Excess Returns

Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies and renowned technical market analyst, shares her insights on market trends ahead of 2026. She discusses the persistent long-term uptrend in U.S. equities but warns of short-term volatility. Stockton delves into the importance of momentum indicators like MACD and stochastics for identifying entry points. She also explores sector dynamics, highlighting the contrasting performances of growth versus value stocks, and shares her perspective on gold and Bitcoin trends. A must-listen for market enthusiasts!

In this engaging talk, Jim Paulsen, a veteran market strategist and economist, shares his insights on the economy and the markets looking toward 2026. He explains the concept of a 'no-shaped economy' and how current growth may be exaggerated. Jim delves into labor market signals indicating underlying sluggishness and explores the concentrated nature of today's bull market, which many dislike. He also discusses the implications of policy lags and emerging opportunities as monetary policies shift, urging investors to adjust their strategies accordingly.

Gautam Baid, managing partner at Stellar Wealth Partners India Fund and author known for his insights on compounding and value investing, shares his investing philosophy rooted in patience and quality. He emphasizes the power of compounding, illustrating how being wrong can still yield exceptional long-term returns. Baid highlights the importance of journaling to prevent biases and improve decision-making. He discusses market signals, liquidity cycles, and the necessity for global diversification, warning against complacency in long-term investing.

This informative discussion dives into insights from 22 major market forecasts for 2026. The hosts tackle why these year-end projections, despite past inaccuracies, offer a useful framework for understanding economic expectations. They explore the transformative impact of AI on growth and productivity, alongside debates on late-cycle dynamics and inflation concerns. The episode also highlights risks in profitability, fiscal policies, and the concentration of major companies, helping investors navigate a complex landscape.

Join financial historian Jim Grant and Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders as they break down controversial beliefs in investing. Grant argues fervently that gold will always reclaim its status as money, challenging the fiat currency narrative. Meanwhile, Sonders shares her skepticism towards year-end price targets, advocating for blue-chip dividend strategies instead. Their insights push the boundaries of conventional investing wisdom, making for a thought-provoking discussion on risk and market behavior.

Join Paul Eitelman, Global Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, as he reveals why 2026 might be a pivotal year for the economy. He discusses the transition from resilience to reacceleration in the U.S. economy and how AI is shifting from buzz to tangible returns, potentially reshaping industries. Paul also highlights the fading tariffs and immigration constraints, while pinpointing macroeconomic signals that suggest broadening market leadership beyond tech giants. Emphasizing the importance of diversification and staying invested, he provides insights for savvy investors.

Hosts dive into the disruption of modern portfolio theory over the last 15 years, questioning traditional market assumptions. There's a fascinating debate on the 'Sell America' narrative influenced by fund manager surveys. Gold emerges as a hot topic, outperforming other assets and drawing comparisons with Bitcoin. They also tackle the challenges of diversified portfolios amid concentrated benchmarks, advising on how to handle client emotions around gold and crypto. Finally, expect a mix of holiday cheer as they share light-hearted personal traditions and movie favorites.

Adrian Helfert, an investment professional at Westwood known for his expertise in portfolio construction, joins the discussion to dissect the impact of AI on investing. He explores how AI-driven capital spending is reshaping return profiles and presents a framework for portfolio construction. Adrian discusses the dual nature of AI as both opportunity and risk, the debate over market concentration, and challenges traditional recession indicators. He also suggests a rethink of the classic 60/40 portfolio and emphasizes the importance of tactical international diversification.

In this discussion, Adam Butler and Ben Hunt tackle the complex issue of economic precarity versus poverty. Butler, an investment professional and author, argues for a shift in focus from traditional poverty metrics to what people actually experience in their daily lives. They explore the role of debt, housing, and childcare in heightening economic insecurity, and critique the ways tech narratives dismiss emotional realities. They also delve into the impact of labor mobility, intergenerational support, and policy debates, urging a re-evaluation of solutions in an unstable economic landscape.

David Wright, Head of Quantitative Investing at Pictet Asset Management, specializes in machine learning for investment strategies. He discusses how AI and machine learning enhance stock forecasting with features and decision trees. David contrasts machine learning with large language models, highlighting the importance of interpretability. He explains the role of human judgment in portfolio management and the necessity of robust data selection. Ultimately, he shares insights on feature construction, preventing overfitting, and the ideal investment horizons for machine learning.