Odd Lots

In this engaging conversation, Josh Wolfe, co-founder and managing partner at Lux Capital, dives into the complexities of the current AI boom. He shares insights on the precarious balance of market valuations as companies like Nvidia soar, while some startups face talent exodus. Wolfe discusses the evolving relationship between venture capitalists and founders, emphasizing the importance of aligned incentives. He also examines the risks posed to Silicon Valley's social contract amid the tech transformation, highlighting both opportunities and looming challenges in the industry.

For this week’s episode of Bloomberg’s Everybody’s Business, Joe Wiesenthal joins Max Chafkin and Stacey Vanek Smith to fact check President Trump’s recent claim that the “stock market needs the tariffs, they want the tariffs." Is it actually possible to tell how markets feel about tariffs? Do the markets even know themselves? The trio dives deep. Also on this episode, journalist and cultural commentator Sam Sanders of the Sam Sanders Show unpacks the lessons Hollywood is learning from its latest unexpected success: Netflix's mega-viral KPop Demon Hunters. And, finally, Stacey explain why—love them or hate them—tariffs are making your pumpkin spice latte (not to mention any pumpkin spice cat litter you happen to buy this fall) more expensive. Like this episode? Listen and Subscribe to Everybody’s Business on Apple, Spotify, iHeart or wherever you get your podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Steven Englander, the Global Head of G10 FX Research and North America Strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, dives into the peculiarities of the current labor market. He discusses the low unemployment rate and the puzzling slowdown in job creation, pointing to the complexities in interpreting non-farm payroll data. Englander also examines bond market stress, especially in Europe, and the evolving role of immigration, demographics, and AI in the workforce. His insights highlight the challenges of translating data into effective policy.

Julie Margetta Morgan, President of The Century Foundation and a former CFPB employee, dives into the booming Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) market. She explores how BNPL is reshaping consumer credit by offering a modern alternative to traditional financing. Julie discusses the surge in popularity linked to pandemic spending behaviors, the complexities of credit reporting, and concerns around hidden financial risks. Insights into how fintechs are navigating the regulatory landscape and leveraging consumer trends make this conversation particularly eye-opening.

Dan Wang, a research fellow at Stanford's Hoover History Lab and author of 'Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future,' dives into China's rapid economic ascent. He discusses key contrasts between U.S. and Chinese development approaches, revealing China's impressive infrastructure growth alongside market challenges. Wang explores the solar energy sector's debt issues, the impact of evolving policies on entrepreneurship, and the competitive AI landscape between the U.S. and China, emphasizing China’s complex political and economic dynamics.

Annie Massa, a Bloomberg Wealth reporter, joins the discussion about how the engagement of Taylor Swift and NFL star Travis Kelsey has ignited a surge in prediction markets. The conversation dives into the ethics of betting on celebrity futures and the rapid rise of online platforms dedicated to such predictions. They further explore regulatory challenges these markets face, including legal issues like an FBI raid, while shedding light on the broader societal impacts and biases within prediction trades. Tune in for a fascinating look at pop culture's influence on finance!

Emi Nakamura, a UC Berkeley professor and author of 'Beyond the Taylor Rule,' explores the evolving landscape of central banking in the wake of post-Covid inflation. She discusses the significance of central bank credibility in managing inflation and how historical success allows central banks to break from strict Taylor Rule guidelines. Nakamura also analyzes the lessons learned from various central banks' responses to recent economic pressures, emphasizing the balance of monetary policy in maintaining economic stability for the future.

Liz Truss, the former Prime Minister of the UK and author of '10 Years to Save the West', shares her insights on the UK's precarious fiscal situation. She reflects on her short-lived time in office and discusses the challenges of tax and spending. Truss critiques current economic strategies and advocates for reforms, especially regarding the Bank of England's independence. She also touches on the implications of Brexit, the state of free speech, and how political dynamics shape economic policies in Britain.

Lev Menand, a Columbia Law Professor and author of 'The Fed Unbound', discusses President Trump's controversial attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which raises alarms about central bank independence. He explains the legal complexities of 'for cause' dismissals and argues that unproven allegations shouldn't justify such actions. The conversation delves into how this move could reshape the relationship between presidential power and independent agencies, highlighting the risks of political influence on monetary policy and the implications for market dynamics.

In this engaging conversation, Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, delves into the surreal atmosphere of the Jackson Hole symposium amidst attacks on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. He discusses the threats to central bank independence and critiques Trump's trade policies. Posen also addresses the complexities of tariffs and their impacts on U.S. manufacturing, inflation, and global credibility, shedding light on the evolving economic landscape.