Excess Returns

Nancy Davis, founder and CIO of Quadratic Capital Management, shares her expertise on fixed-income strategies. She explains how most investors are unknowingly short volatility, impacting their bond portfolios. Nancy delves into the unique structure of her ETFs, IVOL and BNDD, which aim to hedge against inflation and interest-rate shifts. She critiques traditional inflation hedges like gold and highlights alternative signals for gauging inflation expectations. Tune in for eye-opening insights on managing hidden risks in conventional investments.

In this engaging conversation, Meb Faber, an investment manager and author, explores the current landscape of high U.S. valuations and their implications for future returns. He emphasizes the importance of diversification, including international value stocks and real assets, as well as the role of trend following and managed futures as diversifiers. Meb also delves into AI's potential in investing, behavioral traps around performance chasing, and the long-term resilience of value investing. Don't miss his insights from 400 years of market history and a preview of his upcoming book, Time Billionaires.

Eric Freedman, Chief Investment Officer at U.S. Bank Wealth, shares his data-driven approach to investing and why he maintains optimism about the U.S. economy. He discusses the importance of controlling what you can in investment decisions and how consumer resilience has impacted forecasts. Freedman also tackles inflation trends, the Fed's challenges, and the significance of global diversification. Additionally, he explores the reality of artificial intelligence in investment and advises on risk management and disciplined investing.

Rick Ferri, founder of Ferri Investment Solutions and host of the Bogleheads on Investing podcast, shares invaluable insights on index investing. He discusses the four stages of an index investor's education, from confusion to clarity. Rick highlights why macro forecasting often fails and emphasizes the importance of simplicity in portfolio management. He advocates for international diversification and explains how behavioral discipline outweighs complex strategies. Lastly, he offers sage advice for young investors to embrace low-cost indexing and stay disciplined.

Remi Tetot, known as “The Mad King,” is a macro strategist who dives into the evolving market landscape shaped by liquidity and fiscal dominance. He discusses how liquidity has overtaken fundamentals, the desynchronized global economic cycles, and housing's potential to restart the business cycle. Remi also explores crypto's maturation, why narratives now drive asset prices, and the implications of AI on human capital. He emphasizes the need for investors to adapt to these shifts while staying mindful of behavioral trends.

Larry Swedroe, an expert in evidence-based investing and author, delves into the current landscape of investing. He reveals that only 4% of stocks account for long-term equity returns and discusses the significant risks of tariffs and immigration on inflation. Swedroe cautions against overconfidence in stock selection, using past tech booms as a warning. He advocates for building anti-fragile portfolios and offers insights on AI's uncertain impact on productivity. Overall, he emphasizes the necessity of diversification and understanding market dynamics.

Adam Parker, Founder and CEO of Trivariate/Trivector Research and a former Morgan Stanley strategist, dives into the dynamics of modern markets. He argues for a long-term bullish outlook on U.S. equities, predicting the S&P 500 may hit 10,000 by 2030. Discussing major risks, he highlights hyperscaler capital expenditures and AI-driven unemployment. Parker contrasts today’s market with the dot-com bubble, emphasizing why traditional valuation methods now fail. He emphasizes structural advantages in U.S. innovation and practical advice for long-term investors.

Ben Hunt, founder of Epsilon Theory and Persean, dives into the hidden perils of private credit and its alarming parallels to the shadow banking system that sparked the 2008 crisis. He likens financial betrayals to Tessio from The Godfather, highlighting how broken trust can trigger systemic crises. The discussion reveals risks tied to opacity and hidden leverage, emphasizing how small defaults can cascade into larger issues. Ben also introduces innovative narrative-tracking tools that offer real-time insights into market dynamics and evolving investor behavior.

Gene Munster, a veteran tech investor, and Doug Clinton, founder of Intelligent Alpha, dive into AI's booming potential. They discuss why AI is in the early stages of a bull market and its transformative effects on jobs and markets. Topics include the impact of AI on corporate profitability, Doug's unique framework for future job roles, and the advantages of AI in portfolio management. They also explore competing AI model providers, energy considerations for AI growth, and the long-term prospects for tech giants like Apple and Tesla.

Tobias Carlisle, founder of Acquirers Fund and author of The Acquirer's Multiple, delves into the rich interplay between investing and the timeless strategies of Sun Tzu. He highlights how Buffett’s acquisitions, like General Re and his massive stake in Apple, exemplify victory without conflict. The discussion reveals key concepts like via negativa—succeeding by avoiding mistakes—and the importance of temperament over intellect. Carlisle also emphasizes simplicity in investing, the merit of patience, and Buffett's strategic approach to the Japanese market.