Excess Returns

Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, and Bob Elliott, Unlimited co-founder and CIO, explore the widening gap between spending and paychecks. They discuss household wealth, persistent inflation, Fed policy, bonds versus stocks, and whether AI can deliver the productivity gains markets expect. They also examine how fading savings and business investment could pressure profits without triggering a 2008-style credit crisis.

Michael Howell, founder and CIO of CrossBorder Capital and author of Capital Wars, explores the global liquidity cycle’s turn toward turbulence. He discusses AI’s late-cycle boost, Wall Street competing with real-world investment for funding, repo markets and collateral, the looming debt-refinancing wall, and why government bonds may regain appeal. He also examines Europe’s fiscal strains, China’s debt burden, and the outlook for gold.

John Davi, founder and CIO of Astoria Investment Management, explores portfolios beyond the Magnificent Seven. He discusses S&P 500 concentration, diversifying SPY and QQQ, inflation-era parallels with the 1970s, and the role of real assets. Davi also examines AI adopters versus infrastructure builders, credit-market warning signs, quality investing, and hedging before drawdowns.

Dave Nadig, a financial futurist and ETF analyst, joins Cameron Dawson, CIO of NewEdge Wealth, to explore what could unsettle markets. They discuss AI financing, semiconductor stocks that may be cheap for a reason, margin normalization, Fed signals, the K-shaped consumer, and the prospect of a prolonged sideways market. They also cover smarter rebalancing, cash planning, and unexpectedly memorable Halloween traditions.

Jay Hatfield, founder and CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, makes the case for an AI “reverse bubble.” He explores CoreWeave’s debt, contracted data-center demand, compute prices, Treasury yields, and technology valuations. Hatfield also challenges the Fed’s inflation framework and shares his PEGY approach to dividend stocks, catalysts, compounding, and covered calls.

Kai Wu, founder and portfolio manager of Sparkline Capital, explores what investors really own beneath familiar fund labels. He reveals the S&P 500’s surprising AI concentration, explains why AI funds may duplicate Nasdaq exposure, and examines how emerging markets and industrial stocks connect to the same trade. He also discusses factor overlap, ARKK, intangible assets, and look-through tools for evaluating diversification.

Daniel Crosby, psychologist, behavioral finance expert, author, and Orion’s Chief Behavioral Officer, explores why investors often sabotage strong returns. He discusses behaviorally optimal portfolios, safety, stability and success buckets, risk tolerance versus composure, and the blurred line between investing and gambling. They also examine recency bias, addictive apps, algorithmic media, excitement as a blind spot, and AI’s role in more human financial advice.

Ted Mortonson, Baird technology strategist and former naval aviator, brings nearly three decades of market-cycle experience to a wide-ranging discussion. He explains why investors are waiting before buying the semiconductor dip, how AI differs from the dot-com era, and which companies may capture its profits. They also examine data-center financing, IPO risks, circular funding, Apple, Meta, Tesla, SpaceX, and lessons from naval aviation.

Brian Portnoy, author, investor, and founder of Shaping Wealth, examines how 25 finance professionals invest their own money. They explore why personal goals, family needs, career risk, and peace of mind can outweigh spreadsheet optimization. The conversation covers cash reserves, mortgages, business ownership, bonds, alternatives, indexing, and the ways relationships, knowledge, and opportunity compound alongside wealth.

Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates and a pioneer in quantitative investing, explores the hidden mechanics behind passive funds. He discusses AI’s potential winners, why customers may capture more value than infrastructure builders, GPU obsolescence, and the overlooked importance of intangible assets. The conversation also examines index inclusion, forced buying, market concentration, and smarter ways to test investment ideas.