Ryan Isakow, author of the No Dumb Ideas substack, dives into the intriguing history of prediction markets, focusing on 1500s Rome where betting on papal elections was all the rage. He reveals how social dynamics and insider info played into the gambling scene. Isakow discusses the implications of these markets for modern decision-making and the evolving relationship between politics, religion, and betting. Plus, he touches on how today's prediction markets echo those past practices, raising ethical questions about accountability and misinformation.

Kevin Erdmann, a senior affiliated scholar at the Mercatus Center, dives into the critical issue of housing affordability. He argues that overly strict lending standards post-Great Financial Crisis have wiped out the starter home market, making homeownership increasingly elusive for lower-income individuals. Erdmann suggests that loosening these standards could revitalize homebuilding, catering to those with lower FICO scores. The conversation explores the complexities of zoning laws, rising housing costs, and the potential for simple solutions to a pressing crisis.

Cathie Wood, the visionary founder and CEO of ARK Investment Management, shares her insights on the turbulent tech landscape. Despite a steep drop in stocks like Nvidia, she remains optimistic about AI and transformative technologies. Wood anticipates a resurgence reminiscent of the Reagan era for investors. She discusses the promising potential of healthcare innovations and Tesla's game-changing strategies in autonomous driving. Additionally, she addresses the challenges and opportunities within active equity management and long-term investment in AI-driven sectors.

Tim Opler, a biotech industry investment banker at Stifel, dives into the meteoric rise of the Chinese biotech sector, which jumped from 0% to 31% in molecules licensed to Big Pharma in just five years. He reveals how returning Chinese research scientists and lower clinical trial costs have driven innovation. The discussion also covers the contrasting drug development dynamics between China and the U.S., with insights on AI’s emerging role in drug discovery and the competitive landscape for pharmaceutical firms.

Carole LaBonne, a Professor of Molecular Biosciences at Northwestern University, dives deep into the implications of the Trump administration's NIH funding cuts. She discusses how the new 15% cap on indirect costs affects institutional overhead and research. LaBonne highlights the crucial role of indirect funding in fostering innovation and the challenges researchers face in securing grants. The conversation also touches on the competitive landscape between U.S. and Chinese research funding, revealing the urgent need for reform and its broader impact on public health.

George Saravelos, Head of currency research at Deutsche Bank, dives into Europe's significant shake-up with up to €800 billion in defense spending and relaxed debt rules in Germany. He discusses how these moves affect the euro and dollar amidst rising tariffs from the U.S. and a shifting political landscape. Saravelos also shares insights on market reactions, cautious optimism among corporate leaders, and the broader implications for global economic ties, highlighting the transformative moment for Europe and its financial future.

Eugene Fama, a Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences, and David Booth, founder of Dimensional Fund Advisors, dive into the tumultuous 1970s market landscape. They discuss the Efficient Market Hypothesis, asserting that markets are generally right and investors can't easily outsmart them. The duo reflects on their influential theories, the rise of passive investing, and how social media complicates market efficiency. They also touch on modern challenges in financial research, the dynamics of stock performance, and the evolving role of growth stocks in today's economy.

Ray Dalio, billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates and author of "How Countries Go Broke," dives deep into the U.S. debt crisis. He discusses the dynamics of debt cycles and what indicators signal an impending crisis. Dalio warns of potential economic instability and shares strategies for investors, including insights on Bitcoin and gold. He also reflects on historical economic challenges and the need for bipartisan solutions to manage national debt. Plus, hear how he had a hand in creating the beloved Chicken McNugget!

In this discussion, Jon Turek, founder and CEO of JST Advisors, shares his expertise on the current state of the US labor market and its increasing vulnerabilities. He highlights concerning trends, including a decline in sectors adding jobs and struggles within the housing market. Turek also delves into the implications of government efficiency and fiscal conditions that may hinder employment growth, cautions about the risks of an economic slowdown, and stresses the importance of monitoring these developments closely.

Jared Cohen, President of Global Affairs at Goldman Sachs, and George Lee, Co-head of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute, dive into today's turbulent geopolitical climate. They discuss the surprising implications of J.D. Vance's Munich speech on transatlantic relations and the unexpected toughness of U.S. tariffs. The duo also examines the rise of Gulf powers in AI, the significance of subsea cables, and the emerging position of geopolitical swing states like Japan and India, offering valuable insights for investors navigating these complexities.