Excess Returns The Case for a Broadening Bull Market | Jim Paulsen
Jul 25, 2025
In this engaging discussion, investment strategist Jim Paulsen shares his insights into the current economic landscape. He argues that the private sector may be more resilient than expected, suggesting a recession isn't imminent. Paulsen analyzes the impact of tariffs on consumer spending, highlights a productivity boom driven by technology, and questions the stagnation of corporate dividends despite a bull market. With data-driven clarity, he navigates through political pressures on the Federal Reserve and the market's potential for broader growth.
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Private Sector Resilience Reduces Recession Risk
- The private sector is financially resilient, with low consumer debt and strong corporate balance sheets.
- This makes a recession unlikely despite slow growth and economic pessimism.
Tariffs Contract Growth, Not Inflation
- Tariffs act like taxes, contracting economic growth rather than driving inflation.
- Tariffs' inflationary effects are offset by disinflation in the larger service sector.
Tech Productivity Surges Despite Flat Employment
- Technology firms' employment has been flat despite soaring market value.
- Productivity gains stem from tech replacing workers and improving output without hiring.