Forward Guidance Slowing But Growing: Why The U.S. Isn’t Headed For Recession | Prometheus Research
24 snips
Sep 24, 2024 Explore the macro framework that challenges traditional views on GDP and economic health. Delve into the manufacturing sector's struggles versus strong consumer spending, suggesting stagnation over recession. Assess nuanced labor market indicators that complicate recession predictions. Examine current inflation drivers and liquidity impacts on risk-taking post-financial crisis. Wrap up with strategies for portfolio allocation amidst a cooling economy and evolving market dynamics. It's an engaging analysis of the U.S. economic landscape!
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Macro Framework
- Macroeconomics centers around growth, inflation, and liquidity.
- Understanding these three factors helps grasp the entire macroeconomic picture.
Real-Time GDP & Consumption
- Real-time GDP components offer a timely economic snapshot.
- Consumption, a crucial part of GDP, shows strength and no contracting subsectors.
Investment & Government Spending
- Investment spending, a leading business cycle indicator, shows moderation but not contraction.
- Government spending's contribution to GDP growth is moderate at 0.4%.