Excess Returns

In this discussion, John Tinsman, the portfolio manager of the AOT Growth and Innovation ETF, shares insights from his investing journey, focusing on low marginal cost businesses. He emphasizes the transformative power of AI in enhancing profitability and software development. John explains the concept of digital toll booths as a future model for software, and he contrasts today’s profitable tech firms with the dot-com era. He also shares his strategies for portfolio construction, advocating for large-cap growth technology as a sustainable investment choice.

In this engaging discussion, Joseph Shaposhnik, founder of Rainwater Equity and former TCW portfolio manager, reveals his investment philosophy emphasizing recurring-revenue businesses and the importance of management quality. He shares insights on learning from legends like Warren Buffett and Bill Miller, while dissecting red flags in management practices. Joseph also dives into the rationale for maintaining concentrated portfolios, disciplined selling strategies, and the impact of passive investing in today’s market. A must-listen for aspiring investors!

Sam Ro, a financial writer and author of '10 Stock Market Truths,' joins the discussion to challenge common market misconceptions. He highlights why long-term investing triumphs over short-term volatility and debunks the myth of average returns. Ro emphasizes the significance of earnings as a key driver of stock prices and warns about unrecognized risks. He also explores the dual nature of AI in markets and clarifies that stock market trends don't always reflect the broader economy. Tune in for valuable insights to navigate today's market!

In this discussion, Olga Bitel, a global strategist at William Blair, shares insights from her innovative "Perpetual Growth Machine" framework. She highlights how solving problems drives growth and warns that monopolies can stifle innovation. The conversation covers the massive potential of AI, challenges of housing affordability, and the dynamics of Europe’s defense investments. Bitel emphasizes that U.S. exceptionalism is fading, suggesting that the most lucrative opportunities may now lie beyond American markets.

Tim Hayes, Chief Global Investment Strategist at Ned Davis Research, offers insights into market dynamics. He unpacks the 360° weight-of-the-evidence framework, explaining the interplay between price, sentiment, macro factors, and valuation. Hayes discusses the current secular bull market amidst rising bear risks and underscores the significance of real breadth vs. dead-cat bounces. He also explores the shifting stock-bond correlation, mega-cap concentration risk, and why gold remains pivotal for investors. His core advice is to stay objective and flexible in asset allocation.

Brent Donnelly, a veteran trader and president of Spectra Markets, shares his deep insights into macro trading and risk management. He discusses how the Fed's increasing political influence complicates monetary policy and the implications for inflation targeting, questioning the relevance of the 2% benchmark. Brent emphasizes the importance of flexibility in trade structuring, particularly with gold and TLT options. He also highlights how AI and LLMs are revolutionizing trading strategies and market analysis, underscoring humility and adaptability in the ever-changing landscape.

Cullen Roche, founder of Discipline Funds and a macroeconomic expert, shares insights on various economic dynamics. He discusses why fears of a debt crisis may be exaggerated, highlights disinflationary pressures shaping the U.S. economy, and explores the Federal Reserve's challenges amid high inflation. Cullen examines the transformative role of AI in productivity and job markets, along with the impacts of demographics and immigration. His innovative 'defined duration' investment strategy offers a fresh perspective on asset allocation.

Eric Pachman from Bancreek Capital, an expert at blending data, economics, and investing, shares his transformative journey from corporate roles at Morgan Stanley and ExxonMobil to pioneering healthcare transparency. He discusses alarming labor market trends, revealing how healthcare dominates job growth while other sectors decline. Pachman emphasizes the power of information theory in investing and the implications of immigration on labor forces and inflation. His insights urge a rethink of data-driven investment strategies for navigating today’s complexities.

Cole Smead, Portfolio Manager at Smead Capital Management, offers sharp insights into the complexities of today’s markets. He discusses the dangers of fiscal largesse and inflation while challenging the myth of American exceptionalism. There's a deep dive into earnings quality, revealing troubling trends among U.S. corporations, and an analysis of passive investing's effects on market dynamics. Smead also contrasts the current AI boom to historical manias, emphasizing lessons from Buffett and Munger about evaluating companies and understanding investment risks.

Brent Schutte, the CIO of Northwestern Mutual, shares his extensive investing insights gained over 30 years. He discusses the dual mandates of the Fed, emphasizing the significance of inflation and unemployment. Brent highlights how tariffs are reshaping economic dynamics and the concentration risks posed by dominant market players. He reflects on lessons from past financial cycles and underscores the critical importance of diversification in today’s uncertain landscape, advocating for a cautious approach to both active and passive investing strategies.