Paul Donovan

Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, shares insights on the recent shockwaves in financial markets caused by aggressive tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. He explains the financial burden these tariffs impose on U.S. consumers and their potential inflationary effects. Donovan also delves into how tariffs impact international trade dynamics, the complexities of modern supply chains, and the potential reactions from central banks. His expert analysis helps untangle the ongoing implications of these economic moves.

Join Paul Donovan, Chief Economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, as he demystifies economic trends with clarity. He discusses the ramifications of tariffs on inflation and consumer behavior, observing a notable shift from goods to experiences. The conversation delves into Japan's economic transformation due to demographic shifts and examines the reliability of economic data amid rising political polarization. Paul also touches on how the emotional dynamics between Republicans and Democrats impact consumer sentiment and economic outlooks.

Join Paul Donovan, Chief Economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, as he navigates the tangled web of economic data and public perception. He discusses the structural challenges facing Europe, questioning if current pessimism is exaggerated. Donovan highlights the impact of mismeasured data on our understanding of economic health, and examines the implications of U.S. tariffs on inflation and Federal Reserve policy. He also draws intriguing parallels between Europe’s economic trajectory and Japan’s stagnation, providing deep insights into global economic trends.

Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale Head of US Rates Strategy, sees a recession in the first half of 2024. Tom Forte, DA Davidson Sr. Research Analyst, discusses Apple as Citi sees another 30% upside. Paul Donovan, UBS Global Wealth Management Chief Economist, says we're seeing disinflation. Max Kettner, HSBC Chief Multi-Asset Strategist, says he struggles to see a big downside surprise in earnings. Clint Henderson, The Points Guy Managing Editor, discusses airline delays persisting ahead of the holiday weekend. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jordan Rochester, Head of FICC Strategy at Mizuho, analyzes the implications of Sanae Takaichi's expected rise as Japan's next prime minister and its potential impact on financial markets. Paul Donovan, Chief Economist at UBS, discusses how the U.S. government shutdown affects economic data reliability and the risks of permanent federal layoffs. Jay Goldberg, Senior Analyst at Seaport Research Partners, critiques the current AI-driven market enthusiasm, suggesting it may be bubble-like and highlighting the constraints on investment in AI infrastructure.

UBS Global Wealth Management Chief Economist, Liz Young from SoFi, former US Ambassador to Israel, and Lisa Mateo from Bloomberg discuss topics including economic data, markets, the political situation in Israel, leadership and partnership in finance, and the challenges faced by teachers in teaching social and political issues.

The podcast features Min Lan Tan, Paul Donovan, and Sundeep Gantori discussing topics like global rate cutting, US election impact on markets, predictions for Asian asset classes, implications of the US election on Asia, and insights on AI investments and valuations.

Paul Donovan, UBS Global Wealth Management Chief Economist, dives into the complexities of scapegoat economics and prejudice politics. He discusses how certain groups, especially immigrants, are unjustly blamed for economic woes, masking underlying issues. Donovan explores the dangers of economic nationalism, emphasizing that irrational choices can harm market efficiency. He also highlights the cyclical nature of political scapegoating in the U.S. and the potential repercussions of upcoming trade tariffs on competitiveness and pricing.

Join Paul Donovan, Chief Economist at UBS, and James Mazeau, Economist in UBS Global Wealth Management, as they unpack fascinating trends shaping global wealth. They discuss the rise of everyday millionaires and the complexities of measuring wealth distribution. Key insights include the great wealth transfer, the increasing prominence of wealthy women, and the emergence of new millionaire profiles, like the 'Emily.' Discover how shifts in generational wealth are changing the landscape of wealth management and the importance of thoughtful economic analysis.

Paul Donovan, Chief Economist for UBS GWM, dives into Germany's political and economic landscape, focusing on chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz's push for independence from the U.S. and plans for increased defense and infrastructure spending. The discussion highlights the surprising resilience of Germany's DAX index amid geopolitical tensions and examines consumer confidence despite recent economic challenges. Donovan also explores broader Eurozone dynamics and the potential impact of demographic trends on Europe's economic future.