What a Global Regime Change Means for Investors | Julian Brigden

33 snips

Oct 9, 2025

Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 Partners and macro strategist, shares insights on today's volatile market. He argues we're in a once-in-a-generation macro opportunity due to policy shifts and dollar dynamics. Brigden emphasizes the need for tactical risk management and highlights the benefits of international assets over U.S. ones. He discusses inflation dynamics, the unusual hiring patterns, and how AI's impact on the job market will unfold more slowly than expected. He cautions against relying on bonds and explains the risks of an overly concentrated U.S. market.

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INSIGHT

Macro Is The Key At Extremes

Macro acts as a supporting actor most of the time but becomes central at market tops and bottoms.
Those turning points are where macro analysis creates the biggest edge for investors.

INSIGHT

Policy Can Change U.S. Growth Trajectory

Policy shifts (tariffs, immigration, dollar stance) can structurally reduce U.S. trend growth and change investment flows.
A weaker dollar plus restrictive immigration and tariffs can materially lower U.S. real returns.

ADVICE

Wait For Price Confirmation

Develop a macro thesis but wait for price confirmation before trading to avoid being prematurely wrong.
Use pair trades and technical breakouts (e.g., XLK vs XME) to get actionable, high reward setups.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, macro strategist Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners joins the show to break down today’s volatile market landscape. Brigden discusses why he believes we’re in one of the most fertile environments for macro investors in decades, the forces driving dollar weakness, inflation, and capital rotation, and how investors can position amid shifting policies, labor constraints, and AI’s uncertain impact. He also explains the risks of U.S. exceptionalism, the fragility of equity markets, and why he’s long everything not tied to the U.S.

Topics covered:

The role of macro as a “supporting actor” that becomes essential at tops and bottoms
Why this may be the best macro environment in 40 years
The policy and market implications of tariffs, immigration, and a weaker dollar
Positioning for U.S. underperformance and the case for international assets
How Brigden uses price confirmation and technical signals in his process
The dollar’s impact on equity and sector leadership
Inflation, labor markets, and the “no firing, no hiring” phenomenon
Why AI’s economic impact will take longer than expected
The probabilities of recession, inflation, and soft landing scenarios
Fiscal dominance, debt, and the future of financial repression
Why bonds are “a crap place to have your cash”
The fragile reflexive cycle of passive investing and U.S. equities
Lessons for individual investors about thinking independently and avoiding industry “cheerleaders”

Timestamps:
00:00 Macro at extremes and U.S. underperformance risk
02:00 How Brigden uses macro analysis to time markets
06:00 Why this is a generational macro opportunity
08:00 Tariffs, growth, and the policy shift under Trump
12:00 Price confirmation and process discipline
15:00 The case for non-U.S. assets and sector rotation
20:00 Inflation waves and the labor market’s fragility
26:00 AI, uncertainty, and hiring hesitation
36:00 Recession vs. reacceleration probabilities
42:00 The debt problem and fiscal dominance
47:00 Sector positioning and the weak dollar playbook
51:00 Passive flows and market reflexivity
56:00 The hyper-financialized U.S. economy
01:00:00 AI, equity valuations, and risk of disappointment
01:01:00 Lessons for investors and independent thinking