Excess Returns

Kris Sidial, Co-CIO and founder of Ambrus Group, specializes in volatility trading strategies, while Brent Kochuba provides vital market insights. Together, they discuss the underperformance of tail risk funds and the critical need for robust volatility strategies. They explore market liquidity’s fragility, retail's surprising role in recent market moves, and the psychological traps that hinder effective trading. Additionally, they analyze how volatility may remain elevated longer than anticipated, unraveling the complexities behind current market dynamics.

Cameron Dawson, the CIO of NewEdge Wealth, provides sharp macro insights and investment strategies. He discusses the precarious position investors face with tariffs potentially leading to a recession. Dawson highlights the potential economic fallout from 145% tariffs on China and explores the shifting dynamics of treasury demand in a capital account war. He also emphasizes strategies like favoring value stocks over growth, the importance of quality investments, and effective rebalancing techniques amid market chaos.

In this conversation, Travis Prentice from Informed Momentum Company shares his nearly three decades of expertise in momentum investing. He clarifies the distinction between momentum and growth investing and dispels common myths surrounding momentum strategies. Listeners learn about the mechanics of cross-sectional momentum, how to optimize portfolios with dynamic versus continuous momentum, and the impact of passive investing on stock valuations. Travis also discusses risk management in momentum investing and the advantages of combining it with other factors for better performance.

Jared Dillian, the contrarian economist behind the Daily Dirt Nap newsletter and host of the Macro Dirt Podcast, dives deep into the current market landscape. He argues that tariffs may actually be deflationary, challenges the notion of a strong dollar in the long run, and shares insights on the shift towards international stocks. Dillian also discusses his unique investment strategy—an 'Awesome Portfolio'—and the risks of protectionism while highlighting the evolving importance of social media in gauging market sentiment.

When we started Excess Returns, we wanted to come up with one way to boil down the best advice from the experts we have interviewed into one simple question. That led us to create a standard closing question that we ask all of our guests, “Based on your experience in the markets, if you could teach one lesson to your average investor, what would that be?”.Over the history of the podcast, we have asked that question to close to 200 guests ranging from great investors to academic experts to options and macro traders. In this episode, we share the answers from our 50 most popular guests all in one episode. Featured guests include Liz Ann Sonders, Cliff Asness, Guy Spier, Michael Mauboussin, Mike Green, Cem Karsan, Chris Davis, Aswath Damodaran, Jack Schwager, Rick Ferri and many others. Topics Covered:The fundamental purpose of investing: preserving and growing wealth rather than getting rich quickThe importance of base rates in investment decisionsPortfolio monitoring frequency and its impact on investment psychologyViewing stocks as ownership in actual businesses rather than trading vehiclesThe value of patience, humility, and self-forgiveness in the investment processDiversification across asset classes, strategies, and time framesThe benefits of simplicity in investment approachesThe psychological challenges of investing and how to overcome themCompounding as a fundamental wealth-building toolThe danger of performance chasing and overconfidenceThe value of a rules-based investment process

In this engaging conversation, Andrew Cohen, a former Goldman Sachs trader turned finance professor, shares his harrowing experience of working at Madoff’s firm and being caught in the largest Ponzi scheme in history. He discusses the intense trading culture and the advanced technology of the era, as well as his interactions with Madoff's sons. Andrew reflects on the trauma of losing everything and the journey to rebuild his life in academia, offering valuable lessons on risk management and the importance of ethics in finance.

Richard Bernstein, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors, shares his insights on today's economic challenges. He discusses the alarming narrowness of recent markets, dubbing it the most constricted since the Great Depression. Bernstein highlights the negative consumer impact of tariffs and argues for a shift towards value investing. He expresses skepticism about cryptocurrencies and critiques the limitations of index funds. Additionally, he emphasizes gold's role as a hedge against uncertainty and advises sticking to fundamentals for long-term wealth.

Jim Paulsen, Chief Investment Strategist at Paulsen Perspectives, shares his decades of expertise on navigating turbulent markets. He discusses how tariffs may not be as inflationary as believed and suggests a weaker dollar could enhance trade competitiveness. Paulsen critiques Federal Reserve policies for their inaction amid deflation risks and emphasizes the importance of emotional discipline for investors. He highlights the resilience of the private sector and offers practical investment strategies, focusing on long-term thinking amidst current market volatility.

Join investment expert Chris Mayer, author of '100 Baggers,' and co-host Bogumil Baranowski as they uncover the secrets to finding future 100-bagger stocks. They dive into the role of AI in investment opportunities and the critical mindset for thriving amidst market volatility. Explore the merits of concentrated investing, the influence of CEOs on company performance, and timeless principles that emphasize patience and a long-term approach. This conversation is packed with valuable insights for both seasoned investors and newcomers.

Rick Ferri, a champion of low-cost, evidence-based investing, shares his expertise on navigating market volatility. He emphasizes the power of simplicity in investing and the importance of maintaining a steady asset allocation. Ferri debunks the myth of the 'dead' 60/40 portfolio and highlights the significance of personal inflation rates. He also discusses the complexities of direct indexing, the challenges of active management, and the benefits of international diversification. This conversation offers essential strategies for both novice and seasoned investors.