Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors and creator of the Sahm Rule, delves into the nuances of this economic indicator, known for predicting recessions based on unemployment rates. She discusses the current economic climate, examining why rising unemployment could signal a recession, but warns that the unique circumstances might render traditional metrics misleading. Sahm emphasizes the need for the Federal Reserve to remain vigilant, regardless of the recession debate, as labor market dynamics shift and demand fluctuates.

Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors and Founder of Sahm Consulting, brings her expertise to discuss the Sahm Rule, a crucial economic indicator for predicting recessions based on unemployment rates. She dives into how this rule is vital amid the current stock market volatility, particularly after recent trends in the AI sector and the Yen-Carry trade. The conversation also touches on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies and the behaviors of investors in an uncertain economic landscape.

JP Morgan's Thomas Kennedy predicts a growth slowdown in the US due to declining excess savings. Airbus Chief Commercial Officer Christian Scherer discusses the company's undersupplied situation post-pandemic. Sahm Consulting Founder Claudia Sahm warns of a looming recession in the US. Mercedes AMG Petronas CEO Toto Wolff previews the first-ever Las Vegas Grand Prix.

Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors and a former Federal Reserve economist, brings her keen insights on the 2025 economic landscape. She highlights trends in inflation, the resilience of the labor market, and the critical risks to economic growth. Discussions also touch on potential stagflation and the importance of consumer spending and fiscal policies. Sahm emphasizes addressing blind spots in economic predictions and hints at how health advancements might influence future productivity.

Claudia Sahm, an economist who developed the Sahm Rule, discusses vital economic indicators and current recession signals. She highlights how the pandemic and geopolitical tensions influence job market dynamics. The conversation emphasizes the importance of understanding unemployment rates and the Federal Reserve's role in managing inflation. Sahm advocates for improving financial literacy to navigate economic discourse and warns of potential downturns if timely interventions aren't made.

Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors and creator of the 'Sahm rule', joins Bill Dudley, former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, to tackle pressing economic concerns. They dissect rising unemployment rates and their implications for recession fears. The duo debates the complexities of economic indicators and the Fed's role in navigating potential downturns. Will current policies push the economy towards a recession, or are there signs of resilience? Their insights challenge conventional thinking and call for cautious interpretation of labor market trends.

Guests including Helane Becker, Lori Calvasina, Claudia Sahm, and Isaac Boltansky discuss topics such as airline industry confidence, sentiments around the equity market, December's jobs data, spending-cap deal in Congress, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's hospital stay, and a neutral outlook on Apple.

Claudia Sahm, an economist with New Century Advisors, shares her insights on the economic outlook for 2025. She discusses the upcoming December jobs report and its implications for decision-making. The conversation dives into the importance of real-time data in understanding the labor market and inflation amidst a massive economy. Sahm critiques the Federal Reserve's optimistic views, highlighting the complexities of unemployment stability and the uncertainties that lie ahead without significant policy changes.

Claudia Sahm, former Federal Reserve economist and creator of the Sahm Rule for forecasting recessions, speaks about using labor data to forecast recessions. She discusses the effectiveness of the Sahm Rule, automatic stimulus checks, post-pandemic shortages, and the unemployment rate as a warning sign for a possible recession.

In this special edition of Big Take DC, Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway discuss the reliability of data used by the Federal Reserve in decision-making. They interview ex-Fed economist Claudia Sahm to highlight concerns about flawed data and declining response rates in surveys. The podcast explores the impact of low response rates on data quality and the importance of rebuilding trust between the government and the people for accurate decision-making.