Darius Dale on the Fourth Turning, Fiscal Dominance, and the Case for a Melt-Up

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Jul 29, 2025

Macro strategist Darius Dale, from 42 Macro, dives into the significant shifts affecting today's markets. He discusses the Fourth Turning's implications on fiscal dominance and income inequality. Dale explains his innovative market regime model, Dr. Mo, which adapts to risk effectively. With insights on inflation, tariffs, and AI, he outlines the KISS portfolio strategy that has outperformed the traditional 60/40 model. Despite chaos, Dale maintains a structurally bullish long-term outlook, urging both retail and institutional investors to navigate these turbulent times wisely.

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INSIGHT

Impact of the Fourth Turning

The Fourth Turning triggers political and economic upheaval with fiscal dominance and monetary debasement.
It causes income inequality, accelerated inflation, and geopolitical tensions historically ending in war.

INSIGHT

Systematic Market Regime Tracking

42 Macro's regime now-casting system uses volatility-adjusted momentum across 42 markets to identify risk-on or risk-off regimes.
Volatility signals generally lead momentum, helping investors stay ahead of market risk changes.

ANECDOTE

2023 Bullish Model Shift Example

In early 2023, the model shifted from bearish to bullish after detecting a risk-on regime around early April.
This transition guided raising cash early and then methodically buying back into equities and bitcoin.

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Macro strategist Darius Dale returns to Excess Returns with a deep dive into the seismic shifts shaping markets today. From the implications of the Fourth Turning to the systemic risks of fiscal dominance, Dale shares how he’s helping investors stay on the right side of market risk using quantitative tools and macro insights from 42 Macro. This episode covers everything from inflation, tariffs, and AI to a systematic framework for navigating regime change in real time. Whether you're a retail investor or an institutional pro, this conversation is packed with insights that matter.

🔍 In This Episode:

The Fourth Turning’s impact on markets and society
Why inflation, income inequality, and geopolitical turmoil are converging
How Darius's market regime model (Dr. Mo) systematically adapts to risk
What the “KISS” model portfolio is—and how it outperforms 60/40
Why recession models failed and how Darius sees the economy now
The overlooked growth shock from policy—not just tariffs
How AI may shift the economic power structure even more dramatically
Why he believes the long-term outlook is structurally bullish (despite the chaos)

⏱️ Timestamps:
00:00 – Opening macro warning and Fourth Turning setup
02:44 – Darius on working with Neil Howe and implications of generational shifts
04:13 – How the Fourth Turning creates fiscal dominance and financial repression
08:21 – Explaining the market regime system and Dr. Mo
14:33 – What institutions get wrong and how volatility front-runs momentum
17:13 – The origin of 42 Macro and mission to democratize institutional-grade tools
18:35 – Case study: When the model turned bullish in April
21:23 – Why tariffs don’t derail the model
23:41 – Why recession signals failed & how Dale reads the cycle differently
30:13 – Why Dale is still pounding the table on U.S. resilience
35:11 – Paradigm A → B → C: the evolution of economic policy under pressure
43:49 – Will AI fuel an i-shaped economy? Or something better?
50:28 – Inside the “KISS” model portfolio and its 25% average annual return

🔗 Learn more at 42macro.com
📊 Follow Darius Dale on X: @42macroDDale