Odd Lots

Corey Geiger, lead dairy economist at CoBank, dives into the protein boom ignited by Fairlife milk, a brand that has reshaped the dairy market with its innovative processing. He discusses how Fairlife’s unique filtering process made it a top choice among consumers, even as traditional milk consumption declines. Geiger also addresses the influence of Coca-Cola's distribution on Fairlife's growth and shares insights on dairy pricing, farmer challenges, and the shifting preferences within fluid milk categories, helping us understand the future of the U.S. dairy landscape.

Conor Sen, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist specializing in labor market issues, dives into the confusing state of the U.S. job market. He discusses the lack of recent employment data due to a government shutdown and its implications for the Federal Reserve. Conor reveals how job growth is stalling outside of healthcare and examines the effects of AI on hiring trends. He also addresses the influences of reduced immigration, consumer spending shifts, and potential risks of rising unemployment, painting a complex picture of the economic landscape.

Dmitry Shevelenko, Chief Business Officer at Perplexity, explores the evolving landscape of AI and news media. He discusses how Perplexity combines search and AI to create a valuable learning platform, emphasizing the importance of editorial judgment over traditional publishers. Dmitry also shares insights on their competition with Amazon, the monetization of user subscriptions, and innovative ad concepts. He addresses the implications of AI on journalism, predicting opportunities for publishers to adapt and thrive in the new digital era.

Daniel Lurie, the new Mayor of San Francisco and former founder of Tipping Point Community, tackles urgent city issues like homelessness and the fentanyl crisis. He reveals how housing shortages and regional factors exacerbate these challenges. Lurie discusses innovative solutions like 24-hour outreach centers and the importance of cross-agency coordination. He passionately advocates for zoning reforms to ease housing shortages and emphasizes the vital role of AI in driving economic growth, while maintaining a balance with community needs.

Iain Dunning, Head of AI Research at Hudson River Trading and former DeepMind researcher, dives into the innovative use of AI in market making. He explains how large-scale machine learning is transforming short-term price predictions. Dunning highlights the challenges like labor and power constraints facing the field and contrasts new AI models with traditional approaches. He also touches on the role of data in trading, the complexity of neural networks, and how firms manage risks while pursuing market efficiency.

Larissa Schiavo, Communications lead at Eleos AI, explores the fascinating intersection of AI consciousness and welfare. The discussion covers the emerging idea of AI as potential moral patients who may experience forms of pleasure and pain, raising ethical dilemmas about their treatment. Larissa explains the importance of mechanistic interpretability for both AI safety and welfare, and proposes that society may need to establish rules for AI rights. The conversation delves into whether politeness towards AIs matters, and the implications of acknowledging conscious models for governance and societal values.

Brian Potter, an engineer and author of *The Origins of Efficiency*, dives deep into the reasons why building homes remains prohibitively expensive in America. He discusses the stagnation of housing productivity since the 1970s and the failed ambition of prefab housing startups like Katerra. Potter explains the complexities of modular construction, emphasizing how customization and varied regulations drive costs up. He also considers the potential for future automation in construction to mitigate these challenges, offering a glimpse of hope for more efficient homebuilding.

In this discussion, Austin Frerick, an antitrust and agricultural expert, delves into Sysco's dominance in the food distribution industry. He reveals how Sysco shapes restaurant menus across the U.S. through standardized sourcing, which critics argue leads to bland dining experiences. Austin highlights the challenges small distributors face in an environment dominated by contracts that limit choices. He also discusses issues like labor abuses in supply chains and proposes solutions to restore diversity in our food culture.

Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global and Pulitzer Prize-winning author, brings his expertise to discuss the shifting landscape of energy. He explores the realities behind the slowed progress towards net-zero, revealing the renewed dominance of natural gas and coal. Yergin highlights the tension between technological advancements and the slow pace of energy infrastructure, while also addressing how U.S. shale has reshaped global markets. He offers insights into China’s oil stockpiling motives, the rise of LNG exports, and the evolving dynamics of clean energy funding.

Hyun Song-Shin, an Economic Adviser at the Bank for International Settlements, shares insights on the shifting dynamics of the US dollar. He discusses the surprising 'triple decline' in April when stocks, bonds, and the dollar all fell. Hyun explains how institutional investors are using FX swaps to hedge against dollar exposure, revealing trends in hedging costs and the implications for long-term investor behavior. He also analyzes the roles of gold and emerging markets, noting that recent gains come from policy improvements rather than just a weaker dollar.