Excess Returns

Jim Paulsen, a veteran market strategist and macroeconomic analyst, examines why tech leadership may be losing momentum. He explores tightening financial conditions, delayed effects from yields, oil and the dollar, AI spending and profitability, and the risks of crowded positioning. He also discusses retail, housing, employment, bond yields, Walmart’s recession signal, and how a correction could set up another advance.

Barry Ritholtz, founder of Ritholtz Wealth Management, columnist, author, and financial commentator, joins a lively discussion on AI’s genuine productivity gains and why they may not create a stock-picking edge. They examine market concentration, mega-IPOs, data-center financing, consumer pricing, playful AI experiments, and the human side of financial advice. Ritholtz also explains his renewed enthusiasm for bonds and municipal income.

Robert Hagstrom, EquityCompass CIO and author on Warren Buffett, and Chris Davis, Davis Funds chairman and value investor, examine the hardest part of investing: holding exceptional businesses. They discuss position limits, trimming winners, Costco, index concentration, return on capital, customer trust, balance-sheet risks, and whether AI’s builders or users will capture lasting profits.

Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies and a technical-analysis specialist, explores why a bull market can coexist with narrowing breadth and lagging portfolios. She discusses Treasury yields, credit spreads, sector leadership, semiconductors and international markets. Stockton also explains TACK’s defensive positioning and charts the outlook for gold, oil and Bitcoin, including BNAV’s tactical strategy.

Tom Maher, a portfolio manager at Hilton Capital Management focused on small- and mid-cap stocks, explores why smaller companies may be ready for renewed attention. He discusses AI’s physical infrastructure, reshoring and industrial recovery, passive-investing distortions, private markets and IPOs, higher rates, and how management quality and improving fundamentals shape his investment decisions.

Ed Yardeni, economist, investment strategist, and founder of Yardeni Research, still projects the S&P 500 at 10,000 by 2029, though rising oil prices and bond yields have made him more cautious. He discusses an earnings-led bull market, retiree spending, AI’s productivity potential, data as a new factor of production, benefits for the “impressive 493,” bond vigilantes, diesel-driven inflation, and why global diversification matters.

Andy Constan, macro investor and strategist; Brent Kochuba, options-market analyst; and Eric Pachman, creator of Data for the People, unpack markets at a crossroads. Rising yields, heavy debt supply and resilient growth challenge rate-relief bets. Options flows reveal surprising calm. Diesel shortages could reignite inflation, while AI spending, productivity and adoption raise fresh questions for investors.

Michael Baron, Co-president and portfolio manager at Baron Capital, explores AI winners beyond mega-cap tech. He discusses proprietary data in software, Tesla’s autonomy and energy ambitions, SpaceX’s reusable rockets and Starlink, and the possibility of AI infrastructure in space. He also shares perspectives on long-horizon valuation, management quality, letting winners run, and when fading competitive advantages signal a sale.

Kris Abdelmessih, options trader and writer behind Moontower, explores why a favorable edge can still end in ruin. He unpacks the Kelly Criterion through a revealing coin-flip experiment, portfolio sizing, self-insurance, extended warranties, drawdowns, and fractional Kelly. The discussion examines compounded wealth, volatility drag, and how uncertainty changes the amount worth risking.

Eric Pachman, data journalist and founder of Data 4 The People, looks beneath headline economic statistics. He explores noisy payroll reports, America’s shrinking labor force, foreign-born workers, and the path from diesel prices to retail inflation. He also examines why personal inflation differs from CPI, what grocery data reveals about store brands, and how AI can make data journalism more accessible.