Claudia Sahm

Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors and creator of the Sahm Rule, dives into the complexities of current economic signals. She explains how the Sahm Rule suggests a recession might be looming due to rising unemployment, yet questions its reliability in today's unique circumstances. The discussion also explores the Federal Reserve's response and the intricate relationship between labor market trends and monetary policy. With an eye on fiscal strategies, they ponder the implications of these economic signals as election year dynamics unfold.

Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors and Founder of Sahm Consulting, brings her expertise to discuss the Sahm Rule, a crucial economic indicator for predicting recessions based on unemployment rates. She dives into how this rule is vital amid the current stock market volatility, particularly after recent trends in the AI sector and the Yen-Carry trade. The conversation also touches on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies and the behaviors of investors in an uncertain economic landscape.

JP Morgan's Thomas Kennedy predicts a growth slowdown in the US due to declining excess savings. Airbus Chief Commercial Officer Christian Scherer discusses the company's undersupplied situation post-pandemic. Sahm Consulting Founder Claudia Sahm warns of a looming recession in the US. Mercedes AMG Petronas CEO Toto Wolff previews the first-ever Las Vegas Grand Prix.

Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors and a former Federal Reserve economist, brings her keen insights on the 2025 economic landscape. She highlights trends in inflation, the resilience of the labor market, and the critical risks to economic growth. Discussions also touch on potential stagflation and the importance of consumer spending and fiscal policies. Sahm emphasizes addressing blind spots in economic predictions and hints at how health advancements might influence future productivity.

Claudia Sahm, an economist who developed the Sahm Rule, discusses vital economic indicators and current recession signals. She highlights how the pandemic and geopolitical tensions influence job market dynamics. The conversation emphasizes the importance of understanding unemployment rates and the Federal Reserve's role in managing inflation. Sahm advocates for improving financial literacy to navigate economic discourse and warns of potential downturns if timely interventions aren't made.

Guests including Helane Becker, Lori Calvasina, Claudia Sahm, and Isaac Boltansky discuss topics such as airline industry confidence, sentiments around the equity market, December's jobs data, spending-cap deal in Congress, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's hospital stay, and a neutral outlook on Apple.

Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, discusses the latest jobs report and its implications for the U.S. economy. Ellen Zentner, Chief Economic Strategist at Morgan Stanley, analyzes consumer behavior and the effects of economic policies. Rebecca Patterson, former Chief Investment Strategist at Bridgewater, shares insights on market trends and investment strategies. The conversation covers wage growth, inflation concerns, the impact of interest rate decisions, and the role of immigration in addressing labor shortages.

Claudia Sahm, an economist with New Century Advisors, shares her insights on the economic outlook for 2025. She discusses the upcoming December jobs report and its implications for decision-making. The conversation dives into the importance of real-time data in understanding the labor market and inflation amidst a massive economy. Sahm critiques the Federal Reserve's optimistic views, highlighting the complexities of unemployment stability and the uncertainties that lie ahead without significant policy changes.

Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors and creator of the 'Sahm rule' recession indicator, shares her insights on the economy's precarious state. She discusses the implications of rising unemployment rates and what they signal for recession fears. Sahm explains the nuances of her recession indicator, emphasizing its recent activation despite positive trends. The conversation also covers the Federal Reserve’s delicate balancing act in policy-making and its potential impact on economic stability. It's a deep dive into what’s really shaping the U.S. economy.

Claudia Sahm, former Federal Reserve economist and creator of the Sahm Rule for forecasting recessions, speaks about using labor data to forecast recessions. She discusses the effectiveness of the Sahm Rule, automatic stimulus checks, post-pandemic shortages, and the unemployment rate as a warning sign for a possible recession.