Join Paul Donovan, Chief Economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, as he navigates the tangled web of economic data and public perception. He discusses the structural challenges facing Europe, questioning if current pessimism is exaggerated. Donovan highlights the impact of mismeasured data on our understanding of economic health, and examines the implications of U.S. tariffs on inflation and Federal Reserve policy. He also draws intriguing parallels between Europe’s economic trajectory and Japan’s stagnation, providing deep insights into global economic trends.

Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale Head of US Rates Strategy, sees a recession in the first half of 2024. Tom Forte, DA Davidson Sr. Research Analyst, discusses Apple as Citi sees another 30% upside. Paul Donovan, UBS Global Wealth Management Chief Economist, says we're seeing disinflation. Max Kettner, HSBC Chief Multi-Asset Strategist, says he struggles to see a big downside surprise in earnings. Clint Henderson, The Points Guy Managing Editor, discusses airline delays persisting ahead of the holiday weekend. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

UBS Global Wealth Management Chief Economist, Liz Young from SoFi, former US Ambassador to Israel, and Lisa Mateo from Bloomberg discuss topics including economic data, markets, the political situation in Israel, leadership and partnership in finance, and the challenges faced by teachers in teaching social and political issues.

The podcast features Min Lan Tan, Paul Donovan, and Sundeep Gantori discussing topics like global rate cutting, US election impact on markets, predictions for Asian asset classes, implications of the US election on Asia, and insights on AI investments and valuations.

In this insightful discussion, Paul Donovan, an expert in economic analysis, explores the contrasting consumer behaviors in the US and China. He highlights how the US job market shows resilience, with more people employed and earning higher wages, indicating a soft economic landing. Donovan critiques the Federal Reserve's delayed rate cuts and discusses how these decisions minimally impact the economy. He also delves into political sentiment's limited role in shaping market trends, providing a comprehensive look at current economic indicators.

In this discussion, Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS, delves into how the upcoming Trump administration's policies could reshape the global economy through tariffs and tax influences. Qasra Arabi sheds light on the urgency of the censure against Iran regarding its nuclear program. Paul Walde considers the implications of UK-made missiles in Ukraine on global trade. Ben Leather advocates for corporate accountability in the face of environmental damage. Harry Dempsey compares improvements in London's Elizabeth Line to Tokyo Metro's efficiency.

In this discussion, Paul Donovan, Chief Economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, dives into the political landscape following the Republican Senate call and the uncertainty of the House and presidency. He highlights how financial markets are responding to the possibility of a Trump victory, noting that campaign rhetoric may not fully translate into actual policies. The conversation also touches on voter concerns about inflation and examines key economic indicators in Europe, shedding light on the European Central Bank's stance amid these shifts.

Paul Donovan, a leading expert in financial markets and global economic trends, shares valuable insights on how politics often influences headlines without affecting financial outcomes. He discusses the muted impact of Middle East military actions on oil prices and safe-haven flows. Donovan highlights the significance of the far-right's success in Austria's elections, warning that the rise of prejudice politics could disrupt global trade and capital flows, ultimately undermining technological advancement.

Paul Donovan, an expert on economic trends and market analysis, discusses China’s bold economic measures, including interest rate cuts and eased homeownership regulations. He highlights the dramatic presentation of these policies and their aim to meet GDP targets. The conversation dives into how these moves reflect challenges reminiscent of Japan's past, while also examining varying global market sentiments in Europe and the U.S. Donovan's insights reveal a complex interplay between policy and market perception!

Paul Donovan, a prominent economic commentator, dives into the intriguing intersection of economics and politics. He discusses the unsettling return of 1970s policies, particularly the debate surrounding central bank independence. Highlighting President Biden's defense of the Fed's autonomy and Trump's suggestion of political influence, Donovan draws parallels between past and present leadership. He also analyzes recent economic data from Japan, Germany, and the UK, shedding light on consumer behavior and inflation dynamics.