Excess Returns The 100 Year Thinkers | Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom on Finding the Next Great Compounders
74 snips
Oct 13, 2025 
Robert G. Hagstrom, CIO of Equity Compass and author, teams up with Chris Mayer, investor and founder of Woodlock House Family Capital, to explore the nuances of long-term investing. They discuss the risks of concentrated portfolios and why exclusionary rules are vital. The duo also analyzes mega-cap tech companies' chances of becoming 100-baggers and critiques modern private equity. They emphasize the importance of economic fundamentals in navigating volatility and argue for redefined success metrics beyond just beating benchmarks.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Rules For True Concentration
- Run a concentrated portfolio only if you exclude inherently risky business types like highly leveraged banks and capital-dependent REITs.
- Limit top position sizes (Chris uses ~8%) and ensure each holding meets strict qualifications before making big bets.
Index Weighting Mirrors Economics
- Cap-weighted indices concentrate returns where earnings growth concentrated, so top stocks drove overall market gains.
- Equal-weighted indexes would reduce controversy but the economics of winners still explain performance.
Pick The Right Benchmark
- Choose the benchmark that matches your investor perspective; equal-weight may better measure manager skill than cap-weight.
- Don't set beating the S&P as your starting goal; design a process that generates sustainable results.
