Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 6th, 2025
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Oct 6, 2025 
Jordan Rochester, Head of FICC Strategy at Mizuho, analyzes the implications of Sanae Takaichi's expected rise as Japan's next prime minister and its potential impact on financial markets. Paul Donovan, Chief Economist at UBS, discusses how the U.S. government shutdown affects economic data reliability and the risks of permanent federal layoffs. Jay Goldberg, Senior Analyst at Seaport Research Partners, critiques the current AI-driven market enthusiasm, suggesting it may be bubble-like and highlighting the constraints on investment in AI infrastructure.
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Japan's Politics Limit Big Economic Shifts
- Jordan Rochester warns Sanae Takaichi may promise looser policy but face constraints from weaker LDP factions and coalition politics.
- Markets priced weaker yen and JGB moves, but finance minister choice and coalitions could temper those moves.
BOJ Politics Can Delay But Not Block Hikes
- Jordan Rochester highlights BOJ political cooperation is written into its charter and shapes policy timing.
- Strong domestic data points toward eventual rate hikes despite political noise delaying the timetable.
Shutdown Makes A Foggy Economy Even Murkier
- Paul Donovan says missing official data worsens an already foggy picture after years of declining data quality.
- The shutdown risk is bigger if firings occur because lost jobs remove the normal rebound effect.