Forward Guidance What is Macro Telling Us? | Weekly Roundup
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Oct 12, 2024 This week, the discussion dives into the latest inflation and labor market data, uncovering the complexities of job creation and the impact of strikes. Coordinated central banking trends are analyzed, revealing potential effects on crypto and risk assets. The podcast also explores generational economic disparities and the rising discontent among younger demographics. As political events loom, insights on Bitcoin and Ethereum alongside interest rate dynamics highlight the ever-evolving landscape of digital assets. Get ready for a macro outlook that's anything but dull!
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Inflation and Labor Market Data
- Core inflation increased year-over-year for the first time since early 2023, exceeding expectations.
- Initial jobless claims also surpassed predictions, likely influenced by ongoing strikes and hurricanes.
Inflation Psychology and Policy
- Inflation is psychological, making quantitative analysis difficult. Policymakers' actions, like handouts, suggest inflation's eventual return.
- The Fed's focus seems to be on unemployment, potentially setting up another policy error.
Labor Market Focus and Noise
- Focus on the labor market, not just CPI, as the Fed prioritizes it. Labor market data is noisy, especially with hurricane impacts.
- Temporary layoffs will skew data, potentially causing recession talks. Deeper analysis beyond headlines is crucial.