Excess Returns

Bob Elliott, Founder/CEO of Unlimited and expert in macroeconomics and ETF strategies, shares insights on the current economic landscape. He discusses the late-cycle economy and the disconnect between market optimism and real-world data. Elliott reveals how AI spending isn’t translating to economic gains yet, questioning the returns on significant investments in the tech sector. He also warns of risks in private markets and highlights new hedge-fund-style ETFs that aim to provide alpha at lower costs, utilizing innovative replication strategies.

Chris Mayer, an investor and author behind the '100 Bagger' concept, and Robert Hagstrom, a portfolio manager focused on long-term investing, dive into what makes a business great. They discuss crucial traits like sustainable sales growth and high returns on capital. Learn how to build conviction amidst market volatility, the importance of analyzing management quality, and the pitfalls of behavioral mistakes. They also explore the significance of owner earnings and how to navigate fast-changing industries while maintaining investment discipline.

Bill Bengen, a retirement researcher known for creating the original 4% withdrawal rule, shares his insights on retirement planning. He discusses how his perspective has shifted, suggesting retirees may safely withdraw closer to 4.7%. Bengen explores the significance of diversification, the U-shaped equity glide path, and the implications of inflation on withdrawal rates. He also highlights the importance of enjoying retirement and shares strategies for mitigating sequence-of-returns risk. His personal journey and evolved thinking make this conversation both informative and inspiring.

Michael Mauboussin, a prominent investment strategist and author, shares his insights on overlooked but vital investing concepts. He highlights the importance of base rates for making grounded decisions in investing and life. Mauboussin explains his expectations investing framework, emphasizing how to reverse-engineer stock prices. The discussion also delves into the paradox of skill, detailing how increasing skills can heighten the role of luck. Listeners gain practical takeaways applicable across various fields, showcasing how to make more informed and rational choices.

Rupert Mitchell, founder of Blind Squirrel Macro, dives into the transformative landscape of China’s markets. He reveals insights from his recent trip, highlighting an 8–10 year bull market potential fueled by industrial recovery and favorable valuations. Rupert addresses the risks posed by AI-driven CapEx from the Mag 7 and contrasts U.S. markets with international equities. He also discusses emerging opportunities in Africa and Uzbekistan, alongside his unique ‘Bushy’ defensive portfolio positioning and insights on the evolving credit landscape.

Richard Bernstein, CIO and CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors and a portfolio manager with decades of experience, explores the current speculative market landscape. He argues that while we are in a highly speculative environment, unique opportunities exist for patient investors. Bernstein delves into profit cycles versus economic cycles and highlights the potential resurgence of non-U.S. quality stocks. He also discusses the pitfalls of investor behavior, inflation dynamics, and the resurgence of value investing as well as long-term trends like deindustrialization.

Victor Haghani, founder of Elm Wealth and former LTCM partner, shares insights from his shift to simple, evidence-based investing. He emphasizes the importance of position sizing alongside asset selection, and treats risk as a cost for optimal allocation. Haghani discusses the CAPE and P-CAPE frameworks, and critiques the static strategies like the 60/40 portfolio for ignoring expected returns. He warns against buybacks driving equity prices and advocates for dynamic asset allocation, providing key lessons for individual investors.

Jim Paulsen, a veteran market strategist known for his data-driven insights, dives into the evolving landscape of market valuations. He highlights how pervasive market fears, shifts in liquidity, and a drop in recession frequency are impacting investor sentiment and long-term returns. Paulsen discusses the historical changes in the CAPE ratio and notes that high profitability and productivity justify current valuations. He also emphasizes that while tech remains expensive, many sectors are still undervalued, setting the stage for potential growth.

Cem Karsan, Founder and CIO of Kai Volatility Advisors, shares his insights on the current market landscape. He argues we are in a bubble, driven more by liquidity than fundamentals, with volatility influenced by options trading. Cem highlights the potential of AI investments to sustain this cycle while cautioning about tail risks from geopolitical tensions. He also emphasizes the need for true diversification beyond traditional portfolios and warns of common mistakes investors make with options. Get ready for a deep dive into market dynamics!

Kai Wu, a researcher at Sparkline Capital, explores the booming AI infrastructure investment in this insightful discussion. He draws parallels between AI spending and historic tech bubbles, highlighting the massive revenue growth needed to justify trillions in CapEx. Wu reveals risks of overinvestment, branding the situation a 'prisoner’s dilemma' for big tech. He advises investors to watch for supply-side risks and find value in less capital-intensive opportunities, while contrasting infrastructure-heavy firms with agile early adopters across various industries.