Excess Returns

In this engaging discussion, investment strategist Jim Paulsen shares his insights into the current economic landscape. He argues that the private sector may be more resilient than expected, suggesting a recession isn't imminent. Paulsen analyzes the impact of tariffs on consumer spending, highlights a productivity boom driven by technology, and questions the stagnation of corporate dividends despite a bull market. With data-driven clarity, he navigates through political pressures on the Federal Reserve and the market's potential for broader growth.

Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, decodes today’s market dynamics with sharp insights. She highlights the impact of rising debt on economic growth and reveals how retail trading influences market moves. Sonders discusses the complacency around tariffs, the shifting landscape of inflation, and the overlooked effects of immigration policy. She also critiques the focus on major stocks and emphasizes the importance of diversifying investments. Her analysis provides investors with a clearer understanding of the complexities in today's financial world.

Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy at PIMCO, shares her insights on the pressing policy risks that seem overlooked by the markets. She discusses how tariff increases and legislative changes can impact investment strategies. Cantrill highlights the evolving risks to Fed independence and the challenges surrounding GSE reform. The conversation sheds light on how these factors intertwine with fiscal policy and market complacency, suggesting a need for investors to adjust their focus for better positioning in uncertain times.

Aahan Menon, the founder of Prometheus Research and an expert in systematic macro investing, dives into the reasons why recession indicators have failed to signal the current economic landscape. He discusses how changing monetary policy affects market sensitivity and why focusing on current data is essential. The conversation also uncovers the nuanced impacts of tariffs on corporate profits and business confidence, while challenging traditional investment strategies and emphasizing the importance of risk management in today's complex environment.

Brent Kochuba, the founder of SpotGamma and an expert in options market dynamics, joins the conversation to unveil the hidden forces of option dealer flows that drive stock market behavior. He explains how concepts like gamma, vanna, and charm impact trader strategies and market volatility. The discussion highlights the significance of dealer hedging and how expiration cycles can signal major market shifts. Real-world examples, including GameStop and Tesla, illustrate how options trading can move billions without traditional market triggers.

Luca Paolini, Chief Strategist at Pictet Asset Management, shares insights on the fading era of U.S. exceptionalism and the upcoming Great Convergence in global markets. He discusses the shifting landscape of investments, advocating for bonds and other income-generating assets, while exploring the implications of rising debt and protectionism. Paolini also delves into how AI impacts productivity and market valuations, along with the roles of gold and cryptocurrencies in future portfolios. A thought-provoking conversation for investors navigating change.

Eric Crittenden, CIO of Standpoint Funds and a seasoned expert in trend following and risk transfer markets, dives deep into the world of resilient investing. He shares candid insights on why many investors misunderstand managed futures and discusses the psychological challenges of maintaining client relationships during market drawdowns. Eric advocates for blending passive equities with systematic macro strategies and critiques the reliance on bonds as diversifiers. With a philosophical lens on risk and market design, this conversation sheds light on the complexities of modern investment.

Ryan Krueger, co-founder of Freedom Day Solutions and manager of the MBOX ETF, joins the discussion to reveal the shortcomings of common dividend strategies. He emphasizes the importance of prioritizing dividend growth over high yield and critiques the flawed 4% withdrawal rule. Ryan introduces 'Freedom Day,' a novel approach to retirement focused on income rather than asset accumulation. The conversation explores the necessity of a disciplined sell process and the often-overlooked factors that can elevate long-term investment success.

Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin and author of Hate the Game, dives deep into the current U.S. housing market, where sellers outnumber buyers for the first time in a decade. She discusses the psychological barriers for both parties, the economic implications of high mortgage rates, and the regional challenges across states like Florida and Texas. Daryl also highlights climate risks and zoning reforms affecting real estate dynamics. Additionally, she emphasizes why homeownership shouldn't solely be viewed as an investment strategy.

Robert Hagstrom, an investment manager and author renowned for his insights on Warren Buffett, discusses key misconceptions in value investing. He highlights the pitfalls of focusing too rigidly on low P/E ratios and traditional metrics, revealing how this leads to missed opportunities. Hagstrom shares lessons from his accidental journey into finance and the importance of adapting investment strategies. He also reflects on Buffett's leadership transition at Berkshire Hathaway and critiques the illusion of private equity's appeal in today’s market.