Forward Guidance The Bottom Is In For Yields, NOT Equities | Vincent Deluard
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Mar 12, 2025 
Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro at Stonex, shares his keen insights on inflation forecasts and macroeconomic trends. He discusses the economic challenges posed by Trump's shifting tariffs and their impact on inventory management. Deluard critiques media narratives on stagflation and offers a fresh perspective on consumer resilience. He also analyzes the recent drop in Treasury yields and the implications of rising foreign yields on U.S. markets, highlighting the evolving landscape of global investments.
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Inflation Trend
- Focus on the overall inflation trend, not just monthly CPI reports.
- Core inflation has consistently exceeded 2% for four years.
Government Spending Impact
- State and local government spending significantly impacts economic growth.
- This spending has grown considerably due to COVID relief, infrastructure bills, and increased tax revenue.
Tariff Uncertainty
- Tariff uncertainty impacts economic activity, regardless of implementation.
- Importers adjust behavior by front-running tariffs, affecting investment and economic friction.
