Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 3rd, 2025
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Oct 3, 2025 Frances Donald, Chief Economist at RBC, shares insights on the US economy, revealing how a government shutdown complicates data accuracy and impacts Fed decisions. She highlights sector-specific indicators for understanding a uniquely structured labor market. Jeffrey Rosenberg from BlackRock discusses the bond market's volatility and the importance of alternative data points like wage scrapes when official figures are unreliable. Together, they navigate the complexities of economic trends and the implications of fiscal uncertainties.
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Shutdown Cuts Data, Raises Fed Uncertainty
- The government shutdown will reduce data visibility and raise uncertainty for policymakers and markets.
- Frances Donald warns that missing a month of data makes it harder to know the Fed's definitive path.
Prioritize Trend And Bottom-Up Analysis
- Focus on big-picture trends and bottom-up, sector-level analysis rather than month-to-month swings.
- Use alternative indicators like LinkedIn postings and notices to gauge month-to-month activity.
Fiscal Politics Overtake Monetary Policy
- The economy is becoming less sensitive to monetary policy and more driven by fiscal politics.
- Frances Donald sees acrimonious Washington shifting the business-cycle driver from the Fed to fiscal spending and deficits.