Excess Returns

Discover timeless investing wisdom from over 50 seasoned investors! They emphasize that preserving wealth is more crucial than chasing riches. Learn the importance of treating stocks as businesses and the dangers of performance chasing. Patience and long-term thinking take center stage, alongside the virtues of simplicity and discipline. Diversification across various economic conditions is critical, while emotional self-awareness can keep you grounded. Understand that investing is not about timing the market, but about maintaining a resilient and adaptable portfolio.

Ben Hunt, founder of Epsilon Theory, dives deep into his analysis of the AI narrative shift from optimism to a looming national security crisis. He discusses how the massive capital expenditures on AI are straining resources and echoing WWII mobilization. Ben warns of the impending consumer squeeze, rising prices, and the risk of stagflation as AI replaces jobs. He proposes a three-policy plan focusing on reshoring, expanding energy, and electricity caps to navigate this challenge. The conversation highlights the urgent need for public awareness and political engagement around these issues.

Louis-Vincent Gave, founder of Gavekal Research and a macroeconomic investor, sheds light on China’s impressive economic transformation. He discusses why Western views misjudge China’s growth model and how the country has deftly responded to US pressures like the semiconductor embargo. Gave explores China's rapid ascent in engineering and EV dominance, contrasts its open-source AI approach with the US, and argues that fears surrounding Taiwan are overblown. He also predicts a multi-year bull market for China, highlighting the undervalued renminbi as a key investment consideration.

In this insightful discussion, Mary Ann Bartels, Chief Investment Strategist at Sanctuary Wealth, shares her optimistic 2026 outlook for the S&P 500, forecasting a continuing secular bull market. She highlights the role of technology and AI in driving productivity and profits, while cautioning about potential market risks and corrections. Bartels also argues for the benefits of diversifying into international stocks and gold, emphasizing that investor skepticism indicates we’re not in a bubble yet. Her advice for younger investors includes focusing on compounding and long-term strategies.

In this enlightening discussion, Carl Kaufman, Co-President and Co-CIO of Osterweis Capital Management, shares his extensive expertise in fixed income investing. He dives into the complex dynamics of the bond market, outlining how credit and interest rate cycles can influence investor outcomes. Carl emphasizes the shifting credit quality landscape and why some high-yield segments may be more resilient than perceived. He also warns of potential risks in the AI Capex boom and discusses the importance of active management in navigating bond investments.

Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates, shares his insights on market bubbles, emphasizing how narrative drives pricing and cautioning against shorting them. He draws parallels between the current AI-driven market and the dot-com era, highlighting practical strategies for concerned investors, like diversification and focusing on value stocks. Arnott also discusses the challenges of AI monetization, the importance of historical context in investment strategies, and his preference for emerging market opportunities and fundamental indexing over traditional methods.

The discussion kicks off with a deep dive into financial nihilism, sparked by Robinhood's bold cash delivery claims. The hosts tackle sports betting's legality and its societal impact while raising questions about market regulations. Generational perceptions of wealth highlight a troubling disconnect regarding asset values, particularly in housing. They also critique tech monopolies that drive underinvestment in crucial sectors. The conversation closes with ideas on countering nihilism through personal traditions, underscoring the importance of meaningful community.

Brent Kachuba, founder of SpotGamma, dives into the intricate world of options flows and their impact on market movements. He discusses how daily market shifts are increasingly influenced by options trading and the current volatility landscape. The conversation touches on the disconnect between high market levels and underlying investor unease, parallels to the dot-com era, and how pivotal events like NVIDIA's earnings could sway market sentiment. Brent also explains concepts like negative gamma and the dynamics of monthly options expirations, shedding light on the current market stress.

Bob Elliott, Founder/CEO of Unlimited and expert in macroeconomics and ETF strategies, shares insights on the current economic landscape. He discusses the late-cycle economy and the disconnect between market optimism and real-world data. Elliott reveals how AI spending isn’t translating to economic gains yet, questioning the returns on significant investments in the tech sector. He also warns of risks in private markets and highlights new hedge-fund-style ETFs that aim to provide alpha at lower costs, utilizing innovative replication strategies.

Chris Mayer, an investor and author behind the '100 Bagger' concept, and Robert Hagstrom, a portfolio manager focused on long-term investing, dive into what makes a business great. They discuss crucial traits like sustainable sales growth and high returns on capital. Learn how to build conviction amidst market volatility, the importance of analyzing management quality, and the pitfalls of behavioral mistakes. They also explore the significance of owner earnings and how to navigate fast-changing industries while maintaining investment discipline.