Excess Returns

Warren Pies, founder of 314 Research and macro strategist, delves into the implications of a 'debasement regime' for investors. He explains the shift in focus from protecting principal to safeguarding purchasing power. Warren discusses the role of fiscal policy in driving this change and the current labor market's troubling dynamics. He addresses the potential for a bull market in the S&P 500 and the significance of gold in this climate. The conversation also covers portfolio strategies beyond traditional models and the future of AI in shaping the economy.

Andy Constan, a macro investor and founder of Damped Spring, shares insights drawn from his experiences at Bridgewater and Brevan Howard. He unveils his Four-Pillar Framework, discussing the interplay of growth, inflation, risk premia, and market flows. Andy elaborates on the impact of the AI-driven CapEx boom and the economic effects of tariffs, emphasizing the Fed's independence and the uncertainty in the labor market. He highlights the significance of probabilistic thinking for macro portfolios and the dynamics of corporate buybacks in shaping market direction.

Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 Partners and macro strategist, shares insights on today's volatile market. He argues we're in a once-in-a-generation macro opportunity due to policy shifts and dollar dynamics. Brigden emphasizes the need for tactical risk management and highlights the benefits of international assets over U.S. ones. He discusses inflation dynamics, the unusual hiring patterns, and how AI's impact on the job market will unfold more slowly than expected. He cautions against relying on bonds and explains the risks of an overly concentrated U.S. market.

Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, shares her expertise in technical analysis. She decodes the S&P 500's current strong uptrend and discusses new DeMark sell signals, indicating potential market consolidation. Katie emphasizes selectivity in investing, particularly in healthcare and utilities, while analyzing the implications of seasonality and market breadth. She also explores trends in gold, oil, Treasury yields, and the evolving correlation between bonds and equities, offering valuable insights for navigating year-end investments.

Rob Thummel, a senior investment professional at Tortoise Capital with decades of energy expertise, discusses why electricity is becoming the new oil. He highlights how AI is driving unprecedented electricity demand, predicting a future need equivalent to adding three Japan-sized energy capacities by 2050. Thummel explores the roles of natural gas, renewables, and the resurgence of nuclear energy. He also shares insights on energy infrastructure's stability and why it's a promising area for investors amid today's shifting energy landscape.

In this discussion, investor and author Bogumil Baranowski delves into the evolution of value investing, sharing wisdom rooted in the lessons of legends like Warren Buffett and Ben Graham. He outlines three phases of investment strategy: moving from seeking cheap stocks to recognizing the value of exceptional opportunities. Bogumil highlights the importance of patience and conviction, addresses the consequences of focusing too much on price over value, and touches on the family legacy of wealth stewardship. His insights inspire a reevaluation of what it means to invest wisely.

In a fascinating discussion, Matt Zenz, founder of Longview Research Partners and a seasoned investment expert, dives into the intricacies of factor investing. He shares lessons from his engineering background and his tenure at DFA, emphasizing the importance of evidence-based strategies. Matt explores the roles of value, momentum, and size in portfolios, and critiques large-cap tech dominance. He also discusses the potential of AI in investing and advocates for a low-cost, diversified approach for average investors while warning against the allure of overly complex strategies.

In a fascinating discussion, Noel Smith, co-founder and CIO of Convex Asset Management, shares his unique journey from biochemistry and military service to becoming a volatility trading expert. He explains why volatility is the best market informant, its role in regime shift models, and the strategic use of options for income. Noel delves into dynamic put-spread strategies, the impact of zero DTE options, and the nuances of dispersion trading. His insights on tail hedging and the importance of adapting quickly in trading provide invaluable lessons for investors.

In a captivating discussion, Ben Carlson, Director at Ritholtz Wealth Management and author of A Wealth of Common Sense, explores the complexities of today's market valuations. He highlights how changing market structures and the dominance of mega-cap tech stocks complicate traditional metrics. Delving into AI's impact on investing and the possible emergence of a bubble, Carlson shares valuable lessons from past market cycles, emphasizing the importance of diversification and setting realistic return expectations.

Jim Paulsen, a veteran market strategist and author of Paulsen Perspectives, shares his deep insights on the current economic landscape. He discusses the critical role of the job market in Fed decisions and the unusual bull market amidst low investor confidence. Paulsen highlights how recent Fed easing may affect market dynamics and discusses new era firms driving narrow market leadership. He also examines the implications of inflation, yields, and investor behavior, revealing how policy shifts could foster broader market participation and revive 'animal spirits'.