Excess Returns

In this episode of Excess Returns, Rupert Mitchell returns to break down a rapidly shifting global macro landscape and explain how he is positioning across regions, assets, and market regimes. The conversation spans emerging markets, commodities, China, Latin America, US market leadership, and the risks building beneath familiar narratives. Rupert walks through the charts, frameworks, and portfolio construction decisions that underpin his current outlook, with a focus on duration, cash flows, and real assets in a changing cycle.Topics covered include:Why US equity leadership is showing signs of fatigue after a decade-plus runThe case for emerging markets as a multi-year relative tradeLatin America as a commodity-driven opportunity rather than a political betBrazil, Mexico, and Peru through the lens of fiscal policy and real assetsWhy India stands out as expensive within emerging marketsChina’s equity market inflection and the role of domestic savings and fiscal supportThe difference between onshore A-shares and offshore Chinese equitiesWhy Rupert prefers lower-beta, dividend-oriented exposure in ChinaHow AI is being deployed differently in China versus the USThe risks facing enterprise software and long-duration growth assetsPortfolio construction, benchmarking, and managing drawdowns across cyclesHow Rupert thinks about hedging, trend following, and capital preservationTimestamps:00:00 Macro market backdrop and early warning signals01:00 Venezuela, oil, and why context matters more than headlines04:40 The chart of truth and US versus international equities07:00 Emerging markets relative performance and historical parallels10:00 Duration risk, valuation, and the shift toward real assets14:30 Mag 7 leadership, software weakness, and AI disruption18:00 India valuations and the role of flows and derivatives20:40 Latin America beyond politics: commodities and fiscal drivers26:00 Brazil, Mexico, and country-level positioning29:50 Benchmarking and why Latin America is a major overweight32:10 China’s equity inflection and the ABC framework36:00 Fiscal policy, buybacks, and domestic savings in China41:00 Tencent versus Alibaba and managing drawdowns44:30 AI capex discipline in China versus the US46:00 Stock selection in China and second-derivative opportunities51:00 Portfolio construction, benchmarks, and risk management58:00 Blind Squirrel Macro, live shows, and ongoing research

Gary Mishuris, an MIT-trained investor and CIO of Silver Ring Value Partners, dives into the intricacies of value investing. He shares valuable lessons from his experiences with legends like Peter Lynch and explores the mispricing of Warner Bros. Discovery. Gary discusses how spin-offs can create hidden value and why understanding option use is crucial in investing. He also highlights the transformative role of AI in research, making a case for integrating new technologies without losing critical judgment.

Join Mike Green, Chief Investment Strategist at Simplify Asset Management, as he unpacks the complexities of passive investing. He reveals why index funds aren't truly passive and discusses the inelastic market hypothesis, showing how daily flows can dramatically affect prices. Green highlights the growing dominance of passive investments and the potential instability this creates in markets. He also shares insights on the impact of demographic shifts and AI on capital investments, raising crucial questions for future investors.

In this engaging conversation, Gene Munster, a seasoned venture investor, and Doug Clinton, co-founder of Intelligent Alpha, delve into the future of AI and technology. They argue that the AI bull market has plenty of room to grow, despite skeptics. Key insights include predictions of NASDAQ returns post-2026, the potential outperformance of small-cap tech, and expected surges in AI capital spending. The duo also explores Apple’s evolving AI strategy and the intense competition among tech giants, highlighting the transformative impact of AI on market dynamics.

Aswath Damodaran, a finance professor and expert on valuation, discusses his investing philosophy amid rising AI market risks. He emphasizes the importance of buying undervalued stocks over merely great narratives. Damodaran shares his portfolio management strategies, including diversification and selling discipline. He predicts AI could create a bubble and warns about the impact on profit margins. The conversation also covers company lifecycles and the risks of entanglement in the AI ecosystem, providing valuable insights for discerning investors.

Liz Ann Sonders, the Chief Investment Strategist known for her insights into macroeconomics, dives into the evolving economic landscape as we approach 2026. She discusses how instability, rather than uncertainty, shapes investor behavior, and the implications for the labor market and inflation dynamics. Sonders highlights the K-shaped economy, the shifting correlation between stocks and bonds, and the significant impact of AI on productivity and capital spending. Her analysis reveals how we might need to rethink diversification and market positioning in this new, volatile era.

Grant Williams, an investment commentator and expert in macroeconomics, discusses the 'hundred year pivot,' highlighting a seismic shift in the global financial landscape. He explains the erosion of trust in institutions and how historical events like the 2008 crisis have reshaped investor behavior. Williams explores the rising importance of commodities and real assets in a deglobalizing world, and he examines the implications of AI on capital allocation. His insights provide a thought-provoking perspective on navigating a future marked by uncertainty and volatility.

Join market commentator Sam Ro, known for his insights on long-term investing, as he shares wisdom on valuations and the impact of AI on the economy. He debates whether traditional valuation tools still hold weight in a market buzzing with tech innovations. Discussing profit margins, he highlights why mean reversion hasn’t materialized post-COVID. Sam raises questions about the potential overbuild in AI capital and warns that bubble timing is notoriously tricky. He emphasizes the lessons from past market exuberance and the importance of framing uncertainty without relying on short-term forecasts.

Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies and renowned technical market analyst, shares her insights on market trends ahead of 2026. She discusses the persistent long-term uptrend in U.S. equities but warns of short-term volatility. Stockton delves into the importance of momentum indicators like MACD and stochastics for identifying entry points. She also explores sector dynamics, highlighting the contrasting performances of growth versus value stocks, and shares her perspective on gold and Bitcoin trends. A must-listen for market enthusiasts!

In this engaging talk, Jim Paulsen, a veteran market strategist and economist, shares his insights on the economy and the markets looking toward 2026. He explains the concept of a 'no-shaped economy' and how current growth may be exaggerated. Jim delves into labor market signals indicating underlying sluggishness and explores the concentrated nature of today's bull market, which many dislike. He also discusses the implications of policy lags and emerging opportunities as monetary policies shift, urging investors to adjust their strategies accordingly.