Forward Guidance

This week, we discuss the Trump trade shakeout, whether fear and volatility are presenting great buying opportunities, and the bond market after February’s NFP. We also delve into the outlook for the oil market, the subsectors Tony’s watching, destructive Bitcoin thinking and more. Enjoy!—Follow Tony: https://x.com/TgMacroFollow Quinn: https://x.com/qthompFollow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceForward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx—Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1j8QLpaGApqV5sOpojjcRKCilxnOcrF7M/view?usp=sharing—Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125—Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission!https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york—Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.—Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(02:43) Bitcoin and Crypto Market(07:17) Equities and Recession Narratives(14:14) Ledger Ad(14:59) European Market Outlook(18:59) Thoughts on Buying the Dip(27:32) Ledger Ad(28:18) Bond Market and NFP(32:28) Oil Market Outlook(37:51) Equity Subsectors(40:10) Trading Strategies and Market Sentiment(43:52) Crypto Market Advice(48:45) Sectors that Will Lead Us Higher(51:37) Maintaining Emotional Composure in Trading(54:15) Learn More About Tony & Collab Plans—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Mohamed El-Erian, President of Queens College, Cambridge, shares his insights on the precarious economic landscape. He discusses the February jobs report, highlighting rising unemployment and the looming threat of stagflation. The conversation shifts to inflation trends, particularly in goods versus services, and the impact of tariffs on the economy. El-Erian also analyzes global dynamics, contrasting Europe’s unexpected growth with challenges in China and Japan. Finally, he explores Bitcoin's role in the macroeconomic scene, considering its potential as a digital asset.

Jeff deGraaf, founder of Renaissance Macro Research with over 35 years of market insight, discusses why he believes a recession is unlikely. He breaks down the current market regime and explores the resilience of various S&P sectors amid economic uncertainties. Jeff compares U.S. markets to those in Europe and China, examines the outlook for yields, credit spreads, and offers perspectives on both gold and Bitcoin. His analysis highlights the investment landscape for 2025, focusing on how policy uncertainty impacts market reactions.

Jim Carson, a macro investor known for his expertise in stagflation and market dynamics, joins the discussion. They explore how market declines typically lead economic downturns and the pivotal role interest rates play. The conversation touches on Trump's political impact on the economy, oil and gold outlooks, and the complexities surrounding inflation. Insights into large versus small-cap stock performance and a forecast for potential market drawdowns add depth to the analysis, making it a compelling listen for investors.

Andy Constan, a finance expert known for his insights on monetary policy, delves into the nuances of Quantitative Tightening 2.0. He emphasizes the Fed's shift in its SOMA portfolio and its effects on financial markets. Topics include the intricate ties between QT, the debt ceiling, and Treasury's management strategies. Andy also talks about the ramifications of long-term asset holdings, the deficit's impact on market stability, and the anti-growth nature of cryptocurrencies like DOGE. It's a deep dive into the future of our economic landscape.

This week dives into insights from the Fed Meeting Minutes, revealing tensions between monetary policy and the debt ceiling. The discussion covers the Treasury's new issuance strategies amidst quantitative tightening and the challenges of inflation trends affecting markets. Blockchain innovations are highlighted, showcasing a gas-free transaction model. As oil production stagnates, geopolitical influences reshape markets, while crypto lingers in a cautious space. Plus, the hosts share their excitement for the upcoming Canada-U.S. hockey showdown!

Benn Eifert, Managing Partner at QVR Associates and an expert in volatility-focused hedge fund strategies, breaks down misconceptions surrounding derivatives and volatility. He discusses the intricacies of risk management in turbulent markets, highlighting challenges of tail hedges and the allure of 'free lunch' finance. Eifert also critiques Stephen Miran’s tariff arguments, exploring the interplay of trade, currency value, and the complexities of U.S. economic positioning. Tune in for insights that demystify options trading and explain the real cost of portfolio protection.

This week covers the latest CPI data and its impact on the market. The discussion dives into the balancing act of Trump's economic policies versus market success. They analyze how the government manages financial expectations without utilizing quantitative easing. The podcast also touches on Bitcoin's resilience through MicroStrategy's strategies. Furthermore, the conversation includes a lively examination of market trends, meme stocks, and the psychological elements influencing investor sentiment. The nuances of geopolitical tensions in trade also take center stage.

Andreas Steno Larsen, a contributor at Real Vision and CIO of Steno Global Macro Fund, offers a deep dive into the current macroeconomic landscape. He discusses the interplay between liquidity dynamics and credit markets, detailing how private credit growth influences equity markets. The conversation highlights the complexities of inflation and its disparate impact across different sectors. They also explore market trends, particularly the implications of wage growth on performance and the evolving role of major companies in shaping economic recovery.

The discussion kicks off with speculation about how political figures like Trump might affect market dynamics. Insights are shared on the implications of recent tariffs and their effects on manufacturing trends. The cryptocurrency landscape takes center stage, highlighting volatility and regulatory influences. There's a deep dive into liquidity dynamics and how bond market demand interacts with fiscal policies. Finally, the podcast contrasts the manufacturing and construction sectors, contemplating their roles in an evolving economy.