Excess Returns

Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, shares her expertise on technical analysis and market trends. She discusses the current duality of a secular bull market and cyclical bear, revealing insights on U.S. and international equities. Key topics include sector rotations, market breadth implications, and the strategic positioning of her TACK ETF. Stockton also dives into the outlook for commodities like gold and crude oil, and offers her take on Bitcoin's potential breakout amidst evolving macroeconomic signals.

Rob Arnott, the founder of Research Affiliates and a leading voice in challenging economic norms, joins to discuss the pitfalls of government stimulus on growth. He argues that higher spending historically correlates with slower economic progress, emphasizing the importance of sustainable fiscal policies. Arnott explores lessons from Ireland and trade strategies, particularly tariffs, while providing insights into market expectations and uncovering undervalued investment opportunities in today's economy.

Kris Abdelmessih, a former options trader and founder of Moontower AI, takes listeners on an engaging journey through the world of options trading. Using Lego analogies, he simplifies the complex concept of put-call parity, revealing how options can replicate stock payoffs. Kris discusses synthetic positions and the true mechanics behind covered calls, all while shedding light on how traders infer interest rates through options pricing. With practical lessons and entertaining references, this conversation is a valuable resource for both beginners and seasoned investors.

Join Sri Narayan, CEO of Cache Financial and former tech giant employee, alongside Wes Gray, CEO of Alpha Architect. They delve into the perils of concentrated stock positions, particularly for tech employees, and how stock compensation can lead to overexposure. Discover innovative strategies like exchange funds and Section 351 ETF conversions for efficient tax management and diversification. They also emphasize practical solutions for financial advisors and investors navigating the challenges of substantial investments, highlighting the importance of tailored products in today's market.

Neil Howe, a world-renowned expert on generational theory and author, discusses his insights on societal shifts. He explores the identity crisis of Gen X as they transition into leadership roles and contrasts their individualism with Millennials' collective investing mindset. Howe highlights the significance of community in times of chaos, the cycling nature of history, and how past crises can shape the present. He also questions whether the next societal reboot will be driven by state or community efforts, painting a vivid picture of what may come next.

Kai Wu, the Founder of Sparkline Capital, dives deep into investing tactics amidst trade wars. He argues that while many investors flock to domestic stocks, high-quality multinational companies with intangible assets are better positioned for stability. Wu discusses the historical context of tariffs and their irrational market reactions, revealing the benefits of global exposure. He provides four actionable strategies for building resilient portfolios, emphasizing the long-term advantages of international companies over domestic firms in today's shifting political landscape.

Kris Sidial, Co-CIO and founder of Ambrus Group, specializes in volatility trading strategies, while Brent Kochuba provides vital market insights. Together, they discuss the underperformance of tail risk funds and the critical need for robust volatility strategies. They explore market liquidity’s fragility, retail's surprising role in recent market moves, and the psychological traps that hinder effective trading. Additionally, they analyze how volatility may remain elevated longer than anticipated, unraveling the complexities behind current market dynamics.

Cameron Dawson, the CIO of NewEdge Wealth, provides sharp macro insights and investment strategies. He discusses the precarious position investors face with tariffs potentially leading to a recession. Dawson highlights the potential economic fallout from 145% tariffs on China and explores the shifting dynamics of treasury demand in a capital account war. He also emphasizes strategies like favoring value stocks over growth, the importance of quality investments, and effective rebalancing techniques amid market chaos.

In this conversation, Travis Prentice from Informed Momentum Company shares his nearly three decades of expertise in momentum investing. He clarifies the distinction between momentum and growth investing and dispels common myths surrounding momentum strategies. Listeners learn about the mechanics of cross-sectional momentum, how to optimize portfolios with dynamic versus continuous momentum, and the impact of passive investing on stock valuations. Travis also discusses risk management in momentum investing and the advantages of combining it with other factors for better performance.

Jared Dillian, the contrarian economist behind the Daily Dirt Nap newsletter and host of the Macro Dirt Podcast, dives deep into the current market landscape. He argues that tariffs may actually be deflationary, challenges the notion of a strong dollar in the long run, and shares insights on the shift towards international stocks. Dillian also discusses his unique investment strategy—an 'Awesome Portfolio'—and the risks of protectionism while highlighting the evolving importance of social media in gauging market sentiment.