgage Trust is facing potential liquidity problems and deterioration of assets.
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Dec 30, 2023 • 48min

The Stock Market Is Due For A Correction (And So Is Private Equity) | Jared Dillian

The speaker discusses their bearish outlook on the stock market and private equity, highlighting high levels of bullish sentiment. They explore the challenges of short selling Blackstone and discuss the risks associated with private equity. The chapter also delves into the speaker's bearish outlook on stocks and private equity, as well as their predictions for further decline in rates on the yield curve. Additionally, they share their bearish stance on the stock market, their oil outlook, and promote an upcoming conference. They explore the concept of dollar cost averaging and index funds. The chapter also discusses the psychology behind people's financial decisions and the importance of sizing trades appropriately.
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Dec 25, 2023 • 1h 28min

Carolyn Sissoko & Joseph Wang on the Fed Pivot and “Too Big To Fail” In Private Equity & Leveraged Loans

Carolyn Sissoko and Joseph Wang discuss the Fed's potential interest rate cuts in 2024, the collateral supply effect, and the merging of credit allocation facilities and money markets. They also touch on the rise of "Too Big To Fail," the separation of bank lending and money markets, central bank digital currencies, and the impact of the Fed's interest rate hikes on the financial system. Finally, they analyze the gamble in private equity and leveraged loans and discuss the outlook for stocks.

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