Forward Guidance

Michael Howell, an expert in finance and the founder of Cross-Border Capital, shares his insights on liquidity in global markets. He warns of hidden stimulus tapering off by the Fed and Treasury, impacting the economy's ability to refinance debts. Howell discusses the disconnect between 10-year yields and mortgage rates while urging that central banks must shift focus towards balance sheet management. Additionally, he explores China's debt deflation strategies and how global liquidity patterns correlate with Bitcoin's price. A must-listen for finance enthusiasts!

In this engaging panel, James Seyffart from Bloomberg, Jeff Park of Bitwise, Ambre Soubrian from Kyco, and John Mullin of Mantra dive into the world of tokenization. They discuss its potential to revolutionize finance by bringing liquidity to traditionally illiquid assets, similar to ETFs. The panel explores the exciting opportunities in tokenized private credit and data. They also address the next wave of institutional adoption and the challenges of competing with traditional finance giants, offering a hopeful outlook on regulatory developments.

Le Shrub, author of The Shrub Stack and notable trader, dives into the end of American exceptionalism and its impact on global investing. He discusses the shift of European allocators away from U.S. assets and the need for geographic diversification. The conversation covers U.S. fiscal policies and their effects on market strategies, as well as the evolving dynamics between American and European equities. Additionally, Shrub raises concerns about hedge funds' strategies and the importance of navigating investment risks in today's geopolitical climate.

Joseph Wang, who leads a registered investment advisory specializing in macro financial strategies, and Austin Campbell, an NYU professor focusing on stablecoins, discuss the impact of the latest FOMC meeting on the U.S. economy. They explore the idea of the U.S. becoming more like emerging markets with fiscal challenges and deficits. The conversation highlights the role of stablecoins in supporting U.S. dollar dominance and the innovative legislation surrounding them, while also examining the future of U.S. Treasury bonds and their implications for growth.

Jonah Van Bourg and Avi Felman, co-founders of 1000x, dive into the intriguing dynamics of Bitcoin versus altcoin inflows. They explore how political events, like Trump’s impact, sway market conditions. The duo presents a bullish case for Bitcoin while discussing global liquidity trends. They emphasize strategic positioning for 2025 and highlight how cryptocurrency is maturing with increasing institutional interest. Tune in for their insights on navigating the ever-changing market landscape.

The discussion dives into insights from the recent FOMC meeting, highlighting the stable monetary policy amid economic debates. There's a focus on the strategic importance of Bitcoin reserves and the rise of stablecoins in the U.S. economy. Contrasting market sentiments between institutional and retail investors in the crypto space are examined, alongside emerging investment strategies like duration bonds and shorting tech stocks. The integration of digital assets within traditional finance adds another layer to the conversation.

Mohamed El-Erian, an influential economist and global finance expert, offers keen insights on the U.S. debt crisis and inflationary pressures. He discusses four key strategies for addressing national debt and the implications of stablecoins in the economy. The conversation touches on Bitcoin’s potential as a neutral reserve asset and examines complex economic dynamics affecting growth. El-Erian also explores the Federal Reserve's challenges in maintaining its inflation target amid evolving market conditions.

Matt Hougan, a prominent figure in the crypto industry and currently with Bitwise, shares his bullish outlook for Bitcoin in 2025. He highlights the crucial role stablecoins will play in U.S. debt markets and discusses why the U.S. government needs them. The conversation also covers the optimism of institutions compared to retail investors, Bitcoin's rising correlation to gold, and potential growth within decentralized finance. It's an enlightening talk about the future of crypto and its integration into mainstream finance.

This week, we discuss the latest inflation data, the reversal of US exceptionalism, and Trump’s bold tariff bet potentially backfiring. We also delve into how we’re thinking about yields, whether 60/40 is compelling right now, why we’re in a crypto bear market, and more. Enjoy!—Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthompFollow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceForward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx—Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1e0GanjFY1lh2TKOFL7QQwGi6KY9nWhwl/view?usp=sharing—Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125—Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission!https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york—Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.—Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:42) Upcoming Digital Asset Summit(02:16) CPI Takeaways(05:51) Reversal of US Exceptionalism(08:45) Ledger Ad(09:34) Recession vs Growth Scare(14:11) Trump's Bold Tariff Game(20:09) The Long Foreign Markets-Short US Trade(24:36) Ledger Ad(25:21) The Long Foreign Markets-Short US Trade (Con't)(31:11) It's a Bear Market(32:36) Bitcoin and Crypto Market Analysis(34:26) Bond Market & Yields(39:11) 60/40 Portfolio(42:34) Hedging Strategies(45:08) Crypto Market Prospects—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro at Stonex, shares his keen insights on inflation forecasts and macroeconomic trends. He discusses the economic challenges posed by Trump's shifting tariffs and their impact on inventory management. Deluard critiques media narratives on stagflation and offers a fresh perspective on consumer resilience. He also analyzes the recent drop in Treasury yields and the implications of rising foreign yields on U.S. markets, highlighting the evolving landscape of global investments.