Bloomberg Surveillance Markets Push Forward without Jobs Data
15 snips
Oct 3, 2025 
Amy Wu Silverman, Head of Derivatives Strategy at RBC, delves into market hedging behaviors amid low volatility and the implications of a government shutdown on market dynamics. Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, highlights concerns over missing jobs data and its effects on economic assessments, exploring labor supply impacts and inflation monitoring. Priya Misra from J.P. Morgan discusses the Fed's reliance on alternative indicators and the potential for interest rate cuts as economic uncertainty looms over fixed-income markets.
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Reluctant Rally Driven By Right‑Tail Risk
- Market hedges remained unmonetized as prices climbed, creating a ‘reluctant rally’ with low skew and low fear in VIX.
- Traders view right-tail risk (concentration in MAG-7) as the main concern rather than left-tail crash risk.
Plan For Buying The Dip
- Consider buying the dip after a 5–10% drawdown since investors expect to buy weakness.
- Explore alternative hedges like gold calls that feel less correlated to concentrated equity risk.
MAG‑7 Skew Now Moves The Index
- MAG‑7 option demand inverted skew, driving index cross‑moments and dominating index behavior.
- Watching MAG‑7 cross moments is critical because they materially shape index risk and skew.
