Bloomberg Surveillance

Richard Clarida, former Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve and economic advisor at PIMCO, delves into the current U.S. economy, discussing the implications of recent gold surges and the Fed's challenges with labor market risks versus inflation. Meanwhile, Suzy Welch, NYU Stern professor and author, explores the generational values of Gen Z in the workforce, highlighting their focus on self-care and authenticity versus traditional employer priorities, and debating whether companies must adapt or if Gen Z should alter their expectations.

The discussion kicks off with Dell's positive revenue outlook, sparking a market rally. Both guests tackle the Buy America initiative and the controversies surrounding AI investments. Barry Ritholtz warns of the risks tied to AI hype and stresses that true equity growth relies on solid earnings. Insights into upcoming earnings seasons and labor market dynamics reveal potential challenges and trends, including a projected GDP slowdown. Emphasizing humility, they highlight the importance of navigating complex market signals with care.

R Kipp deVeer, Co-President and Partner at Ares Management, shares insights on private asset management and digital infrastructure. He highlights Ares’ strategic shift from lending to development while emphasizing the importance of selective building to prevent overcapacity. DeVeer discusses the growing access to private assets in retirement accounts and the U.S. remaining a top destination for investments. He also notes the recovery of real asset transactions, expressing optimism despite potential inflation challenges.

Jeffrey Rosenberg, Senior Portfolio Manager at BlackRock, dives into the intricacies of fixed income versus equity returns. He explains how the shift in macro conditions is steering investors towards alternatives like gold and Bitcoin amid political uncertainties. Rosenberg also sheds light on liquid alternatives and defensive alpha strategies, offering insights on risk allocation and market responses to recessions. Additionally, he discusses the implications of the ongoing government shutdown for the economy, making for a compelling conversation on current market dynamics.

The discussion kicks off with a chaotic market landscape, setting the stage for deep insights. Jordan Rochester reveals how Japan's demographic issues and growing foreign workforce are reshaping its economy. He also shares the view that a weaker yen could lead to significant investment opportunities. Meanwhile, Gautam Mukunda navigates the challenges faced by centrist politicians in today's polarized environment. The balancing act of opposing Trump while maintaining moderate policies adds another layer of complexity to their political narratives.

Jordan Rochester, Head of FICC Strategy at Mizuho, analyzes the implications of Sanae Takaichi's expected rise as Japan's next prime minister and its potential impact on financial markets. Paul Donovan, Chief Economist at UBS, discusses how the U.S. government shutdown affects economic data reliability and the risks of permanent federal layoffs. Jay Goldberg, Senior Analyst at Seaport Research Partners, critiques the current AI-driven market enthusiasm, suggesting it may be bubble-like and highlighting the constraints on investment in AI infrastructure.

Jordan Rochester, Head of FICC Strategy EMEA at Mizuho, dives into the market impacts of political shifts in Japan and France. He predicts that a potential premiership from Sanae Takaichi could strengthen the yen while discussing the bond market's response to foreign demand. Curtis Sliwa, the Republican mayoral candidate in NYC, opens up about his grassroots campaign strategies and fiscal priorities, emphasizing his outreach to minority communities and plans to address city safety and homelessness.

Tom dives into the impact of the recent Taylor Swift drop, sharing listener reactions and guest insights on the event. Claudia Sahm discusses the challenges posed by the absence of September jobs data due to the government shutdown, emphasizing its effects on labor market visibility. Meanwhile, Amy Wu Silverman explores how market hedging has evolved post-COVID, highlighting shifts in correlations and strategies following changes in major tech stocks. A mix of fun and serious topics keeps the conversation engaging!

Frances Donald, Chief Economist at RBC, shares insights on the US economy, revealing how a government shutdown complicates data accuracy and impacts Fed decisions. She highlights sector-specific indicators for understanding a uniquely structured labor market. Jeffrey Rosenberg from BlackRock discusses the bond market's volatility and the importance of alternative data points like wage scrapes when official figures are unreliable. Together, they navigate the complexities of economic trends and the implications of fiscal uncertainties.

Amy Wu Silverman, Head of Derivatives Strategy at RBC, delves into market hedging behaviors amid low volatility and the implications of a government shutdown on market dynamics. Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, highlights concerns over missing jobs data and its effects on economic assessments, exploring labor supply impacts and inflation monitoring. Priya Misra from J.P. Morgan discusses the Fed's reliance on alternative indicators and the potential for interest rate cuts as economic uncertainty looms over fixed-income markets.