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Forward Guidance

Latest episodes

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Feb 29, 2024 • 1h 6min

Claudia Sahm: The Fed Itself Is The Biggest Risk To A Soft Landing

Exploring the risk of recession and the role of the Federal Reserve, labor market indicators, issues in commercial real estate, and the impact on financial markets. Discussion on the failed notion of 'technical recession,' potential triggers for GDP declines, and the importance of Fed's data-driven decisions. Insightful analysis on Bitcoin as a macro asset and the VanEck Bitcoin Trust ETF, along with labor market trends and the Fed's monetary policies.
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Feb 27, 2024 • 1h 5min

Adrian Helfert on Stock/Bond Allocation, Equity Broadening, and Credit Market Richness

Adrian Helfert discusses stock/bond allocation, equity breadth, and credit market richness. He emphasizes overweighting stocks over bonds. The podcast also explores stock market valuations, return attribution, and the notion of 'equity duration'. Additionally, it delves into comparisons to the Dot Com Bubble and the outlook on credit and duration risk in the bond market.
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Feb 26, 2024 • 1h 26min

Overheated Stock Market To Correct Before Continuing Rally | Le Shrub on Le Shrub on AI, CRE, and China

Topics covered in the podcast include shorting credit during the Great Financial Crisis, challenges in commercial real estate, a prediction of a stock market correction, the impact of AI on company valuations, Bitcoin as a macroeconomic asset, inflation types, and Treasury operations on the stock market
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Feb 23, 2024 • 52min

Real Estate Crisis Hits Two German Banks | Josef Pschorn on Deutsche Pfandbriefbank and Aareal Bank

An in-depth discussion on the potential crisis at Deutsche Pfandbrief Bank, negative net interest margin challenges, and comparison to Greek and Spanish banks. Insights into the liability structure, bail-in-ability of AT1 debt, and long-term liabilities. Exploration of risks in European banking, real estate market dynamics, and strategies for overcoming challenges in the evolving banking environment.
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Feb 22, 2024 • 48min

Swiss Re’s Patrick Saner on Soft Landing Scenario, Central Bank Balance Sheet Policy, and Inflation Volatility

Topics covered include: U.S. economy resilience, central bank balance sheet policy, inflation volatility, currencies, European economy outlook, misconceptions in macroeconomics, and a discussion on soft landing scenarios.
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Feb 21, 2024 • 53min

Paul Sankey: Oil Would Be Below $60 If It Weren’t For Saudi Production Cuts

In this podcast, Paul Sankey discusses how Saudi production cuts are propping up oil prices, the implications of U.S. oil production growth, the importance of inventory quality in oil companies, and the potential impact of AI on power demand. Sankey also touches on M&A activity in the oil industry, the role of Bitcoin as a hedge, and the challenges faced in navigating power demand growth.
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Feb 19, 2024 • 1h 18min

Secrets of Small Cap Value Investing | Kyle Mowery

Explore the world of small cap value investing, finding great stocks and avoiding 'value traps'. Learn the role of macro in the economy, strategies for generating short ideas, and insights on corporate malfeasance. Discover essential resources for value investing and the challenges in the small cap market.
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Feb 16, 2024 • 1h 13min

The Rising Risks In The Private Credit Lending Bonanza | Andrzej Skiba

Financial expert Andrzej Skiba discusses the rising risks in private credit lending. Topics include the definition of private credit, the risky nature of the deals, the lack of data on performance during defaults, the illiquidity of the asset class, and the interplay between private credit and the rest of the fixed income universe.
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Feb 13, 2024 • 1h 17min

Danny Dayan: Reacceleration Risk Threatens Bond Market, Demographics In U.S. Are Inflationary (Not Deflationary)

Danny Dayan, an economist and risk analyst, discusses various intriguing topics including the risks of a recession, the impact of an overheating economy, trading strategies with options, analyzing the strength of the US economy, demographics' influence on the economy, the impact of refinancing, and future plans.
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Feb 13, 2024 • 1h 11min

Martin Pelletier & Joseph Wang on Stock Market Concentration, Cash-Futures Treasury Basis Trade, Structured Products, and New York Community Bank

Financial analyst Martin Pelletier and economist Joseph Wang discuss topics such as stock market concentration, cash-futures treasury basis trade, structured products, and New York Community Bank. They analyze the impact of passive investing on tech stocks, address concerns about NYCB's earnings report, and explore levering up the basis trade in fixed income and treasuries. They also discuss the performance of regional bank stocks, the Canadian banking sector, and investment opportunities in the market.

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