Excess Returns

Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, shares her expertise in technical analysis. She decodes the S&P 500's current strong uptrend and discusses new DeMark sell signals, indicating potential market consolidation. Katie emphasizes selectivity in investing, particularly in healthcare and utilities, while analyzing the implications of seasonality and market breadth. She also explores trends in gold, oil, Treasury yields, and the evolving correlation between bonds and equities, offering valuable insights for navigating year-end investments.

Rob Thummel, a senior investment professional at Tortoise Capital with decades of energy expertise, discusses why electricity is becoming the new oil. He highlights how AI is driving unprecedented electricity demand, predicting a future need equivalent to adding three Japan-sized energy capacities by 2050. Thummel explores the roles of natural gas, renewables, and the resurgence of nuclear energy. He also shares insights on energy infrastructure's stability and why it's a promising area for investors amid today's shifting energy landscape.

In this discussion, investor and author Bogumil Baranowski delves into the evolution of value investing, sharing wisdom rooted in the lessons of legends like Warren Buffett and Ben Graham. He outlines three phases of investment strategy: moving from seeking cheap stocks to recognizing the value of exceptional opportunities. Bogumil highlights the importance of patience and conviction, addresses the consequences of focusing too much on price over value, and touches on the family legacy of wealth stewardship. His insights inspire a reevaluation of what it means to invest wisely.

In a fascinating discussion, Matt Zenz, founder of Longview Research Partners and a seasoned investment expert, dives into the intricacies of factor investing. He shares lessons from his engineering background and his tenure at DFA, emphasizing the importance of evidence-based strategies. Matt explores the roles of value, momentum, and size in portfolios, and critiques large-cap tech dominance. He also discusses the potential of AI in investing and advocates for a low-cost, diversified approach for average investors while warning against the allure of overly complex strategies.

In a fascinating discussion, Noel Smith, co-founder and CIO of Convex Asset Management, shares his unique journey from biochemistry and military service to becoming a volatility trading expert. He explains why volatility is the best market informant, its role in regime shift models, and the strategic use of options for income. Noel delves into dynamic put-spread strategies, the impact of zero DTE options, and the nuances of dispersion trading. His insights on tail hedging and the importance of adapting quickly in trading provide invaluable lessons for investors.

In a captivating discussion, Ben Carlson, Director at Ritholtz Wealth Management and author of A Wealth of Common Sense, explores the complexities of today's market valuations. He highlights how changing market structures and the dominance of mega-cap tech stocks complicate traditional metrics. Delving into AI's impact on investing and the possible emergence of a bubble, Carlson shares valuable lessons from past market cycles, emphasizing the importance of diversification and setting realistic return expectations.

Jim Paulsen, a veteran market strategist and author of Paulsen Perspectives, shares his deep insights on the current economic landscape. He discusses the critical role of the job market in Fed decisions and the unusual bull market amidst low investor confidence. Paulsen highlights how recent Fed easing may affect market dynamics and discusses new era firms driving narrow market leadership. He also examines the implications of inflation, yields, and investor behavior, revealing how policy shifts could foster broader market participation and revive 'animal spirits'.

In this discussion, John Tinsman, the portfolio manager of the AOT Growth and Innovation ETF, shares insights from his investing journey, focusing on low marginal cost businesses. He emphasizes the transformative power of AI in enhancing profitability and software development. John explains the concept of digital toll booths as a future model for software, and he contrasts today’s profitable tech firms with the dot-com era. He also shares his strategies for portfolio construction, advocating for large-cap growth technology as a sustainable investment choice.

In this engaging discussion, Joseph Shaposhnik, founder of Rainwater Equity and former TCW portfolio manager, reveals his investment philosophy emphasizing recurring-revenue businesses and the importance of management quality. He shares insights on learning from legends like Warren Buffett and Bill Miller, while dissecting red flags in management practices. Joseph also dives into the rationale for maintaining concentrated portfolios, disciplined selling strategies, and the impact of passive investing in today’s market. A must-listen for aspiring investors!

Sam Ro, a financial writer and author of '10 Stock Market Truths,' joins the discussion to challenge common market misconceptions. He highlights why long-term investing triumphs over short-term volatility and debunks the myth of average returns. Ro emphasizes the significance of earnings as a key driver of stock prices and warns about unrecognized risks. He also explores the dual nature of AI in markets and clarifies that stock market trends don't always reflect the broader economy. Tune in for valuable insights to navigate today's market!