Excess Returns

In this discussion, Olga Bitel, a global strategist at William Blair, shares insights from her innovative "Perpetual Growth Machine" framework. She highlights how solving problems drives growth and warns that monopolies can stifle innovation. The conversation covers the massive potential of AI, challenges of housing affordability, and the dynamics of Europe’s defense investments. Bitel emphasizes that U.S. exceptionalism is fading, suggesting that the most lucrative opportunities may now lie beyond American markets.

Tim Hayes, Chief Global Investment Strategist at Ned Davis Research, offers insights into market dynamics. He unpacks the 360° weight-of-the-evidence framework, explaining the interplay between price, sentiment, macro factors, and valuation. Hayes discusses the current secular bull market amidst rising bear risks and underscores the significance of real breadth vs. dead-cat bounces. He also explores the shifting stock-bond correlation, mega-cap concentration risk, and why gold remains pivotal for investors. His core advice is to stay objective and flexible in asset allocation.

Brent Donnelly, a veteran trader and president of Spectra Markets, shares his deep insights into macro trading and risk management. He discusses how the Fed's increasing political influence complicates monetary policy and the implications for inflation targeting, questioning the relevance of the 2% benchmark. Brent emphasizes the importance of flexibility in trade structuring, particularly with gold and TLT options. He also highlights how AI and LLMs are revolutionizing trading strategies and market analysis, underscoring humility and adaptability in the ever-changing landscape.

Cullen Roche, founder of Discipline Funds and a macroeconomic expert, shares insights on various economic dynamics. He discusses why fears of a debt crisis may be exaggerated, highlights disinflationary pressures shaping the U.S. economy, and explores the Federal Reserve's challenges amid high inflation. Cullen examines the transformative role of AI in productivity and job markets, along with the impacts of demographics and immigration. His innovative 'defined duration' investment strategy offers a fresh perspective on asset allocation.

Eric Pachman from Bancreek Capital, an expert at blending data, economics, and investing, shares his transformative journey from corporate roles at Morgan Stanley and ExxonMobil to pioneering healthcare transparency. He discusses alarming labor market trends, revealing how healthcare dominates job growth while other sectors decline. Pachman emphasizes the power of information theory in investing and the implications of immigration on labor forces and inflation. His insights urge a rethink of data-driven investment strategies for navigating today’s complexities.

Cole Smead, Portfolio Manager at Smead Capital Management, offers sharp insights into the complexities of today’s markets. He discusses the dangers of fiscal largesse and inflation while challenging the myth of American exceptionalism. There's a deep dive into earnings quality, revealing troubling trends among U.S. corporations, and an analysis of passive investing's effects on market dynamics. Smead also contrasts the current AI boom to historical manias, emphasizing lessons from Buffett and Munger about evaluating companies and understanding investment risks.

Brent Schutte, the CIO of Northwestern Mutual, shares his extensive investing insights gained over 30 years. He discusses the dual mandates of the Fed, emphasizing the significance of inflation and unemployment. Brent highlights how tariffs are reshaping economic dynamics and the concentration risks posed by dominant market players. He reflects on lessons from past financial cycles and underscores the critical importance of diversification in today’s uncertain landscape, advocating for a cautious approach to both active and passive investing strategies.

Shawn Gibson, Co-founder and CIO of Liquid Strategies, and Eric McArdle, Co-founder and CEO, discuss the fascinating world of option-based strategies. They unpack the rapid rise of options in ETFs, highlighting the pitfalls of covered calls and the importance of risk management. The duo explores how to properly utilize overlays for income and protection, emphasizing the complexities of high-yield products. They also delve into innovative techniques like put spreads and interval funds, offering insights on balancing risk and enhancing portfolio performance.

Jim Paulsen, Chief Investment Strategist at Paulsen Perspectives, dives into the nuances of the economy and market dynamics. He discusses why recession fears might be overstated, despite slow GDP growth and employment challenges. Jim highlights the divergence in valuations between the S&P 500 and small/mid-cap firms and argues that inflation concerns could be overblown. He also offers insights on Federal Reserve policies, suggesting that easing could lead to a broader market recovery, as many companies remain undervalued.

Mike Philbrick, from Resolve Asset Management, shares his expertise on navigating today's unpredictable markets. He discusses why the classic 60/40 portfolio may be outdated and why assets like gold and Bitcoin are crucial for resilient investing. The conversation delves into psychological factors influencing investor behavior, the case for return stacking, and the shift in attitudes towards cryptocurrencies across generations. Mike also highlights the evolving regulatory landscape and how both gold and Bitcoin can complement traditional investments.