The Tariff Announcement That Shocked Financial Markets
Feb 3, 2025
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Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, shares insights on the recent shockwaves in financial markets caused by aggressive tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. He explains the financial burden these tariffs impose on U.S. consumers and their potential inflationary effects. Donovan also delves into how tariffs impact international trade dynamics, the complexities of modern supply chains, and the potential reactions from central banks. His expert analysis helps untangle the ongoing implications of these economic moves.
U.S. consumers will ultimately bear the financial burden of tariffs, experiencing price increases due to additional costs beyond the tariff itself.
The tariff implementation could lead to short-term inflation but may risk long-term deflation if job losses and economic slowdown occur.
Deep dives
Impact of Tariffs on Consumers
The recent announcement of tariffs by the Trump administration on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China has sparked significant discussion regarding who will ultimately bear the financial burden. Contrary to initial claims that foreign countries would pay the tariffs, it is the U.S. consumers who will face the brunt of these costs. When goods arrive in the U.S. ports, tariffs are assessed, but they are not directly equal to a respective price increase for consumers. Thus, while a 25% tariff might imply a corresponding rise in prices, the reality is that consumers could expect an approximate 10% increase due to additional costs associated with transportation, marketing, and retailing.
Short-term vs. Long-term Economic Effects
In the immediate term, the introduction of these tariffs is expected to contribute to inflation as they function similarly to a sales tax, raising prices for consumers. However, over the long term, if the tariffs lead to job losses or reduced economic growth, the U.S. could enter a deflationary period. This complexity arises because while higher prices may increase inflation short-term, a subsequent downturn in demand and employment could exert downward pressure on prices. Therefore, the overall inflationary or deflationary impact of these tariffs remains uncertain and could greatly depend on how the economy responds in the coming months.
Complications of Global Supply Chains
Modern global trade increasingly relies on intricate supply chains where goods are often produced across multiple borders before they reach consumers. Tariffs imposed on intermediate goods can disrupt these supply chains, making it economically challenging for companies that rely on importing components for assembly. Each time a product crosses a border, it incurs additional tariffs, which can significantly increase overall costs. This situation highlights the outdated perspective some policymakers may hold regarding trade, as the dynamics of trade have evolved since the 1970s, making simplistic tariff approaches less effective in today’s context.
Over the weekend, President Trump announced that he was following through with his plan for aggressive tariffs. Imports from Canada and Mexico will now be hit with a 25% tariff, while China will get a 10% tariff. Although aggressive action was promised during the campaign, the news still rattled global financial markets, sending futures tumbling and the dollar spiking. Then, on Monday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced that after a discussion with Trump, the tariffs aimed at her country would be delayed by a month. Meanwhile, more talks with Canada and China are expected. So what exactly are the economics of such tariffs? Are they inflationary? Who pays for them? And what are the implications of these ongoing threats? On this episode, we speak with Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, who answers all of our questions on the still developing news and how things might play out.
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