Excess Returns

Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and macro trader focused on precious metals and regime shifts, explains why loss of institutional trust is reshaping markets. He connects inflation, central bank credibility, and geopolitics to rising demand for gold and miners. He also covers the move from traditional portfolios to real assets, deglobalization, and where commodities and cyclicals may lead next.

Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck and longtime ETF and macro strategist, offers a big-picture take on markets. He discusses why 2026 may be clearer for investors. Conversations cover AI-driven compute demand and semiconductor winners. He explains gold’s renewed role in a multipolar world, the risks of putting illiquid assets in daily-liquid vehicles, and why thinking in decades boosts conviction.

Daryl Fairweather, Redfin chief economist and author of Hate the Game, explains the Great Housing Reset as a multi-year shift toward normalcy. She discusses mortgage rate dynamics, the inventory lock-in that keeps supply tight, regional winners and losers, climate and insurance risks, and how AI and policy reforms could reshape housing choices.

Rupert Mitchell, known as 'Blind Squirrel,' is a macro-focused investor and writer with expertise in emerging markets and commodities. He dives into the shifting global macro landscape, discussing why US equity leadership may be losing strength after a long run. He highlights opportunities in emerging markets, particularly in Latin America, driven by commodities rather than politics. Rupert also shares insights on China's unique market dynamics, emphasizing lower-beta investments and the technological advancements shaping the region.

Gary Mishuris, an MIT-trained investor and CIO of Silver Ring Value Partners, dives into the intricacies of value investing. He shares valuable lessons from his experiences with legends like Peter Lynch and explores the mispricing of Warner Bros. Discovery. Gary discusses how spin-offs can create hidden value and why understanding option use is crucial in investing. He also highlights the transformative role of AI in research, making a case for integrating new technologies without losing critical judgment.

Join Mike Green, Chief Investment Strategist at Simplify Asset Management, as he unpacks the complexities of passive investing. He reveals why index funds aren't truly passive and discusses the inelastic market hypothesis, showing how daily flows can dramatically affect prices. Green highlights the growing dominance of passive investments and the potential instability this creates in markets. He also shares insights on the impact of demographic shifts and AI on capital investments, raising crucial questions for future investors.

In this engaging conversation, Gene Munster, a seasoned venture investor, and Doug Clinton, co-founder of Intelligent Alpha, delve into the future of AI and technology. They argue that the AI bull market has plenty of room to grow, despite skeptics. Key insights include predictions of NASDAQ returns post-2026, the potential outperformance of small-cap tech, and expected surges in AI capital spending. The duo also explores Apple’s evolving AI strategy and the intense competition among tech giants, highlighting the transformative impact of AI on market dynamics.

Aswath Damodaran, a finance professor and expert on valuation, discusses his investing philosophy amid rising AI market risks. He emphasizes the importance of buying undervalued stocks over merely great narratives. Damodaran shares his portfolio management strategies, including diversification and selling discipline. He predicts AI could create a bubble and warns about the impact on profit margins. The conversation also covers company lifecycles and the risks of entanglement in the AI ecosystem, providing valuable insights for discerning investors.

Liz Ann Sonders, the Chief Investment Strategist known for her insights into macroeconomics, dives into the evolving economic landscape as we approach 2026. She discusses how instability, rather than uncertainty, shapes investor behavior, and the implications for the labor market and inflation dynamics. Sonders highlights the K-shaped economy, the shifting correlation between stocks and bonds, and the significant impact of AI on productivity and capital spending. Her analysis reveals how we might need to rethink diversification and market positioning in this new, volatile era.

Grant Williams, an investment commentator and expert in macroeconomics, discusses the 'hundred year pivot,' highlighting a seismic shift in the global financial landscape. He explains the erosion of trust in institutions and how historical events like the 2008 crisis have reshaped investor behavior. Williams explores the rising importance of commodities and real assets in a deglobalizing world, and he examines the implications of AI on capital allocation. His insights provide a thought-provoking perspective on navigating a future marked by uncertainty and volatility.